THIS week's Grand Final looks set to follow the recent trend of nail-biters and I believe it could all hinge on one bit of anatomy - Darren Jolly's groin.

I rate Jolly only marginally behind Travis Cloke as Collingwood's most important player. If I were the opposition, I would identify Jolly as one of the most valuable in the black and white.

All week long there has been speculation over his groin and whether he will be fit to play. That will be an enormous decision for the Collingwood strength and conditioning staff.

This time last year, Leigh Brown was in career-best form as a forward/back-up ruckman but he hasn't had a great last couple of weeks and the support he is giving Jolly is not as strong as it has been.

Brown's main role in what will be his last AFL game will most likely be as a defensive forward on Matthew Scarlett and his ruck time will be minimal.

So if Jolly is not good to go, the next cab off the rank is Cameron Wood who has been a bit-part player in his time at the Magpies.

But the gap in ability and output between Jolly and Wood is huge and Geelong will be at a massive advantage if we see a ruck combination of Wood and Brown against Brad Ottens and Trent West.

Jolly was recruited from the Sydney Swans to perform a role he has done perfectly. He is a great competitor and fantastic around the contest.

You never get smashed in the ruck if Darren Jolly is your ruckman. But if you look at the Collingwood teams before he came to the club, they had a definite weakness in the ruck that will only resurface in his absence.
 
The Magpies are facing a ruck combination in great shape. Ottens has always been a player who needs games under his belt but has a way of timing his run beautifully for the finals.

He is perfectly set for grand final day. He was one of the best on ground in the first final against Hawthorn and looks set to be continue his good record at the business end of the season.

His understudy West is one of the real surprise packets of the season.

He has had a massive second half of the year and has proven himself to be far beyond where I thought he was.

West is a genuine ruckman if he continues to develop the way the Cats want him to and I can see that he he has a bit of Shane Mumford about him. Plus he can offer something up forward as well, which is a handy trick to have for any ruckman.

Jolly's availability is a massive selection problem if you are Collingwood. If you get him to somewhere near 80 per cent fitness you have to wonder if you take the risk of being one man down early on in the game. This risk is only compounded by the fact that Ben Reid is under a similar injury cloud.

You could mount a case for either team but with so many Collingwood players last week playing their poorest game for 12 months, I believe that could be a spark, a get-out-of-jail-free card if you like.

I've never ever seen Dale Thomas fumble like that for two years while Nick Maxwell struggled for the first three quarters.

Scott Pendlebury was off for a half of footy while Sharrod Wellingham, Harry O'Brien and Leon Davis were a little off.

I can't imagine that group of players having another final quite like that.

Those players will all be vastly improved, but the uncertainty around Jolly's fitness could be the difference between tipping it one way or the other.

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs