AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the Bombers' stark reality, Logan Morris joining elite company and more in Cal-culations
HOW FAR CAN THE BLUES GO?
STEVEN King would have left the MCG on Saturday evening a little nervous.
His Melbourne team wasn't great against the Western Bulldogs and across town at Marvel Stadium the Demons' next opponents had just brought down the best team in the competition.
The Demons have produced one of the best storylines of the season to return to the finals in King's first year in charge, but timing is everything. And after their loss to the Dogs on Saturday, the Demons have found themselves tasked with one of the competition's toughest tasks over the past three months – playing Carlton.
You didn't read that wrong. If you tuned out of footy in May and just returned interest for the finals, no, this is not an alternate universe. Although it might feel like one for the Blues, who have become one of the competition's most watchable and entertaining teams under Josh Fraser.
Carlton's win over ladder leader Fremantle on Saturday at Marvel Stadium might have ended up something of a dead rubber for both teams – given the Blues still finished 10th – but it added to Carlton's winning record under Fraser, which is now 11 wins, one draw and two losses in 14 games in charge. No wonder there couldn't have been less surprise when he was officially appointed for a three-year term last week.
And now the Blues take on the Demons in next week's wildcard clash and it would be a nervy week for Melbourne supporters who will not-so-fondly remember running into the navy blue momentum train in the finals series of 2023 when Carlton kicked them out of September with a semi-final triumph.
There are many success stories to the second half of the season for Carlton since they shook hands and parted ways with Michael Voss at 1-8. The midfield of Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Jagga Smith have found the right balance; Wade Derksen alongside Harry Dean has made for a more formidable backline; Brodie Kemp has been in career-best form in attack and Blake Acres is back to some of his best running football.
An under-the-radar recruit of the year contender has been Ben Ainsworth from Gold Coast.
The former No.4 pick has had a career-best season – his three goals on Saturday against the Dockers took him to 26 for the season (a career-high) and his 20 disposals took him past 400 in a season for the first time as well. Ainsworth has played every game and been excellent for the Blues, including when they weren't at the top of their game.
Wildcard Round gave Carlton hope when all was lost and has extended the possibilities of the season (save for a boring and largely predictable final round of the home and away season). But it has more than hope now – its run has built confidence and it will go into it Melbourne meeting with absolute belief it can extend it run further into an elimination final after that.
Melbourne has been one of the most destructive teams in the competition this year and will be on its favoured MCG, and King has this year made sure after each poor performance his team has bounced back, having lost two games in a row only once this season. But an unexpected force in the form of 10th place stands in its way.
BOMBERS' STARK REALITY AS AFL'S WORST
TWO PARTS of Essendon's future stood out on Sunday – that Nate Caddy is going to shoulder so many hopes and that Zach Merrett remains its best player on his way out.
That much was on show as the Bombers completed their worst ever season in a hard-fought 10-point loss to Port Adelaide, seeing them claim their first wooden spoon since 2016.
As the Bombers zero in on Sydney assistant Mark McVeigh as the favourite for their role, with AFL.com.au revealing on Sunday he was in the box seat as he prepares to fly to Melbourne on Monday for a final presentation to the Essendon board, Sunday's defeat marked the end to a disastrous year.
Caddy was the highlight against the Power and his six-goal haul took him to 46 goals for the season, which is an excellent effort as a third-year forward in the competition's worst team. He is a huge talent and the better Essendon gets the better he will be as well, with his recommitment to 2031 among the rare highlights for the Bombers this year.
But another reality was clear again in the tight loss to the completely undermanned Port outfit and that's the fact Merrett remains Essendon's best player at the age of 30 and with likely his red and black career over.
The Dons' champion No.7 still has his eyes set on Hawthorn and with a year to go on his contract the Bombers should do the deal this year rather than wait another season and only recoup a later free agency compensation pick then.
Merrett's late goal looked likely to see the Bombers clinch the win against Port before the Power kicked two late ones, with Merrett finishing with 32 disposals and eight score involvements in a starring performance.
The Bombers were without Sam Durham, who has been playing through groin soreness for several weeks, and Nic Martin, who will return next year from knee surgery, and that pair are their next two best players behind Merrett, with Caddy their most important.
But that deep task will get deeper if Merrett gets his wish to land at the Hawks, where he has plans to land, meaning the Bombers will lose their most experienced and oldest player.
Unlike last year's shock, the Bombers have had time to work through the Merrett decision since he opted against signing a contract offer earlier this year and should be open to doing the deal this time around. Merrett is now likely to win his seventh club best and fairest, which would have him join club legends Dick Reynolds and Bill Hutchison as the most for any Essendon players.
The Bombers two-win season sees them equal their 1933 wooden spoon campaign as their lowest win tally of any year, although that season there were only 18 games, making their win percentage this year the worst of their long, long history. It's a long road forward.
SWANS STILL A TASK AT HOME
SYDNEY will still take some beating at the SCG. But as the emotion of a confronting week spilled out after play on Sunday it became clear on the field for the first time how the club will remain reeling from a tumultuous week long after their campaign ends.
Yes, it was North Melbourne and not Brisbane, but Sunday's effort from the Swans after a dramatic week where five of their players were banned for the rest of the season was a sharp reminder of their remaining quality on the field.
The Swans admitted this week they had effectively torpedoed their premiership campaign by standing down superstars Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey as well as key members James Jordon and Riley Bice after their club investigation into what happened at the Pullman Hotel after their win over Essendon (action that was separate to Victoria Police's investigation).
And that torpedoing may still prove the case. But the win over the Kangaroos, who had little to play for, was still a reminder of what is out there as the Swans hunt September success and how they dominate the SCG – their win was their 10th out of 11 games at the SCG this year and they will play two finals there after securing second position on the ladder.
Charlie Curnow was strong if inaccurate, Errol Gulden stepped up with 41 disposals, Brodie Grundy had another day out and Tom Papley was hard to stop. Plus the likes of soon-to-be first-time finals players Jesse Dattoli and Billy Cootee (three goals) also performed well.
But the emotion and tears that flowed post-game from Gulden, captain Callum Mills and veteran Dane Rampe showed that the weight of the club's heaviest week amid serious allegations would remain.
MORRIS' MAULING
LOGAN Morris is in elite company already. A third premiership would catapult him into the history books.
Morris' eight goals on Friday night saw the Brisbane spearhead jump to 63 goals for the season and a runner-up place in the Coleman Medal race.
He is also behind only Lance Franklin for most goals this century by a player aged 22 and under, with Morris now up to 140 goals. Franklin's 184 set the bar, but Morris has leapt ahead of Jack Riewoldt (132), Jeremy Cameron (120) and Jack Darling (118) as other fast-starting goalkickers.
He also became just the sixth player to kick eight goals or more when aged 22 or under since 1999, joining the likes of Matthew Lloyd, Franklin, Nick and Jack Riewoldt and Lance Whitnall.
The evolution in Morris this season has been taking on and owning the responsibility as the main man in Brisbane's attack. He stepped into that role last year but has taken even more of the load this season, with the 21-year-old one of the game's leading players for scoreboard impact points – counting his own scores as well as direct assists.
Brisbane goes to him more than any player and it retains possession of the ball 60 per cent of the time it kicks to Morris inside 50, according to Champion Data. Morris just doesn't get beaten – he has been outmarked just once in 46 contests (with a loss ratio of 2.2 per cent, the best record of the top 25 players in this category).
Morris' mauling of Collingwood's defence came alongside a helpful return to form for Oscar Allen (four goals) and Eric Hipwood (three) as Brisbane's other key forward posts, as the Lions again cracked Collingwood in the midfield.
Brisbane smashed Collingwood in the clearances by 16, having beaten it by 18 in the same measure earlier this year in round four. It has been a constant concern for Collingwood that Brisbane opened up and saw them feed Morris time after time, with the Pies winning the clearance count only six times this season. Lachie Neale, anyone?
PENDLES' HUGE CALL COMING
IT BACKFIRED on the Pies. The plan to play a full-strength team on Friday night against Brisbane achieved little for Collingwood and lost plenty.
The hamstring strain for Scott Pendlebury suffered in the almost dead rubber may have seen him play his last game for Collingwood.
A 38-year-old Pendlebury playing a key role in next week's historic first Wildcard Round against the Western Bulldogs in a knockout final would have added to the huge build-up, particularly after a calf injury in the early moments of last year's preliminary final robbed the Pies of one of their crucial players.
But his season could be over after a hamstring injury was confirmed in Friday night's loss to Brisbane.
The backdrop of his fitness fight is that Pendlebury faces a massive call on his future in coming weeks – retire, play on at Collingwood or move clubs.
He has interest in playing on, but there has yet to be a contract offered from Collingwood. His agent Anthony Panozzo from Hemisphere Management Group on Friday told AFL.com.au: "Scott will not be making a decision on his future until season's end. His eyes are firmly fixed on Collingwood's finals series."
Meanwhile, Gold Coast is among the clubs strongly circling him, as was Essendon, which he knocked back.
Pendlebury finishing his career at a club like the Suns, and then moving into a coaching role, wouldn't taint his Collingwood legacy. The smattering of champion Hawks who ended their careers elsewhere – like Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Isaac Smith – remain brown and gold royalty despite their late career moves.
Being the VFL/AFL games record holder wouldn't change that scenario for Pendlebury.
And if Pendlebury is intent on one day being a head coach – and maybe even Collingwood's senior coach – seeing things elsewhere in another environment would add to that coaching CV. It shapes as a fascinating call in coming weeks and one that all parties are remaining guarded on.
US GIANT CAPTURING INTEREST
US ATHLETE Hayden Curtiss is capturing interest from clubs after three American prospects toured Australia over the past fortnight.
Curtiss, Camden Dunbury and Cyril Martynov have spent the past two weeks in Australia, with Curtiss returning after last year flying out for a similar trial.
This time the trio trained at or toured seven different clubs – Gold Coast, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn and Melbourne – before also completing an extra skills session at Gosch's Paddock on Thursday where more club recruiters and scouts assessed their chances.
Curtiss shapes as the standout option at this stage, with the 210cm soccer player and basketballer impressing with his left foot kicking and disposal through trainings.
Clubs are able to list players at any time as category B rookies under international rules, with 24-year-old Curtiss shaping as the leading contender of the group.
The AFL held its US Combine in Dallas in June, in what was the second year of the returning focus on attracting American athletes to the game.