THE BEST coaches in Toyota AFL Dream Team do not become successful by picking stars.

We all know Lance Franklin is going to kick bags of goals and that Jimmy Bartel will have the ball on a string in plenty of games.

But what often proves to be the difference is the young pup that starts the season with only a handful or no games under his belt but by the end is one of the most important parts of your team.

Because of salary cap restraints, we all have to pick at least a couple of untried talents in the hope that they will turn out to be something special.

The temptation is always there to take one of the high-profile top-three selections from last year's NAB AFL Draft, but they are not necessarily the ones that will have an instant impact.

Instead you are better off looking at the more mature bodied players that may be ready for senior footy straight away.

A perfect example of this is Fremantle choosing Stephen Hill at pick three in last year's draft, instead of Daniel Rich, who went to the Brisbane Lions at pick seven.

Both have shown in the NAB Cup that they will be fine players but Hill, at just 69kg, may be found out against the mature bodies in senior football throughout his first season.

Rich, by contrast, is a stocky in-and-under player who can win his own ball against more experienced men and should rack up plenty of games at AFL level in 2009.

Last season the No.7 pick overall in the 2007 NAB AFL Draft, Rhys Palmer, experienced the highest rise in Dream Team value. At the end of the season, Palmer’s price soared by $253,400 and he took out the NAB Rising Star award.

No.4 pick Cale Morton was not far behind on the list of big movers, but one of the most discussed names in this year’s Dream Team is Brisbane Lion Bradd Dalziell, who jumped a massive $215,600 after playing just seven games.

Dalziell was a fourth-round selection but, at 21, he was a relatively old debutant, as was Demon Shane Valenti, who jumped $197,300.

Many eyebrows have been raised by Dalziell’s 2009 opening price of $420,200, but he scored in excess of 100 points in both the Lions’ NAB Cup matches, and looks set for a big year.

Dream Team coaches can be faced with the choice of an untried kid or a player who is cheap because he is coming back from injury.

But a glance at last year’s top-10 risers shows that the returning players don’t necessarily soar in value. Geelong’s Tom Lonergan was the only notable exception.

If you’re not looking for a huge rise, but still know that a player is underpriced, maybe have a look at last year’s list of top-ten sliders.

Most of the list are quality players who slumped a bit in form but should be able to return to their former glory.

One example is Collingwood’s Tarkyn Lockyer. He fell $149,200 throughout last year but hit back with a 149-point game against West Coast to be the No.1 ranked player in round one of the NAB Cup.

BIG RISERS OF 2008

Rhys Palmer
FRE
+$253,400
Cale Morton
MEL
+$239,400
Bradd Dalziell
BRL
+$215,600
Shane Valenti
MEL
+$197,300
Bradley Ebert
WCE
+$187,800
Tom Lonergan
GEE
+$177,200
Josh Hill
WBD
+$172,700
Sam Lonergan
ESS
+$171,700
Cyril Rioli
HAW
+$171,200
Ryan Gamble
GEE
+$162,600

BIG SLIDERS OF 2008
 
Tyson Stenglein
WCE
-$179,700
Troy Selwood
BRL
-$159,300
Tarkyn Lockyer
COL
-$149,200
Tim Notting
BRL
-$148,000
Hamish McIntosh
KAN
-$126,800
Chad Cornes
PTA
-$144,200
Dustin Fletcher
ESS
-$132,900
Scott Lucas
ESS
-$132,200
Chad Fletcher
WCE
-$129,300
Jed Adcock
BRL
-$129,200