1. St Kilda
76 points (19 wins, one loss), 158.13 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
One week after beating beaten Hawthorn with a virtual B-team, the Saints turn out to be mortal after all. Sunday's heart-stopping finish changes little on the ladder, except that top spot is not yet officially the Saints' – if you allow for an unlikely series of hundred-point hidings.
2. Geelong
68 points (17 wins, three losses) 128.53 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 22: Fremantle at Skilled Stadium
Will finish second and host a qualifying final. Collingwood is the most likely opponent, which would mean a rematch of the classic 2007 preliminary final. The Bulldogs will provide a useful finals tune-up next Friday night, before what should be a party atmosphere for the Cats' final home game against Freo.
3. Collingwood
56 points (14 wins, six losses) 123.37 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
The Pies are red hot, having seen off finals contenders Carlton, the Brisbane Lions and Adelaide in the past month before adding Richmond's pelt to the wall on Saturday. They will be heavily favoured to beat the Swans next Sunday; a result which will secure third spot unless the Bulldogs upset Geelong.
4. Western Bulldogs
52 points (13 wins, seven losses) 122.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Geelong at Docklands
Rd 22: Collingwood at Docklands
Saturday's raid at the Gabba revived the Dogs' hopes of earning a double chance, after a dreadful loss to West Coast in round 19. Win one of their two tough closing matches, and they should hold onto fourth place. Lose both games, and either Adelaide or Carlton will almost certainly bump the Bullies. That would be a hammer blow to a side which has been in the four for the majority of the season.
5. Carlton
48 points (12 wins, eight losses), 112.90 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Adelaide at Docklands
Will play finals for the first time in eight years, but the question for the Blues is how many finals will they play? Overhauling the Bulldogs could come down to percentage, which means Carlton will be looking to trounce the Demons next week. That leaves a mouthwatering finale against Adelaide at home.
6. Adelaide
48 points (12 wins, eight losses), 110.32 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Docklands
Arrested a run of three losses in four games to topple the premiers and book a finals place. The Crows can fall only as low as seventh. They could still finish fourth if they upset Carlton on the last Saturday in August and other results go according to current ladder position.
7. Brisbane Lions
46 points (11 wins, eight losses, one draw) 106.10 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Blew their big chance to finish in the top four by losing to the Bulldogs. On form, the Lions' remaining games should be wins, which would be enough to finish either fifth or sixth and secure a home elimination final. Fourth place is a mathematical possibility, but would require Adelaide and Carlton to win no more than one more game each (they meet in round 22), and the Bulldogs to lose twice.
8. Essendon
38 points (nine wins, 10 losses, one draw) 99.47 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Sunday's result ranks as nothing short of a football miracle, lifting the Dons back into the eight. Whether they will stay there depends on which Essendon side plays out the home-and-away season. If the team that toppled the Saints turns up at Subiaco and the MCG, Bomber fans can look forward to their first final since 2004. If the outfit that lost to Richmond and West Coast resurfaces, disappointment may yet lie in store.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Port Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, 11 losses) 88.63 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Coach Mark Williams conceded after last week's loss to Fremantle that the Power did not deserve their spot in the eight, and Sunday's capitulation to Carlton can hardly have changed his opinion. Only poor form elsewhere has kept Port in touch, and Essendon's renaissance may finally end their hopes.
10. Sydney Swans
32 points (eight wins, 12 losses) 95.08 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the SCG
How different this picture might have looked if this month's nailbiters against St Kilda and Geelong had gone the Swans' way. Had they won both, they would now be clear in eighth position. Instead, those narrow losses leave them six points adrift of the finals, praying that Port and Essendon win no more.
11. Hawthorn
32 points (eight wins, 12 losses) 90.42 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Friendly results elsewhere have strung Hawks supporters along for weeks. Despite a fourth straight loss on Friday, their premiership defence is still not dead – although it is now on life support. Hawthorn can make the finals if all of the following happen:
- Essendon loses at Subi next week
- Port Adelaide loses at the Gabba or to North Melbourne
- The Swans lose to either Collingwood or the Lions; or win by margins narrow enough for the Hawks to overhaul them on percentage
- Hawthorn beats Richmond and Essendon, and makes up the percentage gap on the Swans
What are you doing this September? Find out with afl.com.au's ladder predictor
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
