IT WAS 27 hours, give or take a minute, after the siren had sounded at Skilled Stadium on a bleak Saturday for the Melbourne Football Club that the decision was made, apparently, to lay the blame on coach Dean Bailey.

Bailey has coached this club for three seasons, and 83 games, yet it took a record-breaking defeat at the hands of Geelong — unbeaten in its last 28 starts at its fortress — for the axe to fall.

Why is it so?

All sorts of theories will abound, and indeed are already out there. Twitter, Facebook, the message boards and talkback radio were full of theories - Bailey couldn’t coach, Bailey wasn’t tough enough, the problem wasn’t the coach but sections of the administration, and that the performance was a protest by the players against them.

All these theories would appear to have some element of truth to them, but the real story at Melbourne is yet to emerge. But, as was the case with Neil Craig a week earlier, we can be amazed at how quickly a coach's security can all came tumbling down.

The two big questions at Melbourne now are where this leaves Tom Scully, and who will be the next coach? And will the answer to the second question also provide the answer to the first?

If Scully is weighing up between remaining with the Demons and accepting the massive offer from Greater Western Sydney, the second question he would like answered is who will be his coach next year (after the cash incentive is confirmed). The Giants can tell him - it will be Kevin Sheedy with significant input from Mark Williams. Between them, they have won five AFL premierships, and the certainty of this fact must be attractive to Scully and his advisers.

But before he gives up on the Demons entirely, Scully should understand that perhaps never in the last 50 years has the Melbourne Football Club been as well-placed as now to go after the best coach available.

With the exception of famous (and ill-fated) homecoming of Ron Barassi in 1981, Melbourne has never made a splash with its new coaches. Some were former Melbourne players (John Beckwith, Ian Ridley, Dennis Jones and Carl Ditterich); others were assistants from other clubs with impressive CVs (Neale Daniher and Bailey). Bob Skilton and John Northey, meanwhile, both came to the club after underwhelming stints with the Swans. Neil Balme came with a big reputation from Norwood.

For all its connections to the top end of town, Melbourne has never been a club rolling in cash and therefore unable to splash big bucks on a coach. Only when it lured Barassi back, has Melbourne’s choice of coach made the rest of the footy world sit up and take notice.

But thanks to the fabulous efforts of president Jim Stynes and chief executive Cameron Schwab, the Demons are now debt-free. The understanding is that the money is in place for Melbourne to go really hard at a big name and to make the right coach for the moment — and the next five years — the sort of offer that he simply cannot refuse. That coach won't be attracted by money, but by his analysis of the potential of Melbourne's list, and what is needed to get it to top-four status.

There are five weeks of home and away football and then a month of finals, remaining in 2011. In order to get the best coach available, the Demons should wait until after the Grand Final before making their choice. If the big names knock them back, the hot young assistants will still be in play —including the caretaker, Todd Viney, whose pedigree is all but flawless. One knock on Viney, a flimsy one at that, is that only Paul Roos — of a dozen or so caretakers who became coaches — has taken his team to a premiership.

The decision to change coaches in mid-season has two upsides — the past is immediately purged, and focus is immediately on the future, rather than managing moments like the aftermath of Saturday's debacle at Skilled Stadium.

So what of Dean Bailey? From all reports, a ripping bloke, who came from well back in the field to win the job at Melbourne at the end of 2007.

He was on a hiding to nothing when he started. The playing list was old and tired. His brief was to cut the dead wood, play the kids and not worry about the win-loss record, at least for the first two seasons. So any discussion about his coaching record should come with an asterix because whatever his KPIs were for the first two seasons, wins and losses weren’t high among them.

Since then, the Demons took some forward steps, but they were baby steps. And every few weeks there would be a setback of some sort of another - usually a thrashing from one of the power teams of the competition. With the unusual exception of Collingwood in 2010 (a draw and a one-point defeat) Melbourne couldn’t get close to Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton and St Kilda. They went 0 for 11 under Bailey at Etihad Stadium.

The Demons could look irresistible in beating up on interstate teams such as Adelaide and Fremantle at the MCG, yet against the Cats and Hawks and others, would be smashed at contested footy and generally before quarter-time, on the scoreboard. Following the loss to Carlton in round 10, they stood accused of playing "bruise-free footy".

They then rebounded to beat Essendon, and pranced around the MCG afterwards in a manner befitting a team that had won a Grand Final. Has there been a more cringeworthy football moment in recent memory?

The loss to Geelong on Saturday was the final straw with even Bailey, whose poise and subtle humour was so admirable as the season wore on and the pressure grew, admitting the loss — "a kick in the arse", he described it — wasn’t a great outcome for a coach in the final year of his contract.

The "brand", a term so favoured by Stynes and Schwab in their otherwise successful re-build of the club, was never going to withstand a defeat of that magnitude without a change being made.

The Demons had no other choice than to remove Bailey. But they’d be kidding themselves if they thought he was the sole reason behind the club’s malaise.

CLUB BY CLUB

COLLINGWOOD: Five goals in front of 73,000 fans at the MCG would suggest that Alex Fasolo has what it takes to play a meaningful role for the Magpies in the finals. But it begs the question of whether he will even make the side come September. Can he and Jarryd Blair play in the same full-strength line-up? It is yet another pleasant selection dilemma for Mick Malthouse.

GEELONG: Wonder what the winning margin would have been had the match against the Demons been at the MCG or Etihad Stadium. Probably closer to 20 goals - still super impressive of course, but it again highlights how blessed the Cats are with the home ground draw they receive each year.

HAWTHORN: The recruitment of David Hale raised a few eyebrows at the time, but has proved to be a masterstroke by the Hawks. Who would have believed he would have played so well in such monsoonal conditions such as those at Patersons Stadium on Saturday night? Finally faces his old club for the first time at Aurora Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

CARLTON: Ground out the win over North Melbourne in what we discovered afterward was a statement game for the Blues. Who knew? For the Blues, it will come down to the Hawthorn game in round 22. Win that Friday night clash and the double chance might well be theirs; beware, however, the current ladder is slightly misleading, as the Blues have played one more game than third-placed Hawthorn, which also has a percentage advantage over Carlton.

WEST COAST: Not running out games in the best of fashion. But with a relatively benign draw between now and the finals, it probably won't matter. Top four still beckons. And if Dean Cox didn’t have the All Australian ruck position sewn up before the weekend, he does now.

SYDNEY SWANS: Great excitement for the Swans with respects to Sam Reid, a key forward they can build their side around for the next 10 years. Midfield still needs a bit more polish to get the ball down to him as quickly and as often as possible.

ST KILDA: Two great line-breaking goals from Brett Peake against Gold Coast on Saturday night. Not many would have pegged him as one of the key reasons behind St Kilda's second-half revival in 2011.

FREMANTLE: Didn't match Hawthorn for desire and ball use when it really counted on Saturday night. Losing the toss, and the monsoonal weather in the second term only told part of the tale, despite what Mark Harvey might say. Can still play finals, but needs a big scalp in the run home to get there. St Kilda, Carlton, North Melbourne, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs are still to come.

ESSENDON: Collingwood’s talent would have won out in the end on Sunday, but surely the Bombers would have been closer than 74 points with a full complement of fit and available players on the bench.

NORTH MELBOURNE: Attacked the Blues with their trademark grit, but still don’t have a win against a top four side in the Brad Scott era. The Kangaroos looked dead on their feet in the final quarter on Friday night. North has been at it for 16 weeks (it had the bye in round 3 and again in round 21) and now heads to the cavernous Aurora Stadium, where it's 2-2 since 2006.

MELBOURNE: We can’t recall a team replacing a coach so late in the season while still in contention for the finals. Beat either of Carlton (MCG) or West Coast (Etihad Stadium) in the next fortnight, and the Demons could still make the finals because the final three matches - Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast (MCG) and Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) are all winnable.

WESTERN BULLDOGS: The first half against the Eagles on Saturday was Melbourne-like. The second half was Collingwood-like. Given the outs, the Bulldogs put in a reasonable performance and gave the impression of a club that still cares.

RICHMOND: Big five weeks for the Tigers. Damien Hardwick will keep turning over the list as required, so a few of Richmond boys will be playing for their careers over the remainder of the season.

ADELAIDE: Patrick Dangerfield to the midfield was a spark for Adelaide and Taylor Walker booted four goals. Nice win for Adelaide, but the Crows are really playing out the string.

BRISBANE LIONS: Great to read that Simon Black wants to go around for a 15th season. Michael Voss needs him.

GOLD COAST: The Suns did enough around the ground to give themselves a chance to beat the Saints, but converted poorly in front of goal. Competitive five-goal losses against good teams are the next steps in the evolution of the Suns.

PORT ADELAIDE: How can we add to the comments of the coach, Matt Primus, who declared his side not to be up to "AFL standard". Port had plenty of chances in the last half, but lost it with poor use in the front half. Plenty of soul-searching on and off the field during the next six months.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Steve Johnson (Geelong): With seven goals, 11 score assists, 34 possessions and five clearances, the Geelong magician put on a show on Saturday against the Demons. And with all the talk about how poor were the Demons, let’s not forget how wonderful the Cats were. Best of all, they seemed to enjoy themselves. Footy can be fun.

NEXT WEEK’S GAME NOT TO BE MISSED: Essendon-Sydney at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night is big for both clubs and their finals aspirations. But Carlton-Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday afternoon will be big for obvious reasons, as will Geelong-Gold Coast at Skilled Stadium at the same time, featuring the return "home" of Gary Ablett. Having gone within a whisker of breaking all sorts of records last Saturday, the Cats could give them a shake once more this weekend if they have the inclination.

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL