HE'S THE Giant who must fire if Greater Western Sydney is to advance to its maiden AFL Grand Final.
Josh Kelly, Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield and Phil Davis are all important, but history tells us the Giants lose finals when Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron struggles.
Cameron was goalless against the Dogs in the 2016 preliminary final and Adelaide in the 2017 qualifying final, missed the latter year's preliminary final, then kicked 1.3 against Collingwood in last season's semi-final.
The 26-year-old tore his left hamstring in the second quarter of that defeat to the Crows and was out for the rest of the finals, including his club's semi-final triumph over West Coast.
That result over the Eagles is the sole exception to what is otherwise a rule.
Alternatively, Cameron booted 11 goals from 21 scoring shots across four finals GWS won.
As a forward whose fortunes often depend on what's happening further afield, it's not surprising his output in losses is worse than in wins.
However, the gulf in Cameron's output in the two scenarios is alarming – and is also reflected in the Giants' home and away results since the first year they qualified for the finals in 2016.
Jeremy Cameron (2016-2019)
H&A Win (47 games)
H&A Loss (22)
Finals Win (4)
Finals Loss (3)
14.2 (4th at GWS)
Cameron will face the Magpies again in Saturday's preliminary final at the MCG, knowing his 32 goals in their previous eight clashes is his best record against any club bar Gold Coast.
Collingwood won the corresponding September showdown by 10 points, 9.15 (69) to 9.5 (59), but the Giants, in particular, will be somewhat unrecognisable from that night.
They could have a whopping 10 different players for this weekend's rematch if Toby Greene is unable to beat his Match Review charge.
Greene will front the Tribunal on Tuesday night. Picture: AFL Photos
Greene will front the Tribunal on Tuesday night to fight his one-match ban for making unreasonable or unnecessary contact to the eye region of Lion Lachie Neale in Saturday night's semi-final.
The Magpies could have seven or more fresh faces from last year's encounter, too, given Jordan De Goey (hamstring) and Levi Greenwood (knee) are already confirmed outs.
Potential changes from last year's semi-final
Josh Kelly, Aidan Corr, Harry Perryman, Jeremy Finlayson, Sam Taylor, Brent Daniels, Daniel Lloyd, Shane Mumford, Heath Shaw
Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward, Brett Deledio, Rory Lobb, Zac Langdon, Lachie Keeffe, Ryan Griffen, Matt Buntine, Stephen Coniglio
John Noble, Jamie Elliott, Darcy Moore, Rupert Wills, Callum Brown, Jordan Roughead, Ben Reid
Brayden Sier, Tom Langdon, Mason Cox, Travis Varcoe, Tyson Goldsack, Jordan De Goey, Levi Greenwood
* Toby Greene could be out as well
It's difficult to predict what difference the personnel changes will make, especially because there are so many of them spread across all positions on the ground.
On top of that, individual progression and regression adds to the complexity, with Giant Jacob Hopper a big riser in AFL Player Ratings (12.2, up from 8.4) and Adam Kennedy tumbling (6.5, down from 11.4).
Hopper has taken his game to a new level this year. Picture: AFL Photos
On the Collingwood front, Jaidyn Stephenson (10, up from 8.7) and Josh Thomas (8.4, down from 11.8) are among the movers in the ratings.
Both teams are down overall on this metric, but the Pies' edge is much narrower than a year ago.
Collingwood is also more experienced than GWS if these selected sides take the field on Saturday, after the Giants led this category in last season's clash.
What this all means will be determined on Saturday evening, but a standout Jeremy Cameron display will go some way to history being made.
AFL Player Ratings