NORTH Melbourne has reached an interesting point in the Brad Scott era.

Patience is one thing but a realistic and hard-edged appraisal is also necessary.

Five losses by a margin of less than a goal and four losses after being ahead at three-quarter time led to this statement from Scott post-game Friday night after North's second one-point loss for the season.

"This season is just unfolding in extraordinary circumstances for us. It can be the making of us or it can be the undoing of us," Scott said.

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Concluding what is needed to enable the club to take the next step in the next few seasons is difficult.

Scott knows that he has good young players in his team such as Ryan Bastinac, Shaun Atley and Ben Cunnington.

Yet all three have also been guilty of game-changing mistakes at various times throughout the season; from being sucked into the contest, losing concentration or trying to do too much.

Scott will handle that situation well because anyone who takes football watching seriously knows he is a good coach.

He is also young and still learning.

His comment on Friday suggests he backs his players too: "The confidence I have got in the character of players we have got representing our footy club is unshakeable."

Although this characteristic is a positive it also suggests Scott needs to be smart enough at the end of the season to open the club up to an experienced outside voice to assess exactly where the team sits.

This could be a new director of football - football manager Donald McDonald has declared his intention to work in a new role at the football club in 2014 - or a few fresh assistant coaches.

Because the only mistake North Melbourne is likely to make between here and future success is what decision-making experts call "the exaggerated optimism of the planning fallacy".

Think about it. Anyone in Scott's position would be susceptible to overestimating the club's prospects of future success. It's only natural.

Overestimating the chances of success based on the natural progression of players is one risk that outside views could temper.

Because a back of the envelope historical comparison suggests North Melbourne's future is very rosy if the right decisions happen from now.



North Melbourne players contemplate another narrow loss, this time to Carlton. Picture: AFL Media

Ten years ago last Sunday, Geelong lost to the Western Bulldogs by 18 points. It charged home from being 64 points down in the third quarter to be within three goals with three minutes to go. But it lost to a team that had not won for 112 days and was in the middle of a poor season.

At that stage the Cats had five wins and a percentage of 87.9.

The Cats had 11 players aged under 23 in the team with Gary Ablett (28 games), Jimmy Bartel (19), Paul Chapman (45), Joel Corey (55), Corey Enright (49), Steve Johnson (21), James Kelly (27), Cameron Ling (59) and David Wojcinski (49) at the start of their careers. Other youngsters David Spriggs (54) and Brent Moloney (three) would not emerge with that group.

Its 39-year-old coach, Mark Thompson, was nearing the end of his fourth season as Cats' coach with a winning percentage at that stage of 44.5 percent.

Against the Blues, North Melbourne had nine players under 23: Shaun Atley (55 games), Ryan Bastinac (73), Aaron Black (16), Ben Cunnington (68), Taylor Hine (20), Jamie Macmillan (52), Brad McKenzie (7), Aaron Mullett (25) and Jack Ziebell (75).

Its 37-year-old coach, Brad Scott, nears the end of his fourth season as coach with a winning record of 49.4 percent.

North Melbourne has six wins and a percentage of 114.8.

Both coaches had one finals loss to show for their efforts after four seasons.

It took Geelong another four seasons to win a flag. North Melbourne might be closer but not much closer than the Cats were 10 years ago.

The Cats had led at quarter-time on six occasions in 2003 and lost.

North has done that seven times this season.

The Eagles did the same as North Melbourne in 2010 and made a preliminary final in 2011. Adelaide did the same in 2011 and made a preliminary final the next season.

Of course, an outsider would tell them too that the Brisbane Lions led nine times at quarter-time in 2011 and lost. They then finished 13th with 10 wins last season.

Nothing can be taken for granted as the Kangaroos work through this difficult time.

Variables change all the time, making parts of the same season hard enough to compare, let alone teams one, two or 10 years apart.

"We've got to make sure it is the making of us," Scott said.  "This could be a platform for us in the future but it will only be that if we make it."  

And listening to trusted outsiders about what has taken place should be an essential part of the process.