SURELY not again?

This time last year, Adelaide was facing the prospect of becoming the first team since 1983 to finish on top of the ladder and lose two straight finals.

And the Crows did just that, following up their qualifying final loss to Collingwood with defeat at the hands of Hawthorn a week later to end their season.

Now, Fremantle is facing the same fate after losing to the Hawks on Thursday night, with Geelong to make the trip to Optus Stadium for a semi-final.

Could we see a minor premier make a straight-sets finals exit for the second year in a row?

The Dockers are the eighth minor premiers since 2000 to lose their qualifying final, and recovering from such a defeat hasn't been easy.

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Of the previous seven, only two went on to make the Grand Final, with four losing a preliminary final and the other – last year's Crows – making a straight-sets exit.

But Freo can hold out some hope, with the previous two sides to reach the decider after losing their qualifying final having also been non-Victorian teams – and it can take some inspiration from its closest rival.

In 2006, West Coast bounced back from a thrilling loss to Sydney in their home qualifying final to reach the Grand Final, beating the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide before edging the Swans in the decider.

Ben Cousins and Chris Judd of the Eagles celebrate victory after the AFL Grand Final match between the Sydney Swans and the West Coast Eagles at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 30, 2006 in Melbourne, Australia. Picture: AFL Photos

Ten years later, it was the Swans, who after losing to Greater Western Sydney beat Adelaide and Geelong before falling to the Bulldogs in the Grand Final.

And, 10 years later, the Dockers get a chance to repeat those feats.

Somewhat surprisingly, the minor premiership has proven to be an unreliable indicator for Grand Final success since 2000.

Of the 26 previous minor premiers, only nine went on to win the flag, although another nine did make the decider.

Minor premiers since 2000

2026: Fremantle (lost QF, plays ?? in SF)
2025: Adelaide (lost QF, lost SF)
2024: Sydney (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2023: Collingwood (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2022: Geelong (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2021: Melbourne (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2020: Port Adelaide (won QF, lost PF)
2019: Geelong (lost QF, won SF, lost PF)
2018: Richmond (won QF, lost PF)
2017: Adelaide (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2016: Sydney (lost QF, won SF, won PF, lost GF)
2015: Fremantle (won QF, lost PF)
2014: Sydney (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2013: Hawthorn (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2012: Hawthorn (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2011: Collingwood (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2010: Collingwood (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2009: St Kilda (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2008: Geelong (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2007: Geelong (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2006: West Coast (lost QF, won SF, won PF, won GF)
2005: Adelaide (lost QF, won SF, lost PF)
2004: Port Adelaide (won QF, won PF, won GF)
2003: Port Adelaide (lost QF, won SF, lost PF)
2002: Port Adelaide (lost QF, won SF, lost PF)
2001: Essendon (won QF, won PF, lost GF)
2000: Essendon (won QF, won PF, won GF)