THE Western Bulldogs and Collingwood will play the first ever wildcard final as what would have previously been a weeks-long battle for an elimination final spot will now be decided in a winner-takes-all clash.
The Dogs bounced back from a mid-season slump that included four consecutive defeats to win eight of their next 11 matches and climb to within touching distance of the top four. But back-to-back losses and a draw on the run home meant they needed a round 24 victory over the Demons to find momentum heading into finals.
The Magpies were at real risk of missing the finals as they turned for home at the bye at 5-1-7 before they reeled off six wins on the trot to briefly keep their top-six hopes alive. Two losses and a draw, as well as a win, in the last four rounds locked the Pies into the wildcard places even as injuries to key players mounted up.
The Bulldogs are sweating on the fitness of key forward Aaron Naughton, while the Magpies will hope Isaac Quaynor and Pat Lipinski can prove their fitness, especially with Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard among those sidelined.
Where and when: MCG, Friday August 28, 7.40pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 12: Western Bulldogs 14.13 (97) defeated Collingwood 13.15 (93) at Marvel Stadium
The Bulldogs and Magpies were both trying to kickstart their campaign as they sat in ninth and 10th spot respectively at the time of their mid-season meeting. The stars on each side helped get the contest going as Marcus Bontempelli led the Dogs with 22 disposals, nine clearances and a goal, while Nick Daicos continued his stellar form with 37 disposals, five clearances and one major for the Pies. But it was a pair of unheralded Bulldogs who stood tallest when the game was on the line, as Will Lewis booted the last of his three goals with under five minutes remaining to give his side breathing space. Magpies forward Tim Membrey responded almost immediately with his third of the night to bring the margin to under a goal before Dogs defender Michael Sellwood pulled down a match-saving mark to seal the win in a nailbiter.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Western Bulldogs
The Dogs have flipped their game style of recent years with more of a focus on defensive steel rather than backing their firepower in a free-flowing shootout. The Bulldogs are among the top five sides defensively since round 9 as they have conceded 100 points or more only twice in that 15-game stretch, though they will need to get the balance right at the MCG against a Magpies’ defence that is ranked sixth across the season.
Collingwood
The Magpies have been a middle-of-the-road side for much of the year and have sat in the wildcard positions for the last nine rounds of the season. Two wins over the Blues make up the majority of their three victories against the other nine finalists, while they have drawn twice with the Hawks and their nine defeats were all to sides that finished above them on the ladder. But the Pies can turn to a newfound potency in attack after passing 100 points four times in their last nine matches while only hitting the mark once in their first 14 games this season.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...
Western Bulldogs
The Dogs have taken another blow to their tall stocks with Aaron Naughton under a cloud due to an ankle issue and unlikely to be at full fitness even if he is available for selection. Ruck Tim English is no certainty to return after missing the past two matches with a knee injury, while Sam Darcy remains sidelined with a torn ACL. Coach Luke Beveridge might have little choice but to call on captain Marcus Bontempelli (30 goals) to spend more time in attack as the club’s second-highest goalkicker this year, sitting behind Naughton who has led the way with 46 majors. Livewire forward Arthur Jones (21 goals) will also need to be a target inside 50 as the Dogs search for extra avenues to goal, with the side ranked only 14th for scoring this season while the focus has shifted more toward tightening up their defence.
Collingwood
Jordan De Goey is a proven big-game performer and will enter the finals in fine touch after gathering 32 disposals, six clearances and two goals in the Magpies’ round 24 defeat to the Lions. The 30-year-old’s return to form comes just at the right time for the Pies as they look to bolster the midfield around the ever-reliable Nick Daicos, who has averaged a competition-leading 34.9 disposals as well as 5.7 clearances and more than a goal a game. Young gun Sam Swadling has been a welcome addition to the Pies' onball brigade in recent weeks and impressed again with 32 touches and a goal against the two-time reigning premiers. But Beau McCreery could be the spark to ignite Collingwood's engine room with his pace enough to match Western Bulldogs’ speedster Ed Richards and even open up the game.
PREDICTION
The Western Bulldogs and Collingwood have both been unconvincing as they have stumbled into the finals, with each winning only one match over the past four weeks. Their injury concerns are likely to play out at the same end of the field on Friday night with the Dogs having to search for solutions in attack while the Pies are set to rely on an undermanned defence. But the Magpies’ troubles with top-half sides for much of the season makes it hard to see them winning the first-ever wildcard final. Western Bulldogs by 11 points.