GOALKICKING accuracy from 40m out and beyond has dropped in the past 10 years, while the modern player is less likely to kick a goal from directly in front than they were a decade ago.
However, current players are better at finding the goals from tight angles, with the rate and accuracy of set shots from the pockets increasing in recent years.
These are just some of the findings of an in-depth AFL.com.au analysis of goalkicking trends, which examined more than 64,000 shots on goal to see if the current player is better or worse at finding the big sticks.
Using numbers from Champion Data, which breaks down shots on goal based on distance and angle, it can be revealed that:
- Set shot accuracy from all distances is generally worse than it was a decade ago, although accuracy was at its lowest between 2018 and 2021
- The rate of set shots from both pockets has more than doubled in the past decade, and the accuracy rate of these shots has increased by 32 per cent
- Current players are less likely to kick a set shot goal from directly in front than they were 10 years ago
- Modern players are 31 per cent less likely to take a shot from outside 50m than they were 20 years ago
- Modern players are taking more shots from 15-40m out than they did at the turn of the century
The debate
AFL.com.au sought to dive deeper into the well-worn theory that the modern player is less accurate in front of goal than previous generations.
While a basic analysis of goals and behinds indicates accuracy was higher at the turn of the century compared to now, not all shots on goal are equal. A set shot from the top of the goal square – obviously – has a much lower degree of difficulty than one on the run from 50m out.
Shots on goal that go out of bounds or fall short have also only been tracked accurately in recent times, making it difficult to compare eras, while a simple goals to behinds ratio is also skewed by rushed behinds.
We sought to dive deeper and look at where shots on goal are being taken and in what context to provide a clearer answer.
The major restriction on this approach is the availability of data. Champion Data has logged the distance of every shot on goal since 1999, but the angle and accuracy of every set shot only since 2013. While this gives us tens and thousands of shots to analyse, it means we can only reveal recent trends, not ones from previous generations.
To ensure we compared similar data, we restricted our analysis to set shots only, making for an easier like-for-like comparison. Looking at total shots would not have factored in defensive pressure when a player is taking a shot.
Accuracy trends
The 2018 season was the year the AFL competition, as a collective, started to get the yips in front of goal.
Set shot goalkicking accuracy dropped across the board in that 2018 season compared to the years before, with the lows continuing through 2019 and the COVID-interrupted campaigns of 2020 and 2021.
There has since been a correction and accuracy rates are generally back near where they were in 2013, but they remain below the levels of a decade ago, particularly from further out from goal.
| SET SHOT ACCURACY BY YEAR | |
| Year | AFL Average |
| 2024 | 54.1% |
| 2023 | 53.0% |
| 2022 | 53.4% |
| 2021 | 52.4% |
| 2020 | 52.0% |
| 2019 | 51.7% |
| 2018 | 52.0% |
| 2017 | 52.9% |
| 2016 | 53.8% |
| 2015 | 53.5% |
| 2014 | 53.7% |
| 2013 | 54.6% |
For shots from 50m and beyond, the accuracy rate has been below 30 per cent in each of the past six completed seasons, having sat above 30 per cent every year between 2013 and 2018, with a high of 34.8 per cent in 2013.
Set shot accuracy from 40-50m out has also generally been lower in recent years, although the 2024 accuracy rate from this distance was the highest it has been since 2015.
| SET SHOT ACCURACY BY DISTANCE | |||||
| Season | 0-15m | 15-30m | 30-40m | 40-50m | 50m+ |
| 2024 | 86.8% | 75.8% | 57.5% | 46.9% | 29.8% |
| 2023 | 90.8% | 76.6% | 57.6% | 45.2% | 26.6% |
| 2022 | 88.0% | 74.5% | 59.2% | 45.0% | 29.4% |
| 2021 | 92.4% | 75.1% | 56.3% | 43.7% | 27.7% |
| 2020 | 91.8% | 71.0% | 56.4% | 43.8% | 26.8% |
| 2019 | 89.3% | 72.7% | 54.3% | 43.4% | 27.6% |
| 2018 | 91.1% | 70.1% | 57.9% | 43.5% | 30.9% |
| 2017 | 92.8% | 73.5% | 56.0% | 45.2% | 33.5% |
| 2016 | 91.2% | 75.0% | 57.3% | 45.9% | 31.5% |
| 2015 | 88.3% | 71.1% | 56.0% | 47.3% | 33.5% |
| 2014 | 89.7% | 76.9% | 60.8% | 47.1% | 31.1% |
| 2013 | 91.0% | 75.1% | 61.3% | 46.6% | 34.8% |
Angle trends
Since the start of the 2013 season, Champion Data has recorded the angle of all set shots on goal, with the 50m arc split into seven sections: two pockets, two sections at 45-degree angles, two sections just off centre and one directly in front.
While most of the data is steady over that time, there's been a clear increase in the volume and accuracy of shots being taken from the pockets, while shots from directly in front have gone the other way.
| PERCENTAGE OF SET SHOTS BY ANGLE | ||||
| Season | 45-degree angle | Off centre | Directly in front | |
| 2024 | 6.69% | 29.60% | 53.68% | 10.03% |
| 2023 | 6.21% | 31.08% | 51.88% | 10.83% |
| 2022 | 7.02% | 30.76% | 52.85% | 9.37% |
| 2021 | 7.41% | 30.79% | 52.30% | 9.50% |
| 2020 | 8.29% | 30.90% | 49.76% | 11.05% |
| 2019 | 7.80% | 30.97% | 51.45% | 9.78% |
| 2018 | 6.68% | 28.95% | 52.79% | 11.59% |
| 2017 | 5.89% | 29.95% | 52.88% | 11.28% |
| 2016 | 4.86% | 28.71% | 54.50% | 11.93% |
| 2015 | 4.22% | 34.77% | 49.81% | 11.20% |
| 2014 | 3.85% | 34.43% | 51.55% | 10.17% |
| 2013 | 3.84% | 33.15% | 51.95% | 11.06% |
The percentage of total set shots taken from the pockets has jumped from 3.84 per cent in 2013 to more than 7 per cent in recent seasons, with a high of 8.29 per cent in the shortened 2020 campaign.
The accuracy of shots from the pockets has also jumped beyond 36 per cent in five of the past six seasons having been as low as 29.55 per cent in 2016.
| SET SHOT ON GOAL ACCURACY BY ANGLE | ||||
| Season | 45-degree angle | Off centre | Directly in front | |
| 2024 | 39.01% | 41.46% | 59.48% | 76.92% |
| 2023 | 36.31% | 41.40% | 57.84% | 74.57% |
| 2022 | 36.52% | 44.23% | 56.27% | 79.16% |
| 2021 | 34.58% | 43.10% | 56.63% | 74.90% |
| 2020 | 37.08% | 41.45% | 56.00% | 74.69% |
| 2019 | 39.37% | 42.83% | 53.30% | 79.08% |
| 2018 | 34.14% | 41.84% | 54.00% | 79.79% |
| 2017 | 31.44% | 42.21% | 55.55% | 79.76% |
| 2016 | 29.55% | 43.48% | 57.08% | 75.08% |
| 2015 | 36.71% | 41.12% | 58.49% | 77.27% |
| 2014 | 30.94% | 41.69% | 58.95% | 77.20% |
| 2013 | 43.46% | 39.68% | 60.90% | 80.00% |
The uplift in goals from the pockets has mostly come from shots from 15-30m out, with the accuracy rate from this distance rising from 28.81 per cent in 2015 to 47.37 per cent in 2024, with a high of 51.45 per cent in 2019.
| SET SHOTS ON GOAL FROM POCKETS - ACCURACY BY DISTANCE | ||||
| Season | Pocket 0-15m | Pocket 15-30m | Pocket 30-40m | Pocket 40-50m |
| 2024 | 61.29% | 47.37% | 38.57% | 24.49% |
| 2023 | 78.57% | 44.12% | 30.89% | 28.87% |
| 2022 | 47.62% | 48.36% | 31.34% | 24.05% |
| 2021 | 52.94% | 39.60% | 35.80% | 23.66% |
| 2020 | 66.67% | 37.36% | 36.84% | 31.15% |
| 2019 | 58.82% | 51.45% | 32.35% | 25.00% |
| 2018 | 60.00% | 35.40% | 34.85% | 19.67% |
| 2017 | 62.50% | 34.04% | 27.12% | 28.17% |
| 2016 | 65.22% | 35.00% | 23.08% | 16.98% |
| 2015 | 68.42% | 28.81% | 39.33% | 27.50% |
| 2014 | 50.00% | 35.09% | 36.67% | 17.86% |
| 2013 | 57.14% | 30.51% | 35.59% | 28.79% |
With modern team defence focused so heavily on protecting the corridor, it has forced teams to take more shots from tighter angles, and the modern player is getting better at executing these shots.
But they are also getting worse at taking shots from directly in front.
The percentage of set shots taken from in front dropped to a low of 9.37 per cent in 2022 from a high of 11.93 per cent in 2016, while the accuracy rate of these shots has also dropped significantly and has gotten worse the further the distance.
In three of the past four completed seasons, less than a third of shots from 50m+ out directly in front have resulted in goals, compared to a high of 42.62 per cent in 2017.
There has also been a downturn in goalkicking success from 30-40m out and 40-50m out in the past five years compared to the previous five.
| SET SHOT ON GOAL FROM IN FRONT - ACCURACY BY DISTANCE | |||||
| Season | In front 0-15m | In front 15-30m | In front 30-40m | In front 40-50m | In front 50m+ |
| 2024 | 99.03% | 92.20% | 73.87% | 61.44% | 31.58% |
| 2023 | 99.19% | 89.51% | 71.79% | 49.24% | 40.38% |
| 2022 | 100.00% | 90.43% | 76.09% | 63.39% | 32.43% |
| 2021 | 100.00% | 90.82% | 72.48% | 50.00% | 32.50% |
| 2020 | 100.00% | 88.66% | 58.93% | 58.90% | 39.29% |
| 2019 | 100.00% | 90.77% | 75.29% | 62.62% | 35.71% |
| 2018 | 100.00% | 91.91% | 80.53% | 60.33% | 36.36% |
| 2017 | 100.00% | 88.51% | 79.41% | 64.75% | 42.62% |
| 2016 | 100.00% | 90.13% | 69.29% | 57.14% | 39.34% |
| 2015 | 98.64% | 91.60% | 75.00% | 59.85% | 32.69% |
| 2014 | 99.14% | 91.35% | 78.41% | 61.34% | 33.33% |
| 2013 | 99.33% | 91.51% | 81.90% | 62.42% | 39.02% |
Distance trends
While Champion Data does not have comprehensive data on the exact angle and type of shot from before 2013, they have tracked the distance of all shots since 1999, which reveals a clear trend of players taking more shots closer to goal and fewer from 40m out and beyond.
Between 1999 and 2010, the percentage of total shots taken from 40-50m out was between 38.3 and 30.6 per cent but has sat between 28.8 per cent and 27.0 per cent in the past nine completed seasons.
The pattern is reversed for shots closer to goal; in the past seven full seasons, the percentage of shots taken 15-30m out has sat between 24.4 and 26.4 per cent having been below 20 per cent in seven of the first 10 seasons of the century.
What does it all mean?
The results of this analysis reveal as much about modern game trends as it does about the ability of players to kick accurately.
With the modern focus on defending the corridor, it has naturally forced teams to look for marking targets off centre, which has led to an increase in shots from the pockets. If there is no obvious marking target inside 50, modern teams also tend to kick towards the pockets with a view that, if a mark is not taken, they can force a stoppage from where they can attack the goal from clearance.
Former Sydney coach John Longmire recently spoke about 'the launch pad', which is the ideal forward-50 entry point being from between 45 and 70m out from goal. A focus on this means players are being told to kick from the launch pad and find a marking target closer to goal (ideally, 'the hot spot' at the top of the square) rather than kicks that require their forwards to mark and shoot from 40m out and beyond.
The study also shows that practice makes perfect. The modern player is taking more shots from acute angles and becoming better at them, while they are taking less shots from further out and in front, and becoming less accurate when doing so.
So are the current sharpshooters like Jeremy Cameron and Jesse Hogan better or worse at goalkicking than the likes of Lance Franklin and Josh Kennedy a decade ago, or Matthew Lloyd and Brendan Fevola from earlier this century? And what about the greats of the 20th century like Jason Dunstall, Tony Lockett, Gary Ablett, Peter Hudson, John Coleman and Gordon Coventry?
With the restriction on how much detailed data we can look at in a competition that is 128 years old, getting a scientific answer to this question is close to impossible.
That debate will have to continue.