THE TSUNAMI warning has been silenced. For now.
But will Greater Western Sydney be genuinely worried by the club's recent trajectory, where it has lost three consecutive matches and seen a once-promising record slip to a disappointing 4-4? Or is it just business as usual for the Giants?
Adam Kingsley's first season at the helm of the Giants saw the side start 4-8, before ultimately qualifying for a preliminary final after winning 11 of 13 games in the back half of the year.
Kingsley's sophomore campaign – much like this season – included three straight defeats entering the month of May. But a strong second half of the year, which featured a period of seven straight wins, again steadied the ship before finals.
However, this year, there's reason to believe the Giants' form line – and its inability to attack as efficiently as Kingsley's sides have become renowned for – has been trending in a particular downward direction for much longer than usual.
According to Champion Data, the Giants are middle of the pack this season in a number of key indicators where they have excelled in years gone by. They include scores per inside 50 (ranked No.7 in the AFL), territory (No.15), transition (No.12) and scores from turnover (No.12).
But that's not a blip on the radar. Rather, they became a concerning facet of the side's form late last year. From rounds 17 to 24 last season – despite the Giants winning seven of eight matches during that stretch – the side's model began to indicate that the problems were first arising.
Victories masked the fact that the Giants ranked No.12 for scores per inside 50 throughout that period late in 2024, as well as ranking No.15 for territory, No.13 for transition and No.10 for scores from turnover. They're hardly the numbers of a side that was, and still is, widely expected to challenge for a flag.
The obvious follow-up question is how did the Giants manufacture wins when their profile looked, on paper at least, to be struggling? The answer is their lethal efficiency across that same stretch. Throughout that period, they ranked No.13 on Champion Data's Expected Score model, but No.6 for actual points scored.
They were the No.1 ranked side for accuracy late last year as well, a theme that continued during their 4-1 start to this season. Up until round five, Champion Data notes their accuracy hovered at 52 per cent. During their last three weeks, which have brought multiple defeats, their accuracy has dipped to 37 per cent.
Injury issues, particularly in the forward half, have played their part. There's no doubt the Giants have suffered from Brent Daniels and Stephen Coniglio being sidelined, and from Toby Bedford leaving the field early last Sunday. Such blows certainly wouldn't have helped the inefficiency creeping into their game.
But do those numbers, considering they linger all the way back into last season, suggest the issues aren't just a flash in the pan but something more significant that could hamper the Giants' chances of a maiden premiership later this year?
The Giants, for their part, would be hoping history repeats. Not only have they always resurrected their record in the second half of the season under Kingsley's guidance, but the tide has always turned at one particular venue as well.
In the 2023 season, they had lost three straight games before beating Geelong at GMHBA Stadium. In the 2024 season, they had lost three straight games before beating Geelong at GMHBA Stadium. This year, they have lost three straight games. Who, and where, do they play this weekend?
Against Geelong. At GMHBA Stadium.