Collingwood has been able to do what no other team has done (except Hawthorn in last year's grand final, obviously) and that's place an uncompromising attack on Geelong’s players and the ball for a full four quarters.
In round nine last year, when the Pies slaughtered Geelong by 86 points, Collingwood punished them in all facets of the game.
Of all the lopsided statistics from that night, three sets of figures stood out for me
- Contested ball – Collingwood 131 to Geelong 114
- Tackles – 85 to 49
- Inside 50s – 56 to 42
But this is Geelong we're talking about – they just don't get out-bustled in contested footy and they rarely record fewer forward 50m entries than their opponent. To illustrate, even the Hawks had 20 fewer inside 50m entries in their premiership win last year.
That the Pies were able to record that great a difference in those three areas says a lot about how they played that night.
Collingwood's pressure caused Geelong's worst recorded kicking efficiency – just 58 per cent. That is something the Cats are going to have to reproduce for them to be a chance tonight.
As we have seen over the last couple of years, some teams can match them for a period of time – like Richmond last week – but can't sustain it.
Geelong is clearly aware of the problems Collingwood has caused them in their last two outings (the NAB Cup grand final aside) but being aware doesn't mean the Cats will fix the problem. They have to action a plan to rectify it.
I'm sure they have been going into games in recent times with an amazing confidence in their ability to smash teams with their talent.
Tonight the only thing that can beat Geelong, is Geelong. Their mindset has to be all about turning the physical pressure onto the Pies and beat them at their own game.
Tackle, shepherd, spoil, chase and win the disputed ball – if they get that right, the fundamentals – like kicks, marks, handballs and goals – will come.
If you had to pick a flaw in Geelong, it would be the side’s unwillingness to change the way they play when things aren't going their way. Last year's grand final and Collingwood's thrashing of them last year are examples of this.
In that upset on the last Saturday in September, the Cats refused to change their forward line structure when it was clear it wasn't working. Against Collingwood they were the hunted all night and didn't turn the physical pressure back onto them.
This year Geelong is out to learn from its mistakes and seek retribution. I get the feeling that NAB Cup grand final victory was a sign of the Cats’ determination to right a couple of wrongs from 2008.
I'm sure tonight when you look at the stats that count, you will see a role reversal and one of last year's wounds will be repaired.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
