1. St Kilda
68 points (17 wins, no losses), 170.03 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Docklands
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Guaranteed a top-two finish. A trip to Tassie aside, the Saints have a relatively cruisy run to the finals and are unlikely to be moved from top spot between now and then.
2. Geelong
60 points (15 wins, two losses) 136.26 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Adelaide at Skilled Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 22: Fremantle at Skilled Stadium
The Cats still have a few challenges on their hands after pipping Hawthorn on Saturday. Two games at Skilled Stadium will help but matches against the Crows, Blues and the Bulldogs will test them.
3. Western Bulldogs
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 123.70 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Fremantle at Docklands
Rd 19: West Coast at Docklands
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Geelong at Docklands
Rd 22: Collingwood at Docklands
Still in third place but only on percentage. Playing both West Australian teams at home should result in wins, but the Dogs could slip out of the top four if they lose their last three matches, all against top five sides.
4. Collingwood
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 115.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Three of the Pies’ remaining five games are at the MCG, which should hold them in good stead for the finals. Adelaide and the Bulldogs are the toughest remaining opponents.
5. Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, six losses), 111.89 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Geelong at Skilled Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Docklands
A top-four spot will be tough going, with four difficult games ahead. The West Coast match should be a win but that is the only one the Crows would pencil in at this stage.
6. Brisbane Lions
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 111.39 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
The Lions could find their way into the top four with a win over Collingwood next week. They have a good run in to September and could be a major player in the finals if everything clicks.
7. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, eight losses), 108.34 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Adelaide at Docklands
The Blues are still a chance of missing the finals but have a pretty good run home. North Melbourne and Melbourne should be pencilled in as wins but the other three will be tricky.
8. Essendon
32 points (eight wins, nine losses) 100.94 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Docklands
Rd 21: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
The Bombers have a pretty good run home but Sunday's loss to Richmond could prove to be costly. Two trips to Perth will be taxing but both should result in wins.
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9. Hawthorn
32 points (eight wins, nine losses) 93.03 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Could have slipped in to the eight with a win over Geelong. It wasn’t to be, and Hawthorn’s season still hangs in the balance. Richmond in round 21 is the only 'easy' game and they will have to cause a couple of upsets to make it to September.
10. Port Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, nine losses) 90.90 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 20: Carlton at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
The Power have a pretty good run but need to produce the goods away from home if they are to make the finals. Home games against Hawthorn and Carlton are winnable while they should beat North Melbourne and Fremantle.
11. Sydney Swans
28 points (seven wins, 10 losses) 91.18 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: Geelong at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the SCG
Finals are looking very unlikely for the Swans, even after Sunday's win over Melbourne. Games against St Kilda, Geelong and Collingwood represent major hurdles, as does the clash with the Brisbane Lions in the final round.
What are you doing this September? Find out with afl.com.au's ladder predictor
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
