AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at a breakneck final six rounds, the Thilthorpe v Darcy debate and more in Monday Cal-culations
FINALS SQUEEZE ON AFTER FREO THRILLER
JUSTIN Longmuir wouldn't have needed to pull out the AFL.com.au Ladder Predictor on Sunday to know how important his side's win over Hawthorn was.
The Dockers' Saturday night salute at Optus Stadium was crucial in keeping the Dockers in the top-eight hunt and heaping more pressure on rivals Hawthorn as nine teams try to squeeze into eight spots on the ladder.
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After a season of blowouts and a more lopsided ladder than recent years, we are set for a breakneck six weeks as the stakes get higher on each of the teams battling for a finals berth.
Given Geelong's last six weeks is likely to see the Cats lock in a finals berth, it now looks most likely that one of the Hawks, Giants, Fremantle and Western Bulldogs will be the unlucky ninth position, despite the possibility of that team having 14 wins.
But who can clinch the position?
The Hawks are vulnerable. They should beat Port Adelaide this week in Tasmania, Carlton the following week and Melbourne in round 23, but also face a tough run against Adelaide (at Adelaide Oval), Collingwood and Brisbane in the final round. We're giving that a 3-3 record.
Fremantle's run home is equally as challenging, which made its win over Hawthorn an eight-point game. Collingwood is up next at the MCG, before West Coast, Carlton (at Optus Stadium), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane (Optus Stadium) and the Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium). Again, 3-3.
GWS is back to some of its best and will beat Essendon this week and should topple the Swans the week after that before playing the Dogs (at Marvel), North Melbourne (Canberra), Gold Coast (People First Stadium) and St Kilda. There's at least four wins there.
And then there's the Bulldogs, who are in ninth spot and a win behind the other three teams. Luke Beveridge's side has Brisbane at the Gabba next week, before meeting the Bombers, Giants (at Marvel), Melbourne, West Coast and Fremantle (both at Marvel Stadium). There are three certain wins in there but the Dogs will likely need to land some surprise four-pointers to secure a finals place.
According to Champion Data's fixture difficulty ranking, Geelong has the easiest run home of any club in the competition, while the Western Bulldogs (fourth easiest), Adelaide (fifth), Fremantle (sixth) are in the top group. Hawthorn has the sixth hardest remaining draw.
BOMBERS' INJURY CURSE
THERE is no silver lining to the latest injury blow at Essendon.
Nic Martin's ACL knee injury is a gut punch to a club that couldn't take any more injury setbacks and now has the Bombers heading into 2026 already compromised.
The versatile Bomber is a top-three player at the club, along with Zach Merrett and Sam Durham, and the mood after Saturday night's defeat emphasised that the Bombers simply could not take another injury blow.
He is now their fourth ACL victim this season and, adding Sam Draper's snapped Achilles, their fifth player out long-term with a leg impact injury. Regardless of Draper's stay or go decision, the Bombers are now going to be paying the price for the injuries well into 2026, Scott's fourth season in charge.
The soft-tissue plague at the Bombers is one thing – and it is being heavily scrutinised internally. But the spate of ACLs is another concern that must also be closely investigated in the aftermath of the shock of the Martin injury, particularly given to that point he had only missed one game in his career (due to COVID in round two, 2022).
Sapped of energy and spirit, it is hard to see Essendon winning another game this year and only Richmond and West Coast have worse percentages in the competition.
While injuries have provided opportunities to younger players who have shown promising signs, the tough reality for the Bombers is that these injuries are now not just impacting one season, but two.
Putting contract decisions aside, Martin, Draper, Nick Bryan, Thomas Edwards and Lewis Hayes will have interrupted pre-seasons, there is doubt on Nik Cox's future as he battles concussion and Will Setterfield's foot injury will leave him sidelined for months.
RILEY'S REMINDER
IT WAS a metaphorical flex among his many literal ones on Saturday.
But as the focus (fairly) centres on Sam Darcy's status as the leading young key forward in the game, Riley Thilthorpe's six-goal destruction of the Western Bulldogs was yet another reminder of his place in the competition's best, too.
Thilthorpe was unstoppable against the Dogs on Saturday, raking in nine marks and finishing with an AFL Player Rating score of 26.9 – the best of his career.
He is up to 39 goals for the season and sits firmly as the Crows' most important player as they look all but set to return to the finals for the first time since 2017.
Darcy kicked two goals, including an incredible one late in the game after a basketball-like bounce to himself, but Thilthorpe's performance was a not-so-subtle suggestion that he can also comfortably handle the tag of the best young key forward in the game.
There is only one year between the two No.2 picks – Thilthorpe was taken in 2020 and Darcy the following season – and they differ in style. But the numbers are showing Thilthorpe is on an incredible trajectory.
Champion Data highlights that for 23-year-old key forwards, the highest relative rating (the player's impact rated against the expectation of his age and position) has Thilthorpe at +56 per cent this year.
That ranks him fourth ever since relative ratings begun for that age bracket and position, behind Lance Franklin in 2010 (+77 per cent), Charlie Dixon in 2013 (+61 per cent) and Jack Riewoldt in 2011 (+59 per cent).
CARLTON CAN'T KICK THE BLUES
SOMETIMES you kick. Sometimes you get kicked. Sometimes you can't kick.
The overwhelming class gap between Brisbane and Carlton on Thursday night made clear the Blues' ball issues. Whilst decisions on Michael Voss and those around him will be made at season's end, the work has to be already started on building the skill level for the Blues over next summer.
Carlton rank last for kicking efficiency, disposal efficiency, overall kick rating and kick rating for kicks going into the forward 50. They are second worst in kick rating for shots at goal.
Their much-dissected ball movement has not been able to be resurrected and the Blues continue to bomb the ball inside 50 and hope for a crumb or then push to the pocket, force a stoppage and build their scoring ammunition from there. They are third worst in the AFL for taking the ball from half back to a score and second worst in the AFL for scores per inside 50.
While other parts of their game hold up – the defence, contest, pressure and clearances – showing their effort, the skills when they are most needed are lacking.
HAWKS' WAVERLEY DECISION LOOMS
TO MOVE or not to move? That is the question that has been debated for some time at Hawthorn.
Hawthorn's new state-of-the-art Dingley headquarters are nearing completion, with the Hawks' estimates that the new training and administration base will be ready to move into between August and October.
Hawthorn hasn't concerned itself with the decision on when they will move until they have the green light to go, but the question about what the Hawks do if the new facility is available just as they enter a finals series is worth considering if they can maintain their top-eight position.
The benefits of making a move on the eve of a finals tilt are clear: the freshness of a new, whizz-bang facility giving the mental change of mind of an added advantage with a cup in sight.
Equally, there is the view that changing for the hope of an effect on the team's fortunes could disrupt their continuity at a time when most clubs stress the importance of treating finals as just another week.
Our sense is that if Dingley is open and ready for the Hawks to arrive by September, a shift may still be unlikely given the conservative football world. But Hawthorn has done things differently under Sam Mitchell and the bonus of a new facility in September would be appealing. Should they get there.