AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey looks back on Lachie Neale's year in the headlines, explains why North Melbourne should target Adam Kingsley and more in Cal-culations

LIFE AFTER LACHIE PREPARATIONS BEGIN EARLY FOR LIONS

LACHIE Neale's year as the human headline has reached its peak conclusion.

Neale's suspension for the Grand Final by the Match Review Officer for a gut punch to Jack Ginnivan in Saturday's preliminary final will, on the grounds of previous appeals this year, be very difficult to overturn.

The AFL's Greg Swann introduced a crackdown on the gut punches for this season and although the Lions are certain to take the move to the AFL Tribunal, players this year have not been able or willing to overturn their intentional body striking charges so far this year.

Perhaps the only loophole Brisbane will argue is the precedent set by Collingwood earlier this year, when Scott Pendlebury's one-game rough conduct ban was downgraded to a fine because of his exemplary record of (to that point) 427 games without a suspension.

Neale has played 320 games and this would be his first suspension in what would have been his final game at the Lions.

It is the most remarkable twist in a year-long story full of headlines for Neale, which began on January 1 this year when he stepped down as Brisbane co-captain after his marriage breakdown and apologised to his family.

Immediately, his future at Brisbane was cast into doubt as his family moved back to Perth. His coach Chris Fagan quickly said the Lions would understand if he had to change clubs at the end of the season due to his family situation. The storyline transcended football media to become a daily tabloid saga.

But Neale's form didn't waver. In fact, he was Brisbane's best player in the first half of its year, and as other midfielders struggled for the Lions, he lifted. By then, he had already spoken with Fremantle, West Coast, Collingwood and Essendon, with a future away from Brisbane locked in.

As he has narrowed his decision, Neale did further scoping out of his future home, touring the Magpies and getting a medical at the club a day before Brisbane's loss to Carlton in Melbourne. But well before that he had told people close to him that Collingwood, which had a three-year deal close to a million dollars a season on the table, was where he would be in 2027.

It became a reality for the Lions. And now they must confront that reality without Neale one game earlier than they would have hoped.

If the Lions are unable to downgrade the charge, their selection headache on how to get Noah Answerth into the team may instead become; what is the right Neale replacement?

Chris Fagan was set for sleepless nights this week on who to drop for Answerth, who is shaping to return from an ankle injury.

Fagan is a reluctant dropper – he doesn't mess with winning teams and would rather shuffle his deckchairs than change one over. But after Nick Watson's heroics and the upcoming battle against Freo's fleet of small forwards – Shai Bolton, Murphy Reid and Isaiah Dudley among them –  he will have to strongly consider bringing Answerth in if he is ready.

It was Ty Gallop who was dropped for the qualifying final for Hugh McCluggage a fortnight ago, but he returned for the semi-final and has had a good two weeks, with recruit Oscar Allen the other possibility if the Lions were to make the change and Neale was available.

But Neale's suspension could see the Lions move Answerth in and switch around the magnets without other changes. Dan Annable and Bruce Reville are next in line and Linc McCarthy and Keidean Coleman are also waiting in the wings.

Last year, Neale was the Grand Final week story as he fought back from a calf injury in record time, was picked as the Lions' substitute and played a starring role in the second half win over the Cats. Again, he is front and centre in the final week of September. 

IT BLEEDS, BUT CAN THEY KILL IT?

'IF IT bleeds, we can kill it.'

To stop history repeating and Brisbane claiming a three-peat of premierships for the second time this century, Fremantle must invoke the line that started it all.

Leigh Matthews' famous message to his players, taken from the movie Predator, ahead of their mid-season clash with Essendon in 2001 was the turning point for the Lions that year, as they faced the previously invincible Bombers. They won that day and didn't lose again for the season, winning 16 games in a row to clinch the first of three straight flags.

In many ways, it was the start of where the Lions are now, back on the brink of three consecutive flags ahead of this week's Grand Final against the Dockers and staring down history.

Brisbane might look unkillable, but there have been many times this year where chinks have emerged. In round 11 against Greater Western Sydney where they were smashed by 78 points. In round 12 against Freo when the Dockers got it done at the Gabba. In round 21 against Carlton and even against Sydney in the qualifying final.

So the Lions have bled, and even on Saturday night the Hawks found ways through the Brisbane masterplan at stages.

But Fremantle has also delivered this year when under the pump. Champion Data shows that no team since 2000 has won more games in a season when trailing at half-time than the Dockers.

Their preliminary final comeback against the Swans was the eighth time this year the Dockers have won when they were behind at half-time.

And it was largely on the back of Hayden Young's brilliant clutch goal on the boundary line before three-quarter time that changed the game and will live in Fremantle folklore.

After that point at the 31-minute mark of the third term through to the final siren, the Dockers had total dominance – 51 contested possessions to 27, 13 clearances to five, 25 inside 50s to six, 14 shots at goal to one.

But they will need to lift significantly to challenge the back-to-back reigning premiers on Saturday, with Fremantle winning just three of 12 quarters so far this finals series, and they are yet to win a second or third term.

A concern for them is the form of spearhead Josh Treacy, who was the equal lowest-rated player on the ground on Friday night against the Swans with a Player Ratings score of -0.3. It was his lowest-rated game of the year and the fourth lowest rated of his career.

Across his three finals so far the Dockers forward has tallied 23 disposals, nine marks and two goals. He split the points with Connor O'Sullivan in the semi-final with the Cats, but Josh Battle and Tom McCartin got the honours either side of that game in their individual match-ups.

Treacy has taken one mark inside 50 in three finals, and lost six of 14 offensive one on one contests in finals. That equates to 43 per cent. He lost 23 of 87 one on one contests in the home and away season (26 per cent).

If Fremantle is to make Brisbane bleed at all, Justin Longmuir will need one of his biggest assets at his best.

THE GAME THAT HAD IT ALL

IT WAS the greatest game in 25 years.

With respect to everything in between, Saturday night's preliminary final between Hawthorn and Brisbane was the best game since round 16, 2001, when Essendon completed the biggest comeback in football history against North Melbourne.

That afternoon at the MCG is widely seen as one of the best games ever, with 52 goals scored and 330 points tallied as the Bombers returned from 69 points down to win.

Twenty-five years later, a challenger has come in the form of a preliminary final that had it all.

It was a shootout of epic proportions with the hugest of stakes. Every goal meant something and every minute provided action. Every stoppage was an opportunity for the next passage of brilliance.

It started with Jai Newcombe flattening Lachie Neale at the first bounce. It ended with Hawthorn flattened by two correct umpiring calls that went Brisbane's way in the final minute to secure a fourth straight Grand Final appearance.

In between, there was everything. There was 'The Wizard' – after this season and that six-goal performance the Hawks small forward superstar has outgrown his actual name. He's pure moniker now.

There was Mitch Lewis, who again stood up in a big final. There was Massimo D'Ambrosio, a stirring Josh Ward effort and another five finals goals for Jack Gunston.

Then there was Will Ashcroft – again a champion in September and chasing a third Norm Smith Medal next week – and there was Josh Dunkley's stopping job on Will Day.

There was Kai Lohmann, who turned the game in the third quarter, and there was Hugh McCluggage, who won it in the fourth.

Lohmann, like the Wizard, is a certified finals star now. Champion Data shows he is averaging 18.4 scoreboard impact points a game over the past three finals series, marginally behind Watson's 20.7.

There were lead changes, momentum swings, comebacks, controversy and goals, goals and more goals, all dispersed between drama, despair and delight across a marathon that had Brisbane ahead when it mattered.

From start to finish – from Wizard's toe-poke goal to kick things off through to Lohmann's classy after-the-siren sealer – this was the preliminary final that delivered and will be remembered.

Hawthorn is only going to get better, with Ben King to join and Zach Merrett also desperate to land at the Hawks on a four-year deal worth $1 million a season, as revealed by AFL.com.au at the start of September, but the bitter taste of what could have been – and what nearly was – will linger for Sam Mitchell, who has built a team that knows how to play finals football.  

FAGAN'S HUGE SELECTION HEADACHE

IT IS the selection call that will give Chris Fagan sleepless nights this week.

Hawthorn found a weakness in Brisbane's backline that the Dockers can expose again this week.

Without Noah Answerth, who shut down the Wizard in their late season clash, the Hawks' young champ had a night out in the prelim. He caused panic – first for Ryan Lester and then Darcy Wilmot, with neither able to find the answer to stop his magic.

The dynamic small forward who can jump, who is quick, who is dangerous in the air and at ground level poses a challenge for the Lions. And Answerth is their best answer.

But after missing the semi and preliminary finals with an ankle injury, Answerth is in the mix for a Grand Final return after missing last year's flag win through injury.

Fagan is a reluctant dropper – he doesn't mess with winning teams and would rather shuffle his deckchairs than change one over. But after the Wizard's heroics and the upcoming battle against Freo's fleet of small forwards – Shai Bolton, Murphy Reid and Isaiah Dudley among them – then he will have to strongly consider bringing Answerth in if he is ready.

It was Ty Gallop who was dropped for the qualifying final for Hugh McCluggage a fortnight ago, but he returned for the semi-final and has had a good two weeks, with recruit Oscar Allen the other possibility if the Lions make the change.

DOCKERS' AGITATORS GAVE FREO WHAT IT WAS MISSING

IN PAT Voss and Mason Cox, Fremantle has two of the biggest agitators in the game.

But their outward, in-your-face personalities has had a large effect on a Dockers group that was relatively young and insular before the pair hit their groove together at the club.

Voss arrived from Essendon with his career hanging by a thread, given an AFL lifeline via the pre-season supplemental selection period at the end of 2023. Two years later Cox joined via the same mechanism after being unwanted by every other club.

His two-year deal at the Dockers was worth base rates. But together the pair have added an exuberance, a cockiness, a brashness that the otherwise understated Dockers needed to come out of their shells.

This was part of the recruiting plans from list boss David Walls and recruiting manager David McMullin, who saw how both could fill roles and potentially add to the Dockers' dynamic.

That dynamic was on show from both in the final quarter comeback against the Swans, as Cox took a strong mark and kicked a steady but important goal in their roll, while Voss' fend off of Dane Rampe and checkside goal took the kind of confidence few possess after previously being quiet across the night.

The Dockers' list has been perfectly assembled, bit by bit, for this Grand Final moment over many years, with the rise of this Fremantle side tracing back to the off-season of 2019, when Justin Longmuir was appointed coach and Hayden Young and Caleb Serong joined as top-10 picks.

Since then, each off-season has seen critical list pieces added. It is another example of the time required to see through a build – and why the finishing touches can be just as important as the foundations.

WHY KANGAS SHOULD MAKE A 'KINGAS' PLAY

WE LIVE in a landscape where every contracted player is deemed approachable but rival coaches are viewed as off-limits.

North Melbourne should be attempting the coach smash-and-grab.

As the Roos start to fire up their coaching search to replace Alastair Clarkson, Adam Kingsley's Giants are embarking on a list reset.

And while all the signs have the Roos pointing towards a first-time appointment, why wouldn't they make a bold play to snatch a rival coach who clearly knows what he is doing, has shown he can take teams into September and has recent runs on the board?

The Giants are making the right call to take the chance now to refresh their group, and this column in July was in favour of a mini-rebuild happening at the end of 2026.

It was clear then that the club was considering such a move and since then Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer, Kieren Briggs and Toby Greene have departed. That's more than 800 games of experience out the door, and Lachie Whitfield is up for trade at the right price as well.

This Giants list wasn't taking them to the summit and hasn’t not won a final since 2023, so the change of tact is required. They have enough mid-20s players to withstand that and they draft well, but the experience going out means they will have to take a step or two back to eventually go forward.

Kingsley will have been central to these list decisions but would know it makes his ambitions of winning a premiership in the next couple of years all the harder. Greene's exit, symbolically, said that the now former Giants captain wasn't sure his now former team was set to win a flag in the next few years.

This list revamp will add more change to GWS as a club. It has a relatively new president in Tim Reed. New CEO James Avery will start in November officially, replacing the longstanding Dave Matthews, who revealed Greene's – the greatest ever Giant and the face of the club – decision in a radio interview on Thursday morning. Football boss Jason McCartney has had interest from rivals over recent years as well.

They will have a new captain next year and that, too, will tell a story, with Tom Green and Connor Idun the breakout contenders to take on the role. But will Green get it if he hasn't signed on at the club by early next year amid Tasmania's enormous (and we're talking enormous) offer for him?

The coaching market doesn't see the same aggressive pursuits of contracted rivals as that of the players, and Kingsley is committed at the Giants for the next two seasons having already had four seasons there and taken them to three finals series in that time.

But North should at least be asking the question to see if their list – on the way up and about to fill some more holes during the trade period whilst also holding a prized top-five pick (which they'll hope is their last in that bracket for many years) – as well as a long-term deal would turn Kingsley's head. 

HARDWICK'S CLEAR KING VIEW

OUR best and fairest 'weird watch' continues. After Aliir Aliir, who made the All-Australian squad, finished eighth in the Power best and fairest, another odd result came on Saturday night at the Gold Coast count.

Ben King didn't make the Suns' top 10 players of their season, according to the Suns.

The outgoing free agent, who will join Hawthorn next month, kicked 60 goals and came third in the Coleman Medal tally this year. But he was deemed not to be in Gold Coast’s best 10 players this season under its best and fairest voting. He played every game.

It isn't the first time that Suns coach Damien Hardwick has shown via the voting that he isn't a King superfan.  

Last year, King kicked a career-best 71 goals and came second in the Coleman Medal but 10th in the Suns’ best and fairest. The year before, in Hardwick's first season at Gold Coast, King booted 55 goals and didn't feature in the Suns' top 10 best and fairest count.

So in three years at Gold Coast, Hardwick and the Suns coaches have had King as a top 10 player at the club just once – when he was ranked 10th. In that time he has kicked 186 goals, second to only Jeremy Cameron (193 goals) in the AFL. The next most for Gold Coast in the three-year window is Ben Long with 99 goals.

Best and fairests are not the domain of key forwards – even remarkably Matthew Lloyd, one of Essendon's top five ever players, never claimed a club best and fairest when he should have had multiple – but King's rating across the three years of voting said plenty.

King will join Hawthorn on a seven-year deal worth more than $9 million.

AND FOR THE RECORD…

FOR the final edition Cal-culations of season 2026, here are our extremely bold tips for the week ahead:

Nick Daicos to poll 39 votes and win the Brownlow Medal.

Brisbane to win the premiership.

Will Ashcroft to be the Norm Smith Medallist.