ONE round remains in the rebel VFLW home-and-away season and while the permutations are not quite as varied as they were in the closest season on record in 2023, all six matches could potentially have some bearing on the top six.
Carlton’s finals hopes may be extinguished by the time they host the Darebin Falcons on Sunday afternoon in the final game of the year. But if not, the Blues will know exactly how much they need to win by given every other game will be finished.
Williamstown will finish on top, that we know. However, the Western Bulldogs, Box Hill Hawks and North Melbourne are vying for the right to meet the Seagulls in the qualifying final, even though the Kangaroos needs a miracle due to their poor percentage.
The two that fail to finish in second spot are however guaranteed to host elimination finals in week one of the rebel VFLW Finals Series.
Essendon will need to do a lot wrong and have other results go against them to miss out on the top-six, which leaves reigning premier Port Melbourne, Collingwood and Casey Demons chasing the last available spot in the finals.
For the Borough, their powerful percentage means it is win against the Box Hill Hawks and they are in.
However, if they lose, the door then opens wide for the Magpies and Demons, who both will have completed their Round 14 matches before Port Melbourne’s match against Box Hill Hawks concludes, which could add a little more intrigue to what happens at ETU Stadium.
Let’s take a look at what could happen in the all-important Round 14.
1st, 9-2-2, 187.9%
STREAK: Won 6 (2024 R13 to R1: WWWWWWDWWLLDW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Essendon (18, DSV); def Southern Saints (30, WSTBBO); def Port Melbourne (2, ETU); def Geelong (86, DSV); def Carlton (28, DSV)
THIS WEEK: Collingwood (11:00am Saturday, Victoria Park)
IF THEY WIN: 1st and a home qualifying final
IF THEY LOSE: 1st unless they lose and Western Bulldogs win, making up the percentage deficit (roughly 174 points); otherwise 2nd
SUMMARY: After losing a thriller in their maiden finals appearance last year, these Seagulls have been simply magnificent in 20024. They have gone unbeaten since Round 4 to claim their first minor premiership and a guaranteed two cracks at winning a final for the first time in their history. It will be interesting to see what they do at selection, knowing they have nothing riding on this clash, although Collingwood’s season depends on it.
BRENDAN RHODES’ PREDICTION: 1st
2nd, 9-4, 126.7%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: WLWWWWWWLWLWL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Casey Demons (33, MWO; lost Darebin (18, GSO); def Geelong (71, AAO); def Southern Saints (10, MWO); def Collingwood (30, VP)
THIS WEEK: North Melbourne (2:00pm Saturday, Arden Street Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd unless Williamstown loses and the two results make up the percentage deficit (roughly 174 points); otherwise 1st
IF THEY LOSE: 2nd if Box Hill Hawks loses, 3rd if the Hawks win. If North Melbourne makes up the percentage deficit (roughly 74 points), that will drop the Bulldogs an extra spot to 4th
SUMMARY: Bounced back from a shock loss to Darebin in Round 12 with a superb win over the Casey Demons last week. While they can’t win the minor premiership, they will guarantee themselves two cracks at making at least a preliminary final if they can overcome the in-form Kangaroos this Saturday. It looks a simple equation – win and travel to Williamstown, lose and there’s every likely chance they’ll fall into a sudden-death showdown.
PREDICTION: 3rd
3rd, 8-5, 196.4%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: LWLWLWLLWWWWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost North Melbourne 9 (AS); def Geelong (90, BHCO); lost Essendon (10, WH); def Carlton (60, IP); lost Darebin (8, BHCO)
THIS WEEK: Port Melbourne (11:30am Sunday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd if Western Bulldogs lose, otherwise 3rd.
IF THEY LOSE: 3rd if North Melbourne loses, 4th if the Kangaroos win.
SUMMARY: Gave up their top-two spot with their defeat to North Melbourne last week and now must beat the reigning premiers away and hope the Bulldogs lose in order to get it back. At worst they’re guaranteed a home final either in Week 1 or 2, and they will know if the double chance is attainable when they run out on Sunday.
PREDICTION: 2nd
4th, 8-5, 94.3%
STREAK: Won 5 (WWWWWLWLLLLWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Box Hill Hawks (9, AS); def Port Melbourne (11, ETU); def Darebin (6, AS); def Collingwood (5, VP); def Essendon (66, AS)
THIS WEEK: Western Bulldogs (2:00pm Saturday, Arden Street Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd if they make up the percentage deficit to Western Bulldogs (74-point win) and Box Hill Hawks lose; 3rd if they win by 74+ and the Hawks win; otherwise 4th.
IF THEY LOSE: 4th
SUMMARY: Locked into a home final at least in their first visit to the post-season, the Kangaroos go in as one of the form teams. Knock off the Bulldogs for a second time this year and they’ll ride a six-game winning streak into the finals. This weekend’s match should be a beauty.
PREDICTION: 4th
5th, 6-6-1 (81.8%)
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: LLWWLWLWWLWDL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Williamstown (18, DSV); lost Carlton (24, WH); def Box Hill Hawks (10, WH); def Port Melbourne (12, ETU); lost North Melbourne (66, AS)
THIS WEEK: Geelong (2:30pm Saturday, Windy Hill)
IF THEY WIN: 5th
IF THEY LOSE: 5th if Port Melbourne and Collingwood both lose and Casey Demons don’t win by enough to make up the percentage deficit (roughly 134 points). 6th if one of those things happen, 7th if two happen, 8th if all three occur
SUMMARY: The Bombers can’t go up, but they need to take care of business against the Cats to make sure they definitely play finals. And remember, the fifth-placed team has fallen into the double chance in both of the past two seasons by winning an elimination final and watching sixth do the same. Not out of the hunt by any stretch.
PREDICTION: 5th
6th, 6-7, 114.9%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: WLLLWLWLLLWWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong (47, DU); lost North Melbourne (11, ETU); lost Williamstown (2, ETU); lost Essendon (12, ETU); def Southern Saints (4, WSTBBO)
THIS WEEK: Box Hill Hawks (11:30am Sunday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 5th if Essendon loses, unless Collingwood wins by roughly 79 points more than they do, otherwise 6th. Drop those finishing spots by one if Essendon wins.
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Collingwood and Casey Demons both lose and Carlton wins but doesn’t make up the percentage deficit (roughly 112 points). 7th if one of those happens, 8th if two happen, 9th if all three occur.
SUMMARY: It’s all in their hands. The Bombers are unlikely to lose, so climbing to fifth may be out of the equation which means the premiership defence will have to be carried out the hard way. Their advantage is they will know exactly what they need to by three quarter-time against the Box Hill Hawks. If the Magpies and Demons have both lost, their result won’t matter, but if one of them has got up, it will be win or miss the finals.
PREDICTION: 7th
7th, 6-7 (93.3%)
STREAK: Won 2 (2024: WWLLLWWLWWLLL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Darebin (9, GSO); def Casey Demons (15, CF); lost Southern Saints (3, AIA); lost North Melbourne (5, VP); lost Western Bulldogs (30, VP)
THIS WEEK: Williamstown (11:00am Saturday, Victoria Park)
IF THEY WIN: 5th if Essendon and Port Melbourne both lose, or if Port wins by roughly 79 points less than the Magpies do. 6th if one of those opponents win, 7th if they both win.
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Port Melbourne loses by enough to drop its percentage below Collingwood’s (roughly 70 points more) and Casey Demons lose. 7th if Casey Demons lose and Carlton wins but fails to make up the percentage deficit (roughly 13 points) or Carlton loses. 8th if one of those happen, 9th if neither occurs.
SUMMARY: All they can do is win, which is no easy feat given they host the minor premiers, and then sit back and wait to see what happens on Sunday. Realistically, they’re not going to catch the Borough’s percentage, so if they can roll the Seagulls, they’ll be breaking out the brown and gold streamers on Sunday.
PREDICTION: 9th
8th, 5-7-1 (62.0%)
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: LLWLWLDWLWWLL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Western Bulldogs (33, MWO); lost Collingwood (15, CF); def Carlton (10, IP); lost Darebin (21, GSO); def Geelong (13, CF)
THIS WEEK: Southern Saints (11:05am Sunday, Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN: 5th if Essendon, Port Melbourne and Collingwood all lose and they make up enough percentage to catch the Bombers (roughly 134 points). 6th if two of those happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none occur.
IF THEY LOSE: 8th if Carlton loses, 9th if the Blues win.
SUMMARY: The Demons slipped out of the top six last week but remain in the box seat to get back in and play finals. That’s because both Port Melbourne and Collingwood play top three teams and the Demons play one from the bottom two. They’ll know if it’s a race in two or three by the time they play, but it is completely out of their hands.
PREDICTION: 6th
9th, 5-8 (90.2%)
STREAK: Won 2 (WWLLLLWLWLLLW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Southern Saints (75, IP); def Essendon (24, WH); lost Casey Demons (10, IP); lost Box Hill Hawks (60, IP); lost Williamstown (28, DSV)
THIS WEEK: Darebin (2:00pm Sunday, IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Port Melbourne, Collingwood and Casey Demons all lose AND they make up the percentage deficits to the Borough (roughly 112 points) and Magpies (roughly 13 points). 7th if two of those happen, 8th if one happens, 9th if none occur.
IF THEY LOSE: 9th if Darebin doesn’t make up the percentage deficit (roughly 62 points), 10th if the Falcons do.
SUMMARY: The Blues have reignited the slimmest of slim hopes of sneaking into the finals by bringing a host of AFLW players into the team over the past fortnight. They hurt their finals chances with poor kicking for goal last week when finishing with 10.17 against the Southern Saints. Do they go strong again, or do they give their VFLW-listed players one last run?
PREDICTION: 8th
10th, 4-9 (66.6%)
STREAK: Lost 1 (LWLWWWLLLLLLL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Collingwood (9, GSO); def Western Bulldogs (18, GSO); lost North Melbourne (6, AAO); def Casey Demons (21, GSO); def Box Hill Hawks (8, BHCO).
THIS WEEK: Carlton (2:00pm Sunday, IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 9th if they make up the percentage deficit (roughly 62 points), 10th if they don’t.
IF THEY LOSE: 10th unless Southern Saints win and make up the percentage deficit (roughly 52 points), 11th if they do.
SUMMARY: The Falcons should be proud of their resurrection, with four wins in their past six matches. Can they repeat the dose against Carlton, whom they broke their drought against last month? That might depend on what team the Blues pick.
PREDICTION: 10th
11th, 3-10 (57.4%)
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: LLWLLLLLLLLWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Carlton (75, IP); lost Williamstown (30, WSTBBO); def Collingwood (3, AIA); lost Western Bulldogs (10, MWO); lost Port Melbourne (4, WSTBOO)
THIS WEEK: Casey Demons (11:05am, Sunday, Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN: 10th if Darebin loses and they make up the percentage deficit (roughly 52 points), 11th if they don’t.
IF THEY LOSE: 11th if Geelong loses, 12th if the Cats win.
SUMMARY: The Saints have been cruelled by their inability to win close matches, borne out of a lack of scoring power. This game is eminently winnable, though, and they should relish the chance to play finals spoilers.
PREDICTION: 11th
12th (3-10, 34.6%)
STREAK: Lost 7 (2024: LLLLLLLWLWWLL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Port Melbourne (47, DU); Box Hill Hawks (90, BHCO); Western Bulldogs (71, AAO); Williamstown (86, DSV); lost Casey Demons (13, CF)
THIS WEEK: Essendon (2:30pm Saturday, Windy Hill)
IF THEY WIN: 11th if Southern Saints lose, 12th if they win.
IF THEY LOSE: 12th
SUMMARY: It has been a horror season for the Cats, and it is hard to see them beating Essendon on the road, which they need to do to have any chance of avoiding their first wooden spoon.
PREDICTION: 12th