BRISBANE was demolished by Geelong last week and has conceded 100-plus points in all four losses this season, but it's not as far off as you may think.
Perched outside the safety of a top-six ladder position with a 6-4 record after 10 rounds, coach Chris Fagan said he wouldn't be hitting the panic button following the hefty loss.
He gave valid reasons for the defeat – the Cats were awesome, the Lions were at the end of three successive six-day breaks and had their battles with player availability – and he's seen this movie before.
In 2024 they were famously four wins from 11 matches and in 14th place before storming to a premiership, while last year surprise losses to Melbourne, Gold Coast and Sydney had outsiders questioning their hunger.
Although Fagan can't, and won't be, assuming the Lions can flick a switch to consistently produce their best footy, they have still won six of their past eight games. Two of their four losses have been by less than a kick.
However, although these might not be red flags, the Lions have a few issues akin to a leaky tap: not a major problem on the surface, but little by little it adds up.
Aside from some individuals that are playing well below their best – we’ll get back to them – the biggest concern would be with team defence, particularly transition once they turn the ball over.
Overall, Brisbane was ranked sixth for points against last year and is currently ninth. Not a huge drop-off.
The Lions have never been in the elite category here, so it’s not a killer, but 2026 is proving particularly troublesome.
They're ranked in the bottom four in a host of defensive transition categories. Defensive 50 to score rate against they've dropped from eighth to 15th.
The raging red flag that does need attention is teams moving the ball from their defensive midfield (behind centre) to forward 50. They were third in the AFL last year and are now 16th.
That's clearly a marker for Brisbane's half-forwards and midfielders to lift their intensity without the ball.
On the flipside, they're scoring better than ever. There is no better team at maximising the centre bounce, with a +10.9 point differential (big tick for the Sam Draper-Darcy Fort combo), which is an improvement of more than two goals from 2025 (-2.6) when they were ranked 16th.
| Scoring by source | 2026 | Rank | 2025 | Rank |
| Points for | 103.8 | 2 | 91.0 | 6 |
| Points from kick ins | 3.1 | 16 | 3.6 | 13 |
| Points from turnovers | 57.8 | 4 | 52.1 | 4 |
| Points from clearances | 42.9 | 3 | 35.3 | 7 |
| Points from centre bounces | 21.2 | 1 | 8.3 | 16 |
| Kick in score differential | -4.8 | 17 | -0.5 | 12 |
| Turnover score differential | +12.5 | 5 | +11.3 | 5 |
| Clearances score differential | +7.1 | 5 | +2.1 | 8 |
| Centre bounce score differential | +10.9 | 1 | -2.6 | 16 |
That makes the individual numbers hard to fathom. According to Champion Data's Player Ratings system, Will Ashcroft has dropped from 38th to 235th in the AFL, Josh Dunkley from 46th to 188th and Hugh McCluggage 12th to 180th.
Although Lachie Neale has surged to again be the Lions' highest-rated player, individually the midfield is down, yet collectively it is producing as well as ever (with ball in hand, at least).
It really is Brisbane's next tier of players that have lifted this year.
Charlie Cameron has returned to the absolute peak of his powers which, before last year's Grand Final, looked behind him.
Ryan Lester is somehow still improving at the age of 33. Bruce Reville has made a quantum jump on the wing. Draper has been excellent in his first season.
Hovering above any concerns over Brisbane's form is its injury list. Other teams have longer lists, but the Lions' depth has been decimated in a couple of key areas.
Eric Hipwood has not played this year as he recovers from a second ACL injury, which added to Oscar Allen's (foot) long-term absence, makes the key forward set-up challenging.
The same can be said for the other end of the ground. Jack Payne (knee) will return towards the end of the season at best, while swingman Ty Gallop (hamstring) has recently missed time. Darcy Gardiner just returned from six weeks out with a shoulder problem.
Then there’s the lockdown defender role. Brandon Starcevich’s departure to West Coast during the off-season meant Noah Answerth was the main man, but the rugged 26-year-old has been dogged by multiple concussions this season.
In came Lincoln McCarthy to play the role, and out he went just as quickly with a hamstring injury. Shaun Mannagh feasted with five goals last week as Jaspa Fletcher tried to play the unusual role.
Fletcher, who finished fifth in last year’s best and fairest, has been unable to recapture his best form following shoulder surgery in the off-season. Dunkley had the same procedure, while McCluggage (calf) missed a lot of time in the early rounds.
Jarrod Berry (shoulder) missed a chunk of the pre-season and is now dealing with a calf issue.
These are issues every club faces, but with some bodies due back imminently and some defensive tightening in transition, there’s no reason Brisbane won’t be thereabouts again.
It will need its best players to find their best form.
With Greater Western Sydney (away), Fremantle (home) and Gold Coast (away) as opponents in the next three weeks, it would be a good time for the Lions to remind the competition of their premiership credentials.