AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at Josh Treacy's rise in 2026, why Josh Fraser has been treading carefully and more in Cal-culations
FREO'S MAN BUILT FOR THE BIG STAGE
JOSH Treacy is built for finals.
If Thursday night's comeback win for Fremantle over Sydney proved anything, it is that Treacy is ready to shoulder the Dockers' flag hopes in September.
The Dockers do not lack for anything and their 100-point second half against Sydney showed this is a team with no flaws, no missing pieces and no form worries.
The group has been assembled by list boss David Walls and his lieutenant recruiting manager David McMullin, and Treacy ranks atop their greatest hits.
The 2020 rookie draft selection now rates as a top-four player in that draft class, alongside Errol Gulden, Max Holmes and Riley Thilthorpe. Each of that quartet will be crucial players in their teams' flag hopes in September but, Treacy's big game and big moment awareness continues to show a special trend in Fremantle's run towards the Grand Final.
Treacy stepped up with four goals in the second half in Thursday's rollicking win over the Swans, taking him to 41 for the season. It's his third straight year of 40+ goals and he will soon crack 45 for the season, which will give him the most of any of his campaigns.
Champion Data shows Treacy is having a career-best campaign – highs in Player Ratings, disposals, marks, contested marks, goals and score involvements – but he is not a player whose stats necessarily jump off the page.
However, he is ranked the No.1 player in the AFL in one on one contests and his consistency has been a key part of his game this year, with 14 games of two or more goals. Of his 41 goals, 31 have been from 30 metres out and a quarter of them have been in the corridor, making for the Treacy Triangle where he is a commanding presence.
Fremantle has so many parts to its mix that make it formidable. Its defence is rock solid and led by a gun captain in Alex Pearce, its midfield is as stacked as any with Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw while Shai Bolton and (surely soon to be All-Australian) Murphy Reid have added an extra layer of class to their play around the ball, while Luke Jackson is a special ruckman who has done it before in a Grand Final.
But it is Treacy whose grip on the ball in big moments – both in attack and around the ground – makes him their most important player ahead of the finals. It is a September calling for him to make his own.
CARLTON'S CAREFUL PLAY
THIS is why Josh Fraser has been treading carefully.
The Blues were realistic about their set of games after Michael Voss' departure, knowing that some shifts and tweaks could put them in the mix to win games that – to be fair – Voss' side wasn't far off claiming anyway, if you forget the fadeouts.
And Carlton was able to do that with seven straight wins under Fraser.
But the bigger tests for the team – and Fraser's coaching credentials – was to come in this next block, and they failed badly in the first assignment on Saturday night.
The class differential between Hawthorn and Carlton in one of the wettest nights the MCG has seen in some time was clear. And it sets up an enormous clash next week against Collingwood, with the Blues needing to win that game to stay in touch with the top 10 and the possibility of a wildcard spot.
Precisely, Carlton has - alongside Fraser - been able to smartly manage the message about his senior coaching aspirations. It would have been silly for Fraser to divert from his original stance to put his hand up for the role over recent weeks only for the Blues to then face the tougher teams in the competition and for the losses to resume.
So Fraser and the Blues held their line knowing the type of defeat to the very best sides, like Hawthorn, was possible. They weren't the first and won't be the last team this year to be sliced apart by a Hawks side that remains one of the most skilful in the competition.
In the meantime, Carlton's coaching committee goes about its work and has met more than half a dozen of its assistant coaches target list. After that is done, the Blues will make contact with the likes of John Longmire and potentially Simon Goodwin to assess their interest in the job.
Regardless of how it finishes, Fraser's stint has made the club's list and playing group look a more attractive proposition than it appeared mid-year.
WAYWARD ROO
WHAT has happened to 'Nick the kick'?
Nick Larkey last year brilliantly detailed his set shot kicking routine to AFL.com.au, going through the squeeze, the spin, the strides, the targets, the trajectory. He might need a re-read of his own work.
The North Melbourne skipper kicked 3.4 on Friday night against Collingwood and played well in a game that was among his best for the season. But in a tight game, the misses were costly, with Champion Data showing his accuracy was 37.5 per cent but his expected accuracy was 68.7 per cent based on goalkicking trends. Larkey's accuracy of 55.4 per cent this season is his lowest of his career, with his previous worst of 57.6 per cent in 2022.
At his metronomic best, Larkey was kicking goals at 71 per cent accuracy in 2023, but in his past three games for North he has had 19 shots at goal for five goals, 11 behinds and three missed shots for a total accuracy of 26.2 per cent.
It's been one of those years for Larkey, who has now kicked 36.24 for the season – which is as many points as he booted in 2023 when he also kicked 71 goals.
WILL BOMBERS MAKE GIANT CALL?
AS ESSENDON searches for its next coach, the Bombers are also deciding on their football department structure, and who will run that department.
The Bombers have long been considering whether to split their football manager role, which AFL.com.au revealed in May, and have not given any guarantees to current football boss Daniel McPherson about his position beyond 2026.
As the club weighs its options, it should be sensing the change afoot at Greater Western Sydney and ask the question of Jason McCartney.
McCartney, who was list manager for the Western Bulldogs in building towards their 2016 breakthrough flag, joined the Giants in 2017 and become football boss in 2019 after the departure of Wayne Campbell.
He has been linked to being a future CEO of the club but took himself out of the running to replace longstanding Giants boss Dave Matthews as a contender for the role.
As AFL.com.au revealed on Friday, former Giants executive, AFL staffer and current Stadiums Tasmania CEO James Avery has become Matthews' successor as GWS chief executive.
There are winds of change at GWS, which has seen Tim Reed take over as president ahead of 2024, Matthews departing after 15 years and captain Toby Greene strongly considering quitting the Giants to join Geelong as a free agent.
Whether McCartney would have any interest is unclear but Essendon should be surveying the field for football bosses and finding more new IP.
FOOTY'S 'UPSIDE DOWN'
WHILE we're on the subject of the Giants ... Engie Stadium is football's Upside Down.
Forget Stranger Things, these are Giant Things. Forget the demogorgons, this place creates the wild and whacky too often to be a fluke.
The latest chapter of odd happenings at this ground was Saturday evening's comeback from the Giants, seeing the Cats' 39-point lead run down by GWS. It was a bruising game that saw the Cats have two players – Jeremy Cameron and Tanner Bruhn – end up in hospital and champion Patrick Dangerfield shanking kicks that ended up working out for Geelong.
This ground (or is it just GWS?) produces the bizarre. Only a few weeks ago, it was the Giants' thrashing of Brisbane out of nowhere, where GWS steamrolled the two-time reigning premiers to produce a record-breaking third quarter.
Then there was the semi-final clash between the same teams in 2024 when it was the Lions who overturned a massive deficit to claim a miracle win on their way to the flag.
Adam Kingsley's side has now won two games in a row and have collected back-to-back scalps in Fremantle and Geelong. They haven't won more than two consecutive games this year yet, but next week's clash with Essendon should see them take another step towards a wildcard appearance.
And if they manage to land a knockout final at their Showgrounds home, anything is possible.
SUCCESSION SUCCESS
THE DISCUSSION last year was that the succession plan at Port Adelaide didn't work because the Power missed finals for the second time in six years as Ken Hinkley departed his post amid a horror injury run.
But the performances of Port this season – and again their brave defeat to St Kilda on Sunday as injuries again mount – should reflect a coaching handover that got the desired result.
Josh Carr is undoubtedly better for spending last year alongside Hinkley. While he wasn't coach, Carr was still in a position to hone his craft, work with his midfielders, be hands on in list management meetings, target new assistant coaches and approach recruits, with Corey Durdin being one of the best bargain buys of the year.
Making it official early in the year last season locked in Carr but also made clear what was coming and Hinkley was able to share the load whilst passing on more responsibilities for the longer-term. Carr took over with eyes wide open.
Port didn't win on Saturday but its second half, with a swathe of injuries to Zak Butters (ankle), Mitch Georgiades (concussion), Jack Lukosius (calf) and Lachie Jones (ribs), was a strong performance and saw them nearly pip the Saints.
In some ways it was the story of their season in getting close without getting close enough, but Carr has quickly developed a defensive profile for his side that has carried through the year.
ONE MORE THING …
CREDIT to Jed Walter for sticking with the Suns.
AFL.com.au revealed on Sunday the in-demand tall forward is poised to sign a three-year extension at Gold Coast, where he sees the vision and wants to be a part of it.
The Suns' current malaise didn't shake that view when he could have tried to get to one of the big Victorian clubs that have been chasing his signature. In Damien Hardwick's toughest stint at the Suns, Walter's impending recommitment is a big tick for the club.