THE WEEK leading into the season opener is always, in the words of my Seven colleague Bruce McAvaney, extra "special".

It is a unique time when none of the 16 teams lost last weekend and everyone who cares about a club has a tantalising mixture of excitement and cautious optimism - or sometimes deluded expectation - which will either be enhanced or dashed once a round of matches has been decided.

It is also the time of year where all we commentators are asked to make our pre-season predictions. Given my long-standing basic footy philosophy has been to never expect or assume, looking into the future is in all honesty more a case of calculated guess work, particularly in regard to on-field results.

When looking ahead there are a few trends happening in the game off the field of which I am more certain - but let’s start with the games themselves.
 
If I’m going to venture into the tenuous world of crystal ball-gazing and tip a side to win the 2010 AFL premiership I find it impossible to go past Geelong.

The Cats have been so consistently excellent in recent years they are my flag favourites.

We know they have stood the test of time to produce an extremely high level of performance year after year for three consecutive seasons.

The good news for the rest of the competition is that the Cats are not going to be as dominant as they were when they beat Port Adelaide by 20 goals in the 2007 grand final. That margin was indicative of how far they were ahead of the field despite only narrowly beating Collingwood’s in the preliminary final a week earlier.

But they’ve stood the test of time and still meet the primary premiership criteria.

We can be certain that the eventual premiers will have about half their side in All-Australian contention, and a gigantic chunk of their list in the prime 22-28 age bracket.

They will also statistically be at or near the best in winning contested possessions and be great tacklers. It is a telling stat that if a team, in any match, can win the contested possession count and the tackle count they will win 75 per cent of the time*.

In assessing the merits of the 2010 contenders we should first have a look back. In September last season Geelong, St.Kilda and Western Bulldogs were clearly the best three sides and were a cut above the rest.

There wasn’t a lot between them then, and there isn’t a lot between them now.

But we know what Geelong is capable of and it has proven that it can back up.

The Cats will miss the exceptional captain/leadership skills of the retired Tom Harley, but will be strengthened if ruck weapon Brad Ottens can play a full year after an injury-plagued 2009.

The question for the Saints after their staggering 20-2 home-and-away record last season is, “can they be just as good again - and then better?”

And for the Dogs, Barry Hall’s inclusion is quite possibility enough for them to jump beyond the 2009 grand finalists.

What I would hope for and expect is a tightening up at the top of the ladder, which is the way it’s meant to be. The equalisation mechanisms of the draft and the salary cap say we shouldn’t have a side as dominant as Geelong have been the last three years, or as St.Kilda was last year.

After the top three last year there was a clear group of four on the second rung - Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions and Carlton - with Essendon dropping into eighth spot.

Collingwood, having added Darren Jolly and Luke Ball, can generate significant improvement. And the Brisbane Lions, with the addition of a group of established players headed by Brendan Fevola, look a real chance to improve on their sixth place.

The way I see it, these five are the realistic premiership threats.

I still shake my head to think that Fevola, discarded by Carlton, and Hall, discarded by the Sydney Swans, might well elevate their new clubs to premiership threats.

Sometimes I think in this day and age of prioritising image and culture that talent and ability often become very underrated qualities. 

Adelaide should be around the top four, but I don’t fancy them as a premiership contender.

Carlton will find it tough. With Fevola gone and Chris Judd suspended for the first three weeks, the Blues will be really tested early, and although Jarrad Waite’s return will help  I’m not convinced they can hold their ground, let alone go forward.

Likewise Essendon, where the absence of Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas, Andrew Lovett and Adam McPhee leaves a giant hole, even with the return of David Hille.

Hawthorn is the interesting proposition. They are a very good chance of returning to the top eight, but I don’t see the compelling argument of some that they will be a top-four side just because they were so good in winning the 2008 flag.

The one thing I think definitely applies to the Hawks is that, as time goes on, we might appreciate even more fully just how great Lance Franklin was in their premiership year.

Even though he wasn’t too bad last year, his effort of 201 shots on goal in 2008, kicking 113-88, was absolutely outstanding.

For Hawthorn to bounce back into the top four, Buddy will need to reproduce that awesome level.

Richmond and Melbourne look like being off the pace, but the top eight is a distinct possibility for 14 clubs. That’s a healthy competition.
 
I’m not going to contemplate picking a 2010 Brownlow Medal winner, but I will say that the two most indispensible players in the competition in terms of their value to their respective teams are Nick Riewoldt and Chris Judd.

If they were unavailable for an extended period it would have massive implications.

Previously I would have put Jonathan Brown in the same category, but the arrival of Fevola at Brisbane makes the Lions a little less reliant on their skipper.

At this time of year the most predictable thing in football is its unpredictability, and that uncertainty is one of the game's great attractions.

Off the field there are a few critical issues bubbling around the footy world that will follow a more certain path and we will have a look at them in this column next week.

*Statistic courtesy of Champion Data

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL