BRISBANE has to take the long route again to reach a fourth consecutive Grand Final while Adelaide has more demons to banish even after securing a breakthrough finals win. 

The Lions will need to play four finals to seal a premiership three-peat – just as they did in the past two years – after their shock loss to the undermanned Sydney in a qualifying final. Chris Fagan's side has shown in the past it can bounce back quickly even from the most demoralising defeats, including when beaten by Geelong at the same stage last year. Brisbane can also point to a competition-wide record of all 12 teams to lose a qualifying final by 50 points or more this century recovering to win the next week. 

The Crows silenced their critics and gave coach Matthew Nicks' hopes of staying in the role a huge boost as they fought off a late Western Bulldogs challenge to win their elimination final. The finals victory was the Crows' first since 2017 and washed away some of the pain of their straight-sets exit as minor premiers last year. But Adelaide has another hoodoo to snap this week after failing to beat Brisbane at the Gabba since 2018, and only winning two of their 10 meetings at any venue in that time, as it seeks to make a serious finals statement.

Brisbane might look to shake things up after a lacklustre performance in its loss to Sydney though defender Noah Answerth's ankle issue was the only new injury concern. Ty Gallop, Bruce Reville, Dan Annable, Keidean Coleman and Linc McCarthy are among those hoping for a call-up if the Lions turn to their enviable depth. Adelaide got through its elimination final unscathed but could recall Zac Taylor if he passes a fitness test after missing one match due to a hamstring strain.

Where and when: Gabba, Saturday September 12, 7.35pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 7: Brisbane 19.13 (127) defeated Adelaide 11.9 (75) at the Gabba

Brisbane showed it remained among the premiership contenders as it delivered its first dominant display of the year in a rout of top-four hopeful Adelaide. The Lions ran rampant either side of half-time as they outmuscled the Crows at the contest and piled on 11 of the 12 goals to put the result beyond doubt. Zac Bailey had a day out with an equal career-high 29 disposals and three goals, Lachie Neale (42) had the ball on a string and Charlie Cameron booted four goals for the Lions. Crows captain Jordan Dawson stood tall on his return after dealing with personal tragedy to gather 28 disposals and two majors. But the Crows lacked enough contributors to compete as they dropped to 13th spot with a 3-4 record.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Brisbane
The Lions are on familiar ground as they reach at least the semi-final stage for the eighth consecutive season. But alarm bells will be ringing for coach Fagan as the Lions conceded more than 20 goals for the third time in 14 matches in their qualifying final defeat, as the Swans had 69-52 inside-50s – the third time the reigning premiers have let in such a high number of forward entries this year. Perhaps of more concern for Brisbane is that its star-studded midfield was unable to contain Sydney at stoppage and it conceded 6.3 while only scoring 1.0 from centre ball-ups. 

Adelaide
The Crows have won only two of their seven matches against the six remaining teams this season. That includes a loss to the Lions that was also the Crows' heaviest defeat of the year though it must be noted that it came in the aftermath of the most emotional circumstances for captain Jordan Dawson. Adelaide's resurgence over the past two years has been powered by its defensive solidity, as the No.2 side for points against in both seasons. But like Brisbane it needs to limit supply to the opposition's forwards after finishing -12 for inside-50s even in its elimination final win. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Brisbane
Zac Bailey hardly needed to audition in front of the Lions' semi-final opponents as he weighed up a lucrative offer from the Crows. But the back-to-back All-Australian can now give an early reminder of what they missed out on after he signed an eight-year deal to stay with the Lions. The reigning premiers went to great lengths to hang on to the 26-year-old who can have as much impact across the forward line as in the midfield and has booted 31 goals while averaging a career-high 21.7 disposals a game. Bailey was far from the Lions' worst in their qualifying final humbling. But with his side now thrown into do-or-die clashes for the rest of the season, he can start repaying the Lions' faith in him with a run of influential performances.

Adelaide
Josh Worrell has been a key to the Crows' defensive prowess over the past two seasons but outdid even himself with a record-breaking performance in the win against the Bulldogs. The 25-year-old finished with 34 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 10 marks and 497m gained as he regularly turned defence into attack. Worrell also gathered 19 intercepts for not only the most of any player in a game this year – but the most ever recorded in a final. While the 2025 All-Australian squad member cut off the Dogs' forward entries, Wayne Milera's 27 disposals at 100 per cent efficiency punished them on the rebound, and both will be critical to the Crows exploiting the Lions' weakness from turnovers this week.  

PREDICTION

The Lions showed all the signs of a side on the decline after a sustained period of success in their listless loss to the Swans. But the two-time reigning premiers have proven in the past they can have an off day and then immediately respond. The Crows have released some pressure after throwing the finals monkey off their back but with the worst record of the remaining sides against one another, the trip to the Gabba will be a step too far. Brisbane by 21 points.