THE NAB League reaches its home-and-away crescendo this weekend with the last round of matches before the finals – and there are still many permutations that can take place.
The competition’s finals format sees the top three teams earn a week off next week for the Wildcard Weekend, with the other 10 teams to play knockout games to fill the last five spots in the top eight.
Then it is a straight knockout right through the finals, with the four quarter final winners progressing to the semis and then those two winners playing for the flag.
Let’s take a look at where each team could finish entering the business end of the season.
GIPPSLAND POWER
1st, 10-2, 140.30%
RECENT FORM: Lost 2 out of 3 after being 9-0
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to GWV (12); def Northern (100); lost to Tasmania (11); def Oakleigh (6); def Sandringham (5)
ROUND 16: v Dandenong Stingrays, Friday, 7.30pm, Skybus Stadium
IF THEY WIN: Will claim the minor premiership.
IF THEY LOSE: Should still finish top, unless they lose by enough to drop the 8.84% lead they have over Tasmania – roughly seven goals. A 15-goal loss could see the Power slip to third.
PREDICTION: 10-3 (1st)
TASMANIA DEVILS
2nd, 10-3, 131.90%
RECENT FORM: Won 4 in a row and 6 out of 7
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Northern (34); def Calder (83); def Gippsland (11); def Bendigo (69); lost to Dandenong (80)
ROUND 16: Bye
SUMMARY: Will finish first if Gippsland loses by about seven goals, or second if the Power lose by less or win. Can’t drop below second because if Dandenong wins by enough to catch them, the Power will cop a big enough percentage hit to fall below.
PREDICTION: 10-3 (2nd)
DANDENONG STINGRAYS
3rd, 9-3, 114.90%
RECENT FORM: Won 6 out of 7
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Bendigo (7); lost to Eastern (8); def Murray (3); def Oakleigh (12); def Tasmania (80)
ROUND 16: v Gippsland Power, Friday, 7.30pm, Skybus Stadium
IF THEY WIN: Can finish first if they win by about 15 goals, second if they win by more than seven goals or third if the margin is closer.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish third if GWV loses, but can slide to fourth if the Rebels win, with the percentage differential between the teams equating to about 11 points.
PREDICTION: 10-3 (3rd)
GWV REBELS
4th, 8-4, 113.70%
RECENT FORM: Won 3 in a row and 5 out of 6
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Gippsland (12); def Eastern (33); def Western (46); lost to Sandringham (17); def Northern (14)
ROUND 16: v Geelong Falcons, Sunday, 2pm, Queen Elizabeth Oval
IF THEY WIN: Will finish third if Dandenong loses and they make up roughly 11 points in percentage, otherwise they will be fourth.
IF THEY LOSE: Will drop at least to fifth behind the Falcons, sixth if Eastern wins and seventh if Sandringham also wins. Could also drop to seventh with a Dragons loss if Oakleigh can make up the percentage gap.
PREDICTION: 9-4 (4th)
GEELONG FALCONS
5th, 7-4-1, 109.90%
RECENT FORM: Lost 3 out of 4
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to Western (2); lost to Sandringham (22); def Bendigo (25); lost to Murray (18); def Calder (42)
ROUND 16: v GWV Rebels, Sunday, 2pm, Queen Elizabeth Oval
IF THEY WIN: Will finish fourth.
IF THEY LOSE: Will drop to sixth behind the winner of Sandringham and Oakleigh and seventh if Eastern also wins.
PREDICTION: 7-5-1 (7th)
EASTERN RANGES
6th, 7-5, 124.90%
RECENT FORM: Won 5 out of 6
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Sandringham (77); lost to GWV (33); def Dandenong (8); def Western (52); def Calder (36)
ROUND 16: v Calder Cannons, Saturday, 3pm, RSEA Park
IF THEY WIN: Will finish fifth unless the Sandringham or Oakleigh beats the other by enough to haul in the big percentage gap, otherwise sixth.
IF THEY LOSE: Will fall to seventh behind the winner of the Dragons and Chargers or eighth if Murray wins. Small possibility of dropping to ninth, but that would mean dropping a massive chunk of percentage.
PREDICTION: 8-5 (5th)
SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS
7th, 7-5, 114.30%
RECENT FORM: Won 4 out of 6
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to Eastern (77); def Geelong (22); def GWV (17); lost to Gippsland (5); def Western (40)
ROUND 16: v Oakleigh Chargers, Saturday, 12.30pm, RSEA Park
IF THEY WIN: Will finish fifth if Eastern loses or sixth if the Ranges win.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish eighth, or ninth if Murray wins.
PREDICTION: 8-5 (6th)
OAKLEIGH CHARGERS
8th, 7-5, 109.70%
RECENT FORM: lost 4 out of 5
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to Western (37); def Murray (5); lost to Gippsland (6); lost to Dandenong (12); lost to GWV (25)
ROUND 16: v Sandringham Dragons, Saturday, 12.30pm, RSEA Park
IF THEY WIN: Will finish fifth if Geelong and Eastern both lose but can still get that high if GWV loses and they make up the 3.91% difference, otherwise they will be sixth. If Eastern wins, they will most likely finish seventh – again percentage pending.
IF THEY LOSE: Will stay in eighth spot if Murray loses or drop to ninth if the Bushrangers win.
PREDICTION: 7-6 (9th)
MURRAY BUSHRANGERS
9th, 6-6, 121.50%
RECENT FORM: lost 3 in a row and 5 out of 8
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to Calder (11); lost to Oakleigh (5); lost to Dandenong (3); def Geelong (18); def Bendigo (10)
ROUND 16: v Bendigo Pioneers, Sunday, 11.30am, Queen Elizabeth Oval
IF THEY WIN: Given their strong percentage, they will finish seventh if Eastern loses or eighth if the Ranges win.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish ninth.
PREDICTION: 7-6 (8th)
WESTERN JETS
10th, 4-8, 83.50%
RECENT FORM: Won 2 in a row after losing the previous 6
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Oakleigh (37); def Geelong (2); lost to GWV (46); lost to Eastern (52); lost to Sandringham (40)
ROUND 16: v Northern Knights, Saturday, 10am, Preston City Oval
IF THEY WIN: Will finish 10th unless Calder wins and makes up a huge 13.13% deficit, then 11th.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 10th if Calder loses or 11th if the Cannons win.
PREDICTION: 5-8 (10th)
CALDER CANNONS
11th, 4-8, 70.40%
RECENT FORM: Won last game after losing previous five in a row
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Murray (11); lost to Tasmania (83); lost to Northern (41); lost to Eastern (36); lost to Geelong (42)
ROUND 16: v Eastern Ranges, Saturday, 3pm, RSEA Park
IF THEY WIN: Will finish 10th if Western loses, otherwise 11th. Can get to 10th if both win and the Cannons make up 13.13% - which equates to about 150 points.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 11th.
PREDICTION: 4-9 (11th)
BENDIGO PIONEERS
12th, 2-9-1, 81.40%
RECENT FORM: lost 4 out of 5
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to Dandenong (7); def Northern (1); lot to Geelong (25); lost to Tasmania (69); lost to Murray (10)
ROUND 16: v Murray Bushrangers, Sunday, 11.30am, Queen Elizabeth Oval
IF THEY WIN: Will finish 12th.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 12 if Northern loses and 13th if the Knights win.
PREDICTION: 2-10-1 (12th)
NORTHERN KNIGHTS
13th, 2-10, 72.00%
RECENT FORM: lost 10 out of 11
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost to Tasmania (34); lost to Gippsland (100); lost to Bendigo (1); def Calder (41); lost to GWV (14)
ROUND 16: v Western Jets, Saturday, 10am, Preston City Oval
IF THEY WIN: Will finish 12th if Bendigo loses or 13th if the Pioneers win.
IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 13th.
PREDICTION: 2-11 (13th)
NAB LEAGUE LADDER ROUND 15, click here
THIS WEEK
ROUND 16: Friday, August 19: Dandenong Stingrays v Gippsland Power (Skybus Stadium, 7.30pm). Saturday, August 20: Northern Knights v Western Jets (Genis Steel Oval, 10am) ; Sandringham Dragons v Oakleigh Chargers (RSEA Park, 12.30pm); Eastern Ranges v Calder Cannons (RSEA Park, 3pm). Sunday, August 21: Bendigo Pioneers v Murray Bushrangers (Queen Elizabeth Oval, 11.30am); GWV Rebels v Geelong Falcons (Queen Elizabeth Oval, 2pm). Bye: Tasmania Devils.
NEXT WEEK: August 26-27: Wildcard Round: 4 v 13, 5 v 12, 6 v 11, 7 v 10, 8 v 9
THEN: September 2-3: Quarter-Finals: 1st v lowest ranked Wildcard winner; 2nd v second-lowest ranked Wildcard winner; 3rd v third-lowest ranked Wildcard winner; fifth-lowest ranked Wildcard winner v fourth-lowest ranked Wildcard winner
(All games are streamed live on the NAB League app except for the Herald Sun games, which are on that website).
NAB LEAGUE LEADING GOALKICKERS
29: Zane Duursma (Gippsland) bye
29: Brandon Leary (Tasmania) bye
28: Aaron Cadman (GWV) bye
27: Will Splann (Tasmania) bye
26: Logan Morris (Western) bye
23: Brady Wright (GWV) bye
22: Harry Sheezel (Sandringham) bye
21: Ingo Dammersmith (Oakleigh) bye
20: Euriah Hollard (Geelong) bye
20: Jovan Petric (Western) bye
19: Beau Tedcastle (GWV) bye
18: Tom Gillet (Geelong) bye
17: Charlie Clarke (Sandringham) bye
17: Brayden George (Murray) bye
17: Fletcher Hart (Murray) bye
16: Bailey Humphrey (Gippsland) bye