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1. St Kilda
76 points (19 wins, two losses), 154.99 per cent

The run home:
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG

In round 19, the Saints beat Hawthorn with a virtual B-team and appeared immortal. Two heart-stopping losses later to Essendon and North Melbourne, and suddenly the wheels are off on the eve of the finals. The results won't cost St Kilda anything but sleepless nights, with the minor premiership sealed courtesy of Geelong's own latest loss on Friday. Isn't a fortnight a long time in footy?

2. Geelong
68 points (17 wins, four losses) 125.95 per cent

The run home:

Rd 22: Fremantle at Skilled Stadium

Like St Kilda, goes into the finals in poor form, with the remaining home-and-away fixture against lowly opposition. Collingwood is the Cats' most likely qualifying final opponent, which would mean a rematch of the classic 2007 preliminary final. But the Cats could also face a return bout against Friday night's victors, the Bulldogs.

3. Collingwood
60 points (15 wins, six losses) 125.03 per cent

The run home:

Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Docklands

The Pies are the league's in-form team, having seen off finals contenders Carlton, the Brisbane Lions, Adelaide and the Swans in the past five weeks. Another tough game looms in Sunday's twilight slot. The result will determine whether Collingwood plays St Kilda or Geelong in the first week of the finals.

4. Western Bulldogs
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 122.21 per cent

The run home:
Rd 22: Collingwood at Docklands

Can gain or lose only one spot on the ladder, but that is the difference between the double chance and an elimination final. Beat the Pies by around six goals, and the Dogs will finish third. If they win more narrowly they will stay fourth and play St Kilda in a qualifying final. Lose, and they could be leapfrogged by the winner of Carlton-Adelaide clash at Docklands. Consecutive wins over the Lions and Geelong will have been a huge fillip.

5. Carlton
52 points (13 wins, eight losses), 115.27 per cent

The run home:

Rd 22: Adelaide at Docklands

The finals start next week for the Blues. A tight win against the Crows would set up an elimination final, most likely against an old foe – Essendon or Hawthorn. A big win coupled with a heavy Bulldogs loss could see Carlton sneak into fourth place, which wouldn't be a bad way to begin your first finals campaign in eight years. A loss, on the other hand, could mean a do-or-die trip to the Gabba.

6. Adelaide
52 points (13 wins, eight losses), 114.42 per cent

The run home:
Rd 22: Carlton at Docklands

Kept pace with the Dogs, Blues and Lions by thumping the Eagles on Saturday. As was the case after round 20, the Crows can fall only as low as seventh and could still finish fourth if they upset Carlton and the Dogs lose.

7. Brisbane Lions
50 points (12 wins, eight losses, one draw) 106.62 per cent

The run home:

Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Digging themselves out of a 47-point hole against Port Adelaide might have bought the Lions a home final. Had they lost on Saturday, Michael Voss's team would certainly have finished seventh. Now, beating the Swans will lift them above either the Blues or Crows, who both cannot win as they meet in the final round. A draw between those two sides is the only complicating factor – that would leave the Lions needing to make up a hefty percentage gap.

8. Essendon
38 points (nine wins, 11 losses, one draw) 96.84 per cent

The run home:
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

One Sunday afternoon, the Bombers topple St Kilda and earn a spot in the eight. The next, a calamitous loss to Fremantle leaves them looking over their shoulders. Next Saturday's match against the Hawks is now effectively an elimination final. Percentage doesn't matter to the Dons. Win and they are in. Lose and their finals drought will extend to a sixth year.

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9. Hawthorn
36 points (nine wins, 12 losses) 92.96 per cent

The run home:
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG

Four straight losses failed to kill off the Hawks, and now Saturday's win over Richmond means their finals fate is back in their own hands. To make the eight, Hawthorn must beat Essendon and maintain its percentage gap over Port Adelaide. If they do so, the premiers will become only the second side to reach the finals with 40 points since the eight was introduced back in 1994.

10. Port Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, 12 losses) 88.50 per cent

The run home:
Rd 22: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium

Like Hawthorn, Port remains in contention despite a wretched run of results – but only just. The Power need Hawthorn to win next week, and they need to make up a percentage deficit to the Hawks of 4.46 per cent. Even if Hawthorn sneaks over the line, that equates to a massive 100-point win over North. While this sounds fanciful, there is a recent precedent. St Kilda beat Essendon by 108 points this time last year to displace Adelaide in the top four.

What are you doing this September? Find out with afl.com.au's ladder and finals predictor

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.