THE WINDS of winter are here.

As the temperature drops, the pressure on the field is rising as September looms large, and history says one of the first casualties will be goalkicking.

A Champion Data analysis of accuracy in front of goal during every round from 2013-2023 reveals that round 17 – this weekend – is the least-accurate slate of matches.

Accuracy rates generally follow overall scoring patterns, with the early rounds of the season delivering higher scores and goalkicking accuracy, before falling away in the middle of the year and then rising again ahead of finals. Round 23, which has often been the final round of the home and away campaign, is the best round for goalkicking.

Accuracy during the five-round stretch from round 13-17 is, on average, significantly worse than the rest of the season and the dip in round 17 is three times worse than any other round.

And 2023 is following a similar trend. The dive in accuracy began a little later this year – not until round 15 – but it's well and truly here, and it's being driven by the past two reigning premiers Geelong and Melbourne.

The Cats were the most accurate team in the competition from rounds 1-14, going at 53.7 per cent, but they've dived by more than 16 percentage points to 37.5 per cent to rank 16th in the AFL from R15-16.

The Demons have fared even worse, dropping by 24.3 percentage points from 51.4 per cent (ranked third from R1-14) to a League-worst 27 per cent in the past two weeks. Both games have been played in wet conditions, against the Cats in Geelong and Giants in Alice Springs, with the winter conditions no doubt contributing to the declining accuracy at this time of year. 

It's not doom and gloom across the board in that time, though. The Western Bulldogs, Carlton, West Coast and Greater Western Sydney have all improved by at least 10 per cent from R15-16.

Collingwood and North Melbourne – at opposite ends of the ladder but ranked second and third in the AFL for accuracy – are the only teams to have stayed above 50 per cent across both timeframes.

Despite the Cats' recent dive, they remain the AFL's most accurate side in front of goal with a season accuracy rate of 51.8 per cent. Carlton (43.4 per cent) and Hawthorn (43.5 per cent) bring up the rear.

The average accuracy rate in 2023 across all clubs – including complete misses – is 47.7 per cent.

The Cats lead the way this year but they're a long way off the most accurate team since 2002. Ross Lyon's St Kilda side of 2004 shot the lights out at 61.6 per cent, with Fraser Gehrig (103 goals, 39 behinds), Nick Riewoldt (67.32), Stephen Milne (46.22) and Brent Guerra (29.5) leading the charge.

North Melbourne's surprising efficiency has been driven by Nick Larkey and Jaidyn Stephenson, who are both in the top five sharpshooters this year with a minimum of 30 shots at goal.

Fremantle pair Jye Amiss and Michael Walters also feature, but all four trail Sydney's Logan McDonald's outstanding conversion rate of 73.3 per cent, which has delivered 22 goals, seven behinds to date.

At the other end of the scale, it's three of the most exciting players in the League – Isaac Heeney (34.9 per cent), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (34.5 per cent) and Christian Petracca (26.1 per cent) – which suggests the degree of difficulty of attempted shots could play a large role in these rankings.

Historically, there are some familiar – and unsurprising – names atop the list of of the most accurate goalkickers since 2002.

Using a minimum of 300 shots, Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd is No.1 with 63.1 per cent, well clear of Hawthorn veteran Luke Breust (61.3 per cent) and triple premiership Lion and Swan Daniel Bradshaw (61.2 per cent).

Richmond and Port Adelaide spearhead Jay Schulz (61.2 per cent) and Gehrig (60.6 per cent) round out the top five.

Historically, it's the explosive forward-mids who find it hardest to hit the target. Petracca (40.7 per cent), GWS and Essendon's Devon Smith (36.8 per cent) and Port Adelaide and Fremantle speedster Danyle Pearce (35.8 per cent) are the bottom three who have taken at least 300 shots at goal.

And who's leading the way at your club this season? Check out the table below.

* min. 30 shots