MATCH SUMMARY
Both teams will have feelings of trepidation for different reasons going into the 2010 final series.

Collingwood has been the best team all season with an outfit capable of making it to the last weekend in September. However the Magpies’ last two home and away games were well below the scintillating form that they demonstrated for most of the year. This could have been attributed to the fact that they already had the minor premiership in the bag and switched their focus to the bigger picture of a healthy list for September.

Conversely, the Bulldogs have struggled to provide a fit list, with major injuries to key players: Adam Cooney (hamstring), Dale Morris (back), Ryan Griffen (bone bruising of the knee) and Brad Johnson (achilles), plus Brian Lake restricted by sore groins.

The finals are a new season - everybody starts from scratch again as wins in the home and away season mean little, but history will tell you that you need your stars to be fit, re-charged and ready to launch into the cauldron of battle through September.

BACKLINE  v BACKLINE
Collingwood
The key stats show that Collingwood restricted its opposition on average to 43 forward-50 entries, ranking the Pies second in the competition. By comparison, the Bulldogs ranked eighth. Collingwood’s forward pressure is so good that defenders have the luxury of coming forward to defend in the midfield rather than the defensive 50m area.

They are excellent at playing tight and winning one-on-ones through Harry O’Brien, Heath Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo, Alan Toovey, Ben Reid and Nick Maxwell), so most times they cut off the hit-up kicks.  As a group they have the ability to be third-man in to support other defenders when they have their own direct opponent out of the contest.

Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have a different style in which they would rather drop back forwards and midfielders into the defensive 50 to assist the likes of  Lake, Lindsay Gilbee, Ryan Hargrave, Andrejs Everitt, Jarrod Harbrow and Robert Murphy, as they are not great defenders one-on-one. Statistics show that they are better than the Magpies at defending the back 50m area but only through extra support.

The support from midfielders and forwards pushing defensively to block the leading lanes means the ball hits the deck more often, which brings the Bulldogs defenders strength into play as they collectively have the speed and precise kicking skills to set up counter-attacking opportunities.

MIDFIELD v MIDFIELD
Collingwood
Ruckman Darren Jolly is in career best form and Leigh Brown’s assistance allows him to go forward as an extra tall, which stretches the Bulldogs defensive unit. Jolly demonstrated during the home and away season that he is capable of kicking goals at crucial times playing forward.

Collingwood has a great spread of inside ball winners (Luke Ball, Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan), outside runners (Dayne Beams, Jarryd Blair, Alan Didak, Ben Johnson, Dale Thomas, Steele Sidebottom) and stoppers (Sharrod Wellingham, Brent Macaffer, Johnson), allowing them rotate constantly. Players can perform at a higher intensity for longer than the Bulldogs and not lose ascendancy despite having a different mix around the football.

Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs will have to play a more negating style around the stoppages compared to the free unaccountable style they played for the home and away season.  Losing their prime midfielder in Cooney and with Griffen under an injury cloud has created a dangerous cocktail to try to match the class of the Pies in a shoot out through this area of the ground.

FORWARDS v FORWARDS
Collingwood
The Magpies are ranked number one in the competition for inside 50 entries, and they score on 54.5 per cent of those entries. Collingwood’s forwards roll up the ground collectively when the team is not in possession of the football to assist the defence, but when the Magpies win the ball back from the opposition, all six forwards push hard back to equal the numbers at the drop of the ball or provide a marking option.

It’s no surprise that they are ranked number one from opposition turnovers. Collingwood also has the luxury of an even spread of tall and small goal kickers in Travis Cloke, Chris Dawes, Brown, Jolly, Didak, Leon Davis, Sidebottom, Beams, Blair, Thomas and Swan.

Western Bulldogs
The Dogs are ranked three in terms on inside 50 entries, and the score on 48.7 per cent of them, which illustrates their different style to Collingwood. They don’t mind sending forwards up the ground and at times behind the football to assist their defence, which means they can be outnumbered in their forward line at the drop of the ball if the forwards do not hold their marks.

The Bulldogs rely heavily on one key forward in Barry Hall and two versatile forwards in Jarrad Grant and Daniel Giansiracusa to kick them a winning score.

COACH v COACH
Mick Malthouse likes to control the game by strangling the opposition’s key players with his role players in Toovey, Prestigiacomo, Johnson, Macaffer, O’Brien, and Wellingham. This mentality allows him to relax and enables his match-winners their necessary freedom.

Rocket Eade has a different philosophy. He likes to create a confusing and chaotic style in an attempt to unsettle the opposition. This is done by watching for Malthouse’s match-ups then manipulating his own players to maximise their own strengths and highlight his opposition’s match- up deficiencies. This game will be a tactical mind field. 

UNDER THE RADAR
Dayne Beams: With Collingwood’s abundance of classy midfielders and small forwards, Beams can often be left to his own devices forward of the centre. He’s had 20 or more possessions in 14 of his 21 games this year and has averaged more than two-and-a half shots at goal per game.

Robert Murphy: The Bulldogs have relied heavily on setting up attacking thrusts from defence, and that’s where Gilbee, Hargrave and Harbrow have been so effective. Rodney Eade’s decision to add Murphy to this mix earlier in the year has been a revelation. Although he is not far off recapturing the dash of his younger years, it’s his footy smarts and experience that has been instrumental in providing the Dogs with another offensive weapon from defence.

HOW THE GAME WILL BE WON
Collingwood’s spread of goalkickers will be hard to stop, and the Magpies will block up the corridor and make it hard for the Bulldogs to get their counter-attack game going.

PREDICTION
Collingwood by 24 points

Adrian Fletcher has been an assistant coach with the Brisbane Lions since 2008 after stints at Geelong and Collingwood.

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.

Join the finals conversation on Twitter: use #aflpiesdogs in your tweets.