THE WINNER of this year's captivating NAB AFL Rising Star race will almost certainly have to finish the season strongly and play 20-plus matches.

Hawthorn defender Ryan Burton is the favourite ($1.70 with CrownBet) for the 2017 award, but Port Adelaide midfield bull Sam Powell-Pepper ($3.50) and Essendon's No.1 draft pick Andy McGrath ($3.25) are genuine contenders.

Most experts are tipping one of that trio to be victorious, although Carlton's Charlie Curnow ($26) is gathering steam and Brisbane Lion Eric Hipwood ($51) has stood up in the competition's bottom side.

Powell-Pepper and Hipwood have featured in all 16 of their team's matches this season, and the other three missed just one contest each, so games played won't separate them at this stage.

Sydney's Dan Hannebery (2010, 19 home-and-away matches) and Adam Goodes (1999, 19), Geelong's Joel Selwood (2007, 18), West Coast's Ben Cousins (1996, 18), Hawthorn's Nick Holland (1995, 15) and Lion Chris Scott (1994, 19) are the only Rising Stars to play fewer than 20 games. 

The three-way competition in 2017 looms as the tightest since another Lion, Lewis Taylor, pipped future Western Bulldogs superstar Marcus Bontempelli by one vote three years ago. Kangaroo Luke McDonald was only six votes further back.

Noteworthy that season was Taylor's withering final three rounds, in which he amassed consecutive season-high disposal tallies of 24 and 26 then 22. He had won 20 or more just four times before that stretch.

Meanwhile, Bontempelli, who played 16 games to Taylor's 22, had 16 or fewer possessions in five of his last seven outings in 2014. It was a similar story for McDonald, who missed the final match of the year and averaged only 14.8 touches in his previous four.

Adelaide full-back Daniel Talia won the 2012 edition by eight votes from Greater Western Sydney forward Jeremy Cameron, but the latter's season-ending hip injury in round 19 cruelled his hopes.

Crows ball magnet Brad Crouch could not catch then-Gold Coast midfielder Jaeger O'Meara for the 2013 honour despite averaging 27.3 disposals in his final six games. But it was likely the reason he was runner-up ahead of Port's Ollie Wines, who topped 18 possessions just twice in his last 10 matches after a strong start.

Debate continues to rage on which of second-year Hawk Burton or draftees Powell-Pepper and McGrath – all top-20 picks – has been the most impressive this season.

Powell-Pepper's intimidating bash-and-crash midfield style has earned him many admirers, and his 9.1 contested possessions and 3.2 clearances per match dwarf that of McGrath (4.9, 0.5) and Burton (4.6, 0.3).

But it is hard to compare what he is doing to two rivals playing in the backline with a vastly different role.

Rising Star judges had to distinguish in 2015 between Melbourne spearhead Jesse Hogan's 2.2 goals and 2.4 contested marks and Carlton onballer Patrick Cripps' 23.6 disposals (13.7 contested) and 6.7 clearances. Hogan won by eight votes.

Burton's 21.1 possessions edge out McGrath (19.8) and Powell-Pepper (18.3). McGrath's 83 per cent disposal efficiency beats Burton's 81, while Powell-Pepper's 68 must be viewed in his midfield context.

Burton also ranks first among the trio for marks, metres gained, intercept possessions and rebound 50s, and second for tackles, score involvements and inside 50s to Powell-Pepper.

There is a case for all three of them, but, in a close race like this, history suggests a barnstorming finish could be the difference in swaying the 10 judges.

2017 nominees

NAB AFL Rising Star winners: 1993-present