SYDNEY has had time to reflect on its troubling end to the home and away campaign but now faces a major test of its depth as it hosts a qualifying final against two-time reigning premier Brisbane. 

The Swans locked in a top-two finish with one round remaining but will be without Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, James Jordon and Riley Bice for the rest of the season due to a club suspension. A victory over a lacklustre North Melbourne in round 24 was Sydney's fifth in a row against non-finalists and should boost its hopes that it can overcome the loss of five key players. But the Swans are also staring at a worrying record against the leading teams this year with only one win – against the Lions in round one – in six matches against the rest of the eventual top six.

The Lions have mastered timing their run towards a premiership tilt in recent years and are primed for another finals campaign after winning 10 of their past 11 matches by an average of 48 points. That stretch of victories includes a resounding win against Sydney as well as triumphs over fellow top-six sides Hawthorn and Geelong, with Brisbane's only blemish in that time a thumping defeat to Carlton. The Lions will be licking their lips at the opportunity to face the undermanned Swans in a qualifying final on the road with the prize of a home preliminary final there for the taking. 

Sydney is sweating on the fitness of key forward Joel Amartey and important midfielder Justin McInerney as it looks to bolster its playing stocks for the finals. The Swans could also recall ruck-forward Hayden McLean and defender Lewis Melican after the duo returned for a hitout as the VFL side's finals campaign ended last week. Brisbane expects Hugh McCluggage to return from his latest stint on the sidelines due to recurring calf problems. With few other injury concerns, the Lions' depth looms as a huge strength in their bid for a premiership three-peat.

Where and when: SCG, Saturday September 5, 3.15pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 16: Brisbane 19.12 (126) defeated Sydney 12.11 (83) at the Gabba

Brisbane was just starting to get its premiership defence humming as it made a mid-season statement with a commanding victory against Sydney. The Lions began the contest with ferocious intensity and hunted in packs to open up an early lead, then increased the margin at each change despite the best efforts of Swans midfielder Warner (28 disposals, four goals). Lions co-captain Josh Dunkley (26 disposals, nine tackles) balanced shackling Heeney at stoppages with finding his own ball, while midfielders Will Ashcroft (30 disposals, eight clearances) and Lachie Neale (27, seven) also set the tone in a warning to the rest of the competition.

Round 1: Sydney 15.14 (104) defeated Brisbane 8.12 (60) at the SCG

Sydney led from start to finish as it laid down a marker with an early-season victory against an understrength Brisbane. The Swans kicked the first seven goals of the game and Amartey finished with five majors while the Lions were unable to overcome the absence of the suspended Harris Andrews, Zac Bailey and Darcy Gardiner, as well as an injured McCluggage. Tom McCartin amassed a career-high 27 disposals and Blakey (25, one goal) added drive out of defence, but the Swans' win came at a cost as Errol Gulden (20, one) sustained a shoulder injury that would sideline him until a rematch with the Lions in round 16.  

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Sydney

The Swans are the highest-scoring team in the competition and had prized recruit Charlie Curnow boot 69 goals to win his third Coleman Medal as their attack benefits from rapid transitions starting in the back half. The side's commitment to forward handball through the middle of the field has been a key to their counterpunching approach and seven Swans are among the top 16 players in the competition for average handball metres gained with Blakey leading the way. But with four of those players currently suspended by the club, and McInerney under a fitness cloud, captain Callum Mills and youngster Angus Sheldrick will shoulder more of the load in getting the Swans' ball movement flowing.

Brisbane

The Lions have risen to the top with a blend of controlled and frenetic ball movement that allows them to punish opposition mistakes and lock the ball forward to pile on scores that make them hard to beat. They have become an attacking powerhouse through being ranked third for inside 50s and second for scores per inside 50, first for defensive-50 to inside-50 chains and third for points from turnover, and perhaps most importantly second for points scored. The Lions have more concerns in the back half and conceded the most points during the home and away campaign of the eight sides that are still alive.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Sydney

Errol Gulden has arguably been the Swans' most important midfielder even as he has faced long stints on the sidelines across each of the past two seasons. The 24-year-old took time to find his touch after returning from shoulder surgery to face the Lions in round 16 but has hit peak form at just the right time. The tireless runner amassed 202 disposals as the Swans won their last five matches on the run home for the fourth-most that Champion Data has recorded across that stretch of games. Gulden cannot be expected to do it all on his own but will have to carry more of the load than usual, and perhaps have Dunkley for company, with the Swans' midfield decimated by club suspensions and McInerney still on his way back from injury. 

Brisbane

Will Ashcroft has shown he can rise to the occasion when playing on the grandest stages as he has earned Norm Smith Medals in the past two years. The 22-year-old might also be playing with a chip on his shoulder after being overlooked for selection in the All-Australian even after an outstanding season when he took command of the Lions' midfield. Ashcroft likely paid a price for his middling start to the season but has stormed home with a stunning stretch of form that was a key to the Lions winning 10 of their last 11 games on the run home. The son-of-a-gun was a top 10 rated player in the competition as he averaged 31 disposals and six clearances across that period and should have more to give as his side moves closer to his usual time to shine.  

PREDICTION

Sydney could be left to wonder what might have been after locking in a top-two finish and a pair of home finals was soon followed by events that will leave it undermanned for the rest of the season. Even at full strength, the Swans would still face questions over their ability to beat the very top sides, while the Lions have been here before as they enter an eighth consecutive finals campaign and are again peaking at just the right time. Brisbane by 31 points.