ACROSS the AFL, the staring contests are beginning.
The boards and senior executives at five clubs – two who are about to embark on 2026 finals campaigns and three whose seasons have already ended short of hopes – are entering the dreaded phase of determining how to deal with coaches about to enter the final years of contracts.
No one wants to be seen blinking in these moments. But inevitably, football people do blink. A re-contracted coach, even an underperforming coach, removes the one thing football clubs often loathe most and can't control – media scrutiny.
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St Kilda, North Melbourne and West Coast, which all missed the 2026 top 10 by a very long way, will be able to properly analyse the plights of their end-of-2027-contracted coaches far quicker than Western Bulldogs, which play Collingwood on Friday night in a wildcard final, and Adelaide, which on September 5 will be awaiting the highest-ranked wildcard final winner in an elimination final.
The smart moves for the Saints, Roos and Eagles would be to let Ross Lyon, Alastair Clarkson and Andrew McQualter coach their way to new deals via home-and-away season wins, as I highly doubt any of the trio would be instantly offered a senior job elsewhere.
St Kilda's powerbrokers, led by president Andrew Bassat, remain obsessed with Ross Lyon, though, and haven't deviated off the awe in which they hold him after the heady days of October 2022, when they decided to sack Brett Ratten – less than 100 days after publicly trumpeting Ratten's re-signing – and install Lyon as coach on a five-year deal.
It wouldn't surprise me that when board meetings are held at Moorabbin, the board reports to Lyon, not the coach to the board as happens at 17 other clubs, even after ladder finishes of seventh, 12th, 12th and 11th under Lyon.
The Saints remain adamant the transformation of their playing list will lead to finals appearances and I'm tipping them to announce a Lyon contract extension, possibly before round one 2027, of at least two seasons.
McQualter's situation is intriguing. The Eagles presented him a three-year deal when they signed him in late 2024. He has won five of 46 matches, and lost the last 12 of 13. His plight was admittedly dire upon appointment, but he might need to produce positive results in the first half of the 2027 season to be assured of a new contract.
North Melbourne's deliberations over Clarkson will be intriguing. It's been 17th, 17th, 16th and 14th for the Roos under the watch of the four-time Hawks premiership coach.
I have been regularly critical of Clarkson. I do concede that in 2026 he managed to get the Roos to stay competitive for longer periods of matches. But the Roos finished three-and-a-half matches beneath the wildcard slot, and four-and-a-half matches behind the "old top-eight" level, and I didn't see enough to believe that performances in 2026 would naturally lead to a better win-loss outcome in 2027.
Clarkson, like Lyon, is a control freak and would therefore hate being told that in 2027 he needs to coach his way to a deal for 2028 and beyond. But that is what I argue that North, led by president Sonja Hood and CEO Jen Watt, need to do. And if Clarkson blows up and rejects that plan, which he would be more than capable of doing, well, that's on him, not the club.
The decisions which need to be made at Western Bulldogs with Luke Beveridge and Adelaide with Matthew Nicks will be placed on hold for at least another week, with both clubs qualifying for elimination finals.
The Bulldogs have expertly been down this path once before with Beveridge, in 2025, where he earned a two-year extension. They will remain patient and calm with their deliberations, as they were in 2025, comforted by the fact they have a coach who in 12 seasons has twice reached Grand Finals and only once failed to produce a double-digit win tally.
Nicks knows he needs to win his elimination final this year. In his seventh season as Adelaide coach, and having overseen a straight sets exit, from No.1 position on the ladder, last year, there would be no chance the Crows would seek to re-contract him beyond 2027 prior to its start should he not register an inaugural finals win.
There's a sixth coach currently without a deal beyond 2027.
But with three consecutive Grand Final appearances, two consecutive premierships, eight straight finals appearances and outright favouritism for the 2026 flag, Chris Fagan has placed himself in the untouchable zone, the rarest of AFL air where he will get to choose what he does.
No need for the Lions to blink.