LIKE in any great game, success in Toyota AFL Dream Team is based on a combination of skill and chance. What percentage, though, is skill and what percentage is chance? Are the long hours of research, spreadsheeting and newspaper scanning really worth it? How skilful can it really be if you get spanked by your girlfriend in round three after she picked up Paul Chapman because, and I quote, “he has a nice shaped head”? Sometimes I wonder.

The Einstein factor
In my experience, how much luck you think is in Dream Team depends almost exclusively on how well your team is travelling. If you’re doing well, it’s a game for geniuses. If you’re doing poorly, it’s a game of footy-themed roulette. Victories are triumphs of statistics and strategy, whereas defeats are due to fate and poor fortune. One phrase you almost never hear in Dream Team is this –

“I was thoroughly outcoached this week and my loss was not unlucky in any way.”

It’s always –

“If only Travis Cloke had kicked straight!”
“If only Ben Cousins had stayed straight!”
“If only Raph Clarke’s hamstrings hadn’t spontaneously combusted, I would have smashed you by 60 points!”

The only thing worse than listening to your friends bitch about why you beat them, is hearing them explain why you didn’t. Everyone’s an expert once they’re winning and is happy to tell you why. Nowhere is this more apparent than in captain choice.

O captain, my captain

If any aspect of Dream Team involves luck, it’s got to be the selection of captains - but that’s not how people see it if they happen to get it right. If someone hits the jackpot, there’s always some ludicrous, convoluted explanation as to why their captain was the obvious choice - he plays well in the wet; he plays well in the dry; he averages 112 points when playing under lights, on Fridays, against the Demons, and on opponents who have goaties!

People spend hours weighing up this factor and that, before finally pulling the trigger and clicking the little 'C' button. As the coach of the mighty Mayors, I used to do this too, but every player I clicked on had their worst game for the year. That’s why we’ve gone back to basics at the Mayors. That’s why we don’t believe in leadership groups or co-captains or any of that other new-fangled nonsense people drone on about these days – we pick a captain for the year and we stick with him, 1950s style. 

Little Gaz has led the team well so far and we can only hope his form continues.  After all, Dream Team is a game for stayers not sprinters.     

Marathon men

It’s easier to think that luck plays a big role at the start of the Dream Team season. That’s because new coaches often start well and the “good teams” haven’t had a chance to distinguish themselves. At least, this is what I tell my girlfriend, who has outscored me in almost every round. 

Inexperienced coaches tend to be a bit too trigger-happy. Leigh Harding gets off to a flier, so they’re onto him. Jeff Garlett takes two marks, so they get him too. It’s like a giant game of Whack-a-Weasel, with potential recruits popping up everywhere and newbie coaches hammering away in all directions. Their scores might hold up for a while, but by the time the finals roll round, they’re out of trades, out of luck, and forced to play Jay Neagle at full-forward.

The Mayors’ hierarchy might know all of this, but it hasn’t made us any less nervous about our early results.  Last weekend I found myself in hospital in the tiny Queensland town of Chinchilla - with no internet, no phone reception, and no Dream Team results whatsoever. Anxious to find out if the skilful Mayors were outscoring my girlfriend’s fluky 'Daleks', I was forced to sneak out of bed, tow my saline drip behind me, and wander down the road in a dressing gown waving my phone in the air in a desperate attempt to get a signal.

It was one of the Mayors’ lowest moments, and we went down by five points.  

This week’s question

I know that everyone has an opinion on skill versus luck and I’d like to hear from you. Tell me which you think is more important and why and send your theories to dreamteam@afl.com.au, making sure to put ‘Hindy’ in the subject line. I’ll run the best answers in round six’s column.

Thanks for all your responses to round two’s question “I knew I was taking Dream Team too seriously when…”? David Phillips knew it when he accidentally introduced his wife as “Roughead” (I bet that went down well, David) and Rachelle Wright knew it when she went on holiday with her husband at a picturesque beach resort and spent half her time on a balcony waving her laptop around trying to catch a signal so she could check her Dream Team points. 

Cheers,

Hindy
CEO and coach of the Hindsight Mayors

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.