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ctlGalleryLibrary
Swan shortens into Brownlow favouritism
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By Jennifer Witham
5:21 PM Wed 05 Aug, 2009
Dane Swan's prolific form has moved him to outright Brownlow Medal favourite
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COLLINGWOOD midfielder Dane Swan's 36-possession game against the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night has seen him become outright favourite for the Brownlow medal.
Swan, 25, was equal favourite before round 18 with Geelong superstar Gary Ablett, before his impressive outing against the Lions.
His dominant display, combined with Ablett's relatively quiet 21-disposal game against Adelaide, has seen him move to into odds of $2.75 to Ablett's $5.00.
"His last 10 weeks have basically seen him force his way to favouritism, while Ablett missed round 15 then he had a couple of quieter games. [Chris] Judd has also been quiet over the past two weeks," TAB Sportsbet's Gary Davies told afl.com.au.
"Not only is he favourite, but he's a clear-cut favourite.
"At one stage, Ablett was clear favourite at $1.95, so it's really changed."
Swan was available at $11 three weeks ago, and $101 at the start of the season when betting first opened.
The talented Magpie, who's 20 votes in 2007 placed him equal fourth in the count, isn't the only big mover ahead of round 19.
St Kilda's Brendon Goddard has shortened into equal third at $5.50, which makes him the third Saint available at under $8.
Nick Dal Santo ($6.50) and Leigh Montagna ($8) have also attracted some money as their side's winning streak has grown.
"The St Kilda players are all there because they've won 18 and will get a lot of three votes, which is why they're all up there. Lenny Hayes is a little further down too," Davies said.
"They certainly dominate the top dozen players."
Judd, the winner of the 2004 medal, has drifted out to $6.50 with his side's form dipping over the past two weeks.
The top four players – Swan, Ablett, Goddard and Dal Santo – are from three of the top four teams, with the Western Bulldogs the only one not have to a representative in heavy contention.
Davies said their recent run of injuries – combined with their evenness – had discouraged punters from getting behind them, which was reflected in Matthew Boyd's odds of $101 that left him the best-placed Bulldog.
"The Bulldogs players have played in spurts. They've had a player who's been really good for about three weeks, then they drop off a bit," he said.
"The midfielders dominate the Brownlow, and they've had a few who have been hurt.
"Daniel Giansiracusa has been injured, and Robert Murphy as well. Adam Cooney had a slow start to the season too.
"That's probably why they're down a bit, because many of their midfielders, and forward-midfield rotation players, have missed some games."
Davies expected Paul Chapman – who kicked six goals against Adelaide on the weekend to vastly improve his odds to $21 – to drift after being diagnosed with a two-week hamstring injury.
Brisbane Lions spearhead Jonathan Brown's five-goal haul against Collingwood has seen him take over from Carlton's Brendon Fevola as the Coleman Medal favourite.
Fevola's three goals against North Melbourne have seen Brown move four ahead with as many rounds to go.
Meanwhile, one Collingwood fan will be hoping their stars align come grand final week.
"There was a punter at the start of the year who had $300 on Swan to win the Brownlow and Collingwood to win the premiership at 1,400 to one," Davies said.
"With his outlay, he's going to get $420,000 if that comes off.
"You'd be pretty happy with that situation at the moment."
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