BRISBANE is the new comeback king of the AFL, equalling a record that has stood for more than a century.
The Lions' remarkable 60-point turnaround against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday was the eighth consecutive match they've won after trailing at half-time.
The last team to accomplish that in VFL/AFL history was Carlton way back in 1909-1910.
MATCH | HALF-TIME DEFICIT | BIGGEST DEFICIT OF MATCH |
---|---|---|
R16, 2024 v Melbourne | 23 | 24 |
R19, 2024 v Sydney | 7 | 16 |
SF, 2024 v Greater Western Sydney | 21 | 44 |
PF, 2024 v Geelong | 19 | 25 |
R1, 2025 v Sydney | 13 | 23 |
R2, 2025 v West Coast | 24 | 31 |
R3, 2025 v Geelong | 26 | 32 |
R5, 2025 v Western Bulldogs | 33 | 39 |
Like so many times in the not-so-distant past, it wasn't just the fact that Brisbane overturned a deficit on Saturday that was remarkable. It was the way it did it.
Trailing by 33 points at the half and 39 early in the third quarter, Chris Fagan's side slammed on 13 of the final 16 goals to ease home and make it a 5-0 start to 2025.
They have now taken the mantle from Thursday night's opponent, Collingwood, as the team rivals fear most when leading.
In 2022 and 2023, the Magpies played the role of Big Bad Wolf, winning 12 consecutive matches when falling behind at three-quarter time.
No lead was safe.
Ever since, after Fagan told his team during last year's mid-season bye to "dance on thin ice", the Lions have been the masters of the comeback.
It started in round 16 against Melbourne, capped off by a brilliant late goal from Hugh McCluggage, and gained momentum during the finals series with epic wins on the road over Greater Western Sydney and Geelong, both after trailing by big margins.
To start this season, they have trailed Sydney, West Coast, the Cats and Dogs at the major break – often quite substantially – but managed to escape victorious.
But the Lions' ability to fight their way back is not just a trend from the past nine months. Since the start of 2022, Brisbane has the best record of any side in the competition when trailing by four goals or more at any stage of the match, winning a remarkable 44 per cent of games when behind by 24 points or more.
Their 11-14 record when trailing by such a margin is well clear of the next best, the Magpies, who have an 8-1-17 record (31 per cent win record) when trailing by four goals or more.
At the other end of the scale is Adelaide, which has lost all 30 games in which it has trailed by at least four goals, while North Melbourne has won just one of the 55 games since the start of 2022 in which it has fallen behind by that margin.
Win rate when down by 24+ points - since 2022 | |||||
Club | Matches | Wins | Draws | Losses | Win % |
Brisbane | 25 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 44% |
Collingwood | 26 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 31% |
Sydney | 24 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 29% |
Greater Western Sydney | 34 | 7 | 0 | 27 | 21% |
Fremantle | 25 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 20% |
Geelong | 24 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 17% |
St Kilda | 28 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 14% |
Richmond | 43 | 5 | 0 | 38 | 12% |
Melbourne | 26 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 12% |
Port Adelaide | 27 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 11% |
Western Bulldogs | 28 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 11% |
Carlton | 23 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 9% |
Essendon | 36 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 8% |
Gold Coast | 30 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 7% |
West Coast | 59 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 3% |
Hawthorn | 33 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 3% |
North Melbourne | 55 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 2% |
Adelaide | 30 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0% |
While the Lions are the best at coming from behind, St Kilda is the best frontrunner in the competition.
The Saints have a 22-0 record when leading by at least four goals, while Fremantle (33-1), Gold Coast (27-2) and Collingwood (38-1-2) are almost unbeatable when holding a sizeable lead.
North Melbourne and West Coast, perhaps unsurprisingly, have been the worst clubs at holding on to a sizeable lead.
Win rate when up by 24+ points - since 2022 | |||||
Club | Matches | Wins | Draws | Losses | Win % |
St Kilda | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
Fremantle | 34 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 97% |
Gold Coast | 29 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 93% |
Collingwood | 41 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 93% |
Port Adelaide | 34 | 31 | 0 | 3 | 91% |
Geelong | 46 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 91% |
Sydney | 47 | 42 | 0 | 5 | 89% |
Western Bulldogs | 37 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 89% |
Brisbane | 48 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 88% |
Adelaide | 29 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 86% |
Essendon | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 86% |
Melbourne | 40 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 85% |
Greater Western Sydney | 33 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 85% |
Carlton | 39 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 82% |
Richmond | 27 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 78% |
Hawthorn | 30 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 77% |
West Coast | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
North Melbourne | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 55% |
The Lions are leading the way in a modern trend, where the 6-6-6 rule and standing the mark interpretation have made defending a lead more difficult than ever.
The 2024 season featured 25 games in which a team won after trailing by at least 24 points, the most ever in a single season.
More than a tenth (11.57 per cent) of all games were won in this fashion, and with seven such instances already in 2025 - a rate of 15.91 per cent - the record might fall again this year.
It would come as no great surprise if another comeback is added to the list when the Lions and Magpies clash on Thursday night.