AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at what's going wrong at Essendon, previews the impending clash between Chris Fagan and Ross Lyon and more in Cal-culations

BOMBERS HIT TURBULENCE ALREADY

ESSENDON knew this season would be bumpy. But two thrashings to start the year makes bumpy look an understatement.

How committed the Bombers are to staying the course knowing the challenges ahead is already being tested a fortnight into the season and Sunday's performance against Port Adelaide would have been more deflating than their round one loss to Hawthorn, which finished in the top four last year.

In contrast, Port was beaten by North Melbourne last week and is in a list regeneration itself. 

The Bombers have been in a misery loop for close to two decades and although they haven't publicly committed to a rebuild in recent years, they haven't needed to: their actions say they absolutely have. And they are in the depths of it right now. 

As the equal second youngest list in the competition Essendon's demographic tells a story. As does the trading and contracting decisions of recent off-seasons where Brad Scott has pruned his list while retaining draft choices. 

The differences between Port and Essendon on Sunday were stark in many ways – the way either defended, the skill level, the running power – as was the star power. In times of trouble after last week, Port turned to its matchwinners – Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis – to deliver Josh Carr his first win as coach. 

Essendon has only one player in that grade – ex-skipper Zach Merrett – and the gap between he and the next tier of Bombers does not seem to have closed over summer. Nate Caddy's four-goal effort was a positive and he is exciting but needs help from more experienced Bombers around him in that forward half.

The Bombers had five players playing on Sunday who were recruited across the six years of drafting, trading and free agency between 2017-22, lost years that see their list profile depending on youth in primary positions too much. The only way to find out about players is to blood them but Essendon has few other options.  

Fremantle, a real flag contender this year, had 13 players from that window play against Melbourne on Saturday night. The Dees, who were on their way in their flag build at the start of 2017, won a premiership and are now building again, had 11. West Coast, last year's wooden spooner, had four on Sunday night. 

Essendon, like the Eagles, are in the most uncomfortable part of the plan – where the past has been shed but the future is yet to arrive.

WHY KING SHOULD STAY A SUN

HE IS football's 'Metronome' with the biggest decision of his career ahead. 
 
From a football point of view, the easiest decision of the year would be Ben King choosing to stay at Gold Coast.

King is the early Coleman Medal leader after a seven-goal haul for the Suns in their 68-point win over Richmond on Saturday.

The Suns have built a game plan that makes things simple for King and he delivers: from 18 kicks this season he has booted 16 goals and one behind and as the focal point of Gold Coast's forward half, there's no sign of that slowing down.

His only blemish came from a shot outside 50 metres, with King fast becoming the AFL's version of bowling legend Glenn McGrath in his metronome ability to relentlessly guide the ball to where he wants it with precision accuracy.

With the way the game is being played, the Suns' propensity for big scores and blowouts and the new rules making it harder for poorer teams to defend, King's chances of breaking the 100-goal barrier this year will stay live if he maintains his early form. He currently leads the AFL for scoreboard impact with 34.3 points a game.

King is a restricted free agent this season and is going to take time to make his decision as Victorian clubs circle him as one of the remaining key free agents in the pool.

As AFL.com.au has revealed, Hawthorn and Collingwood are the leading Victorian suitors, with King having considered whether to sign a two-year deal, like his previous three contract extensions, to get through to the end of 2028 when he would be an unrestricted free agent.

It wasn't always like this at the Suns, as he knows full well.

The No.6 draft pick lost the first 15 games he played at the club and won 12 of his first 53 games in the AFL. King has done the hard yards at Gold Coast and is now seeing the fruits in one of the real premiership contenders.

Clearly all factors come into an out of contract player's mind when they are in demand, and through his career King has regularly been viewed as a chance to come back to Victoria. It took only hours for rival clubs to mutter that after he was drafted to the struggling club eight years ago.

He will get paid no matter where he plays in 2027 and beyond – likely to be upwards of $1.4 million a season – and he has already been in the million-dollar club for a number of years already.

But, from a purely football sense, there are no clubs in Victoria that offer the same surety on being a long-term flag contender as Gold Coast. Not Hawthorn, not Collingwood, not Geelong and not any other club that puts its hand up for him with a huge bounty of cash.

Risk can also come in changing systems and teammates from a Suns group that has been set up for him to do his job. Champion Data shows Gold Coast has scored 43.4 per cent of the time they have kicked to King inside 50 so far this season – which ranks No.1 in the AFL.

There are other factors King, his partner and family will consider on his contract call, like being closer to their Melbourne families after eight years in Queensland. Only he and they will be able to answer how strong that pull is.

But if King wants to be sure about challenging for success on a year-to-year basis for at least the next five years, Gold Coast has no peer.

HAS FREO'S WILDCARD LANDED?

SHAI Bolton had an underwhelming first season at Fremantle.

After the Dockers paid up for him at the end of 2024, Bolton showed flashes of his star quality without delivering to his full ability.

Despite playing all bar one game, the two-time premiership Tiger didn't register a Brownlow Medal vote and didn't finish in the top-10 of the Dockers' best and fairest.

He has started 2026 in much better fashion. After two goals and 16 disposals against Geelong last week, the 27-year-old played his best game in Dockers colours on Saturday night against Melbourne with 32 disposals, nine clearances, 10 inside-50s, nine score involvements and two goals.

Champion Data rated it the best game of his Dockers career (with a score of 26.9) and the fifth-highest rated game of his 160-game career. If Fremantle is to take the leap and continue to play the type of break-neck high voltage football to compete with the best, they need Bolton at his best.

And just a note on who was ranked the second best player in the game: Murphy Reid. Last year's Telstra Rising Star winner has already taken things up another notch to start this season and his game was given a 22.8 player ratings score – his previous best was 14.2 against the Western Bulldogs in their round 24 battle last year.

Reid is a rising superstar of the competition with the game sense of only the very best. An extremely special talent.

RIVALRY TURNS ON FIELD

ST KILDA and Brisbane was the rivalry of the off-season. And Ross Lyon made it clear he had caught a glimpse of Lions coach Chris Fagan on Saturday scouting the Saints at Engie Stadium.

"Chris Fagan was here watching in person so he's not breathing out, is he? He's got two cups and he's rolling up eating a Subway," Lyon said after the Saints' win over Greater Western Sydney.

"He's strapped it on and it's an insight into his mindset and drive and the club we're coming up against."

It was Fagan who lit the match of the February tit-for-tat, telling AFL.com.au that St Kilda's high-priced shopping last year was a "danger" to the game.

Saints chief executive Carl Dilena fired back, telling AFL.com.au that the bigger threat lied in unequal access to talent.

Brisbane will have more talent on the field on Saturday than St Kilda when they meet at Marvel Stadium, and will regain Zac Bailey and Darcy Gardiner from suspension and likely Hugh McCluggage from injury.

St Kilda will be the most relieved team in the competition today after holding on against the fast-finishing Giants. Had the game gone another minute, the Giants might have pinched it having booted five of the last six goals of the game to get within four points.

The Saints' bold recruiting drive last year depended on two things – the new faces delivering as soon as they arrived but also the club's group of young talent lifting quickly.

Darcy Wilson, a first-round pick in 2023, was excellent against the Giants in one of the best games of his career and 'Flying Viking' Alix Tauru's bravery in the air means that although he only had a handful of disposals, his two goals were valuable and his impact was high. Hugo Garcia is another youngster who performed well in St Kilda's midfield.

Brisbane has beaten St Kilda in their past seven clashes and the last three have been by an average of 50 points. The Saints must have closed that gap if they are to be a finals contender.

NO BUTTS ABOUT IT

THERE was symmetry in Friday night's performances from Buku Khamis and Jordon Butts.

Both were figures in last year's trade period; Khamis wanted to depart the kennel to join Carlton and Buttsemerged as a target for the Bulldogs after their bid for Saints gun Callum Wilkie fell through.

But after the Blues couldn't get a deal across the line to land Khamis after haggling on pick swaps, he returned to the Western Bulldogs where he was contracted for this year.

So far, so good. Perhaps the new age of player movement is seen less in players moving clubs than those who don't get where they want, return without a fuss and get on with it.

Khamis has been switched from the forward line to defence and was excellent in the Dogs' last gasp win at Adelaide Oval with 20 disposals and 10 intercept possessions.

He has averaged a career-best 6.3 spoils and 6.7 intercept possessions a game, and in match ups of 30 minutes of more against Cam Rayner, Charlie Cameron, Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer and Luke Pedlar so far this season, he has only conceded two goals.

The only player on the ground with more intercept possessions than Khamis was Butts, who shut down Dogs spearhead Sam Darcy whilst having one of the best games of his career with 19 disposals, 11 intercept touches and a goal – for the first time in his 87 AFL games.

Butts' eight intercept marks equalled Mark Keane last year for the most intercept marks by a Crow over the past 10 years.

The Dogs weren't prepared to let Khamis walk for a later pick last year – aware it had to be at least of the same value they would receive as free agency compensation this year – while the Crows never considered the Dogs' approaches for Butts, which has proved to be the right call given long-term injuries to talls Keane and Dan Curtin over summer.

Khamis and Butts will be unrestricted free agents this year and we know the market will be heavy for key defenders.

DEVILS' LOCAL EDGE

TASMANIA will have to wait for its Macquarie Point stadium longer than it would have liked – the latest estimate being completion in 2031.

But in the meantime the Devils will have something that Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney did not in their infancy years and that's a state backing them from the start.

Saturday's VFL debut at North Hobart Oval in front of a sold-out crowd showed that the interest in the Devils locally will not have to be manufactured nor waited on. It is already there. 

Players considering moves there will know their eventual home is years away, but in the interim they will at least be playing in front of a frenzied local crowd that has been waiting for their own team for decades. A very different story to the previous inception teams.