ADELAIDE was able to sit back and watch the wildcard round unfold but is now right back in the furnace as it chases a first finals win in nine years in an elimination final against the Western Bulldogs.

The Crows were unable to take advantage of making their long-awaited return to finals as minor premiers last year when they failed to win even a quarter during a straight-sets exit. The cards fell their way this time as they leapfrogged the Demons in the last round to avoid the wildcard spots though they will have to navigate a series of knockout games if they are to make a deep finals run. The Crows have had a strong back half of the year which has included wins over the Dogs, as well as top-six sides the Cats and the Swans, and have only lost once in their past 11 matches against interstate visitors on their home turf. 

The Bulldogs are building momentum at just the right time as they backed up a draw with the red-hot Blues with an impressive round 24 victory over the Demons, then hung on for a gritty wildcard win against the Magpies last week. Their record against the other seven remaining sides with only three wins and a draw – and a percentage of 73.3 – from 12 matches gives cause for concern. But the Dogs can turn to a more promising recent record at Adelaide Oval, with wins at the venue against the Crows and Power this year, although they were also thumped by the Hawks at the venue during Gather Round.  

Adelaide will lose Zac Taylor due to a hamstring injury from the side that crushed GWS in the last round but can turn to Callum Ah Chee after the first-year recruit was managed for that game. Key defender Jordon Butts has recovered from an ankle injury and will hope to be recalled but midfielder James Peatling will miss again due to a hip and groin issue. The Western Bulldogs will be forced to make one change after Matthew Kennedy sustained a concussion in the wildcard win but Aaron Naughton is expected to play despite copping a knock to his hip against Collingwood.

Where and when: Adelaide Oval, Saturday September 5, 7.05pm ACST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 14: Adelaide 19.7 (121) defeated Western Bulldogs 9.10 (64) at Marvel Stadium

Adelaide sent a warning shot across the competition as it blew away the Bulldogs with a nine-goal opening term. The contest was all but decided as the Crows took a 41-point lead over the Dogs into the first change with Jordan Dawson instrumental to the scintillating start with three early goals. The Crows skipper finished with 32 disposals, while Josh Rachele booted four goals and key forward Riley Thilthorpe bullied the Dogs' undersized defenders to kick three majors.

Round 2: Western Bulldogs 14.10 (94) defeated Adelaide 13.10 (88) at Adelaide Oval

The Western Bulldogs put themselves among the early pacesetters as they won a second game on the road against a top-four contender and for the third time in as many matches in a nailbiter against Adelaide. Oskar Baker was the unlikely hero as the Dogs held off the fast-finishing Crows on their home turf. Marcus Bontempelli (30 disposals, seven clearances) inspired the Bulldogs throughout and lifted in the dying stages after the returning Izak Rankine put the Crows in front for the first time in more than two quarters and with only 10 minutes remaining. Bailey Williams pulled the Dogs back to level pegging with five minutes left before Baker had the final say with a stunning match-winning goal. 

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Adelaide

The Crows returned to finals last year with them ranked second for points against and third for scoring but have found it harder to get the balance right this season. They are again ranked second for points against, now behind the Dockers, though have dropped to seventh for scoring despite being ranked first for goalkicking accuracy. The problems start in the back half with the Crows ranked 15th for defensive-50 to inside-50 chains. Once they get the ball in their attacking third, they have plenty of firepower as one of only two sides to have five players – Josh Rachele (38), Thilthorpe (34), Taylor Walker (32), Darcy Fogarty and Ben Keays (both 30) – to have kicked 30 goals or more. 

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs may have overcorrected as last year’s highest-scoring team was ranked 14th for points-for during this home and away season even as they tightened up their defence. But they rediscovered a way to score heavily as they took command of the clearances during the wildcard final against the Magpies. The Dogs booted 5.3 from centre clearance as they won that count by 19-9, and finished with 6.7 from all stoppages in what proved to be a critical area of dominance in a tight game. The Bulldogs will turn to Ed Richards (average six clearances), Bontempelli (5.7) and Joel Freijah (3.9) at the coalface with Kennedy joining Tom Liberatore on the sidelines. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Adelaide

Izak Rankine arrives for his first final in a rich vein of form and primed to atone for his suspension for using a homophobic slur towards a Magpies opponent last year that cost him and the Crows dearly in a dismal end to their campaign. The dynamic goalsneak-turned-onballer has been all but unstoppable across the past eight matches when he has been the highest-rated player in the competition. Rankine has averaged 31 disposals and eight clearances during that stretch, while also booting 12 goals, as he prepares to carry the Crows to a breakthrough finals victory. 

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs’ roll of the dice to bring back Tim English for their wildcard final against the Magpies paid off even as the ruck looked underdone on his return from a knee injury. The 29-year-old’s importance to the side was underlined by the decisions to play Ryan Gardner for only 16 per cent of the game and to keep Rory Lobb forward even as he had little impact. English finished with 20 disposals, four clearances and 33 hitouts against the Pies, but his value remains in helping Bontempelli, Richards and the rest of the Bulldogs’ onball brigade to gain the ascendancy at stoppages. 

PREDICTION

A week after the Western Bulldogs broke through for their first finals victory in five seasons the spotlight now turns on to Adelaide’s attempts to snap its own hoodoo after nine years of pain. There will be no second chances for the Crows this time in a do-or-die clash that could make or break their era under coach Matthew Nicks. The banged-up Dogs were gallant as they barely hung on against the Magpies but will find the next step is one too far as they face the Crows on their home turf. Adelaide by 23 points.