AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at Melbourne's surge towards September, the big changes coming at Essendon and more in Cal-culations
HOW FAR CAN THE DEES GO?
THE RACE for the top four has five teams contending for two spots. Four of those – Hawthorn, Brisbane, Adelaide and Geelong – would have been in everyone's view as challengers at the start of this season.
If you had Melbourne as the other, then fill us in on this week's lotto numbers, please.
The Demons are the feel-good story of the year. But Melbourne showed on Saturday in its win over Fremantle in an epic contest, that feel-good isn't going to cut it for its campaign. The Demons are a serious side.
Whether Steven King's men are capable of putting together a run of finals performances that put them in stead with the battle-hardened teams at the top of the ladder is another question, but they have set themselves up for at least one home final at their MCG fortress.
The Demons should beat the depleted Port Adelaide next week at Adelaide Oval and then will be favourites to topple the Western Bulldogs in the final round at the MCG in a game that could land them a top-four berth.
King took over a club last September that had been dominated by drama for three years. Those off-field concerns have lingered this year, but this time they have not been debilitating.
By the time King arrived as coach, the wheels were already in motion for Melbourne to trade club greats Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver and start afresh. But more than that, King landed at Melbourne with absolute confidence and conviction in his plan.
It was one of the main reasons the Demons' coaching selection panel fell in love with his plan – he wanted to do it his way and not just be a carbon copy of Geelong, where he had honed his skills as a senior assistant coach.
Melbourne has gone from hard to watch to one of the competition's most scintillating sides and Saturday's brilliant win over the league-leading Dockers was the game of the year.
They have found recruits to suit their game style; Harry Sharp is one of the revelations of the season as Melbourne's Ollie Dempsey-style runner, Joel Fitzgerald has come in as a mid-season pick and immediately looked comfortable, Jack Steele has added experience and had one of his best season in years and the development of Jacob van Rooyen and Matt Jefferson benefited from the presence of Brody Mihocek before his serious neck injury.
The rest of this year might be a free hit for Melbourne – Matthew Lloyd described it as playing with "house money" on Channel Nine on Sunday – but it will be no finals rollover, particularly at the MCG, where it has won 10 of 11 games this season.
Having conquered feel-good, as well as Fremantle, Brisbane and Hawthorn (twice), the Dees will head into September thinking anything is possible.
WHY HARLEY IS A SKIPPER IN WAITING
HARLEY Reid has been West Coast's best player since he arrived at the Eagles. His maturation this year should see him claim his first best and fairest in a landslide and he sat 18th in the AFL for coaches' votes heading into this round.
He has also proven he is a future captain of West Coast. That might sound premature, but he is clearly the Eagles' spiritual leader and their best player. An official leadership position is not far away.
Reid wasn't at his best on Sunday after copping a big corked thigh early in the clash against Collingwood, with Ed Allan also keeping close attention to the Eagles star throughout the contest. He battled on as best he could in the second half and continued to put his body on the line and physically impose himself on the game.
It is easy to forget Reid is 21 years old given his wide appeal and the hype he entered the competition with. But he has lived up to that and his evolution this season has been in being a more senior figure for the group of new Eagles, including playing a big brother role for their newest No.1 pick, Willem Duursma.
That was on show last week when an emotional Duursma couldn't hold back the tears after another defeat for the Eagles against Richmond. It was Reid who was there with the consolation hug. If the Eagles are to get through their rebuild, it will be on Reid's shoulders.
Earlier this season, Reid told AFL.com.au in his only long-form interview since joining the Eagles that it was this part of his growing leadership he had enjoyed; he had found value in seeing others develop whilst being seen as a leader for that group. He knew he still needed leadership from those above him, but he also knew his role was to provide it as well.
Giving Reid the captaincy too early would be a risk, given he is still not the finished product and it could bring extra pressure. And the Eagles will want him committed past 2028 as well, which took some work the first time around before he penned a lucrative two-year extension.
But it is clear Reid, like Reuben Ginbey, is a leader-in-waiting. When he speaks, his teammates listen and he is the player who they follow on the field.
Harley the captain? Just wait.
BEVO'S MIDDLE OF THE ROAD DOGS
AT THIS stage of a season, the ladder does not lie. The Western Bulldogs are ninth and smack bang a middle of the road team.
The Bulldogs haven't been a threat since Sam Darcy went down with his knee injury in round seven and that hasn't shifted. Since their 4-0 start to the season, they have won eight of 17 games, with clashes against Carlton and Melbourne to finish their season.
After their run to the 2021 Grand Final, which came from fifth on the ladder, the Bulldogs have lost two elimination finals and not made the finals in the other two seasons. Though they should make the wildcard rounds from here, their run without a finals win could well extend to five years.
The reliance on Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards in the midfield, with ruckman Tim English, as well as Aaron Naughton in attack has seen that group produce some dominant games to lift their team on their backs at different stages this season.
But Thursday night's loss to North Melbourne was a stark reminder that the Dogs don't carry the depth nor have the weapons to compete consistently as other challengers do. That might even have been the case with Darcy, but certainly his absence with his knee reconstruction all but put a line through their flag hopes before the end of April.
The numbers have been alarming for some time. This year, only Essendon, Richmond and North rank lower for time in forward half differential. Champion Data shows the Dogs were No.1 in this last year. They were also the top team for scoring from clearances last year, but have dropped to 12th this year in that stat and 14th from centre ball-ups.
And again Beveridge's decision to not use a tagger saw a key midfielder run hot on Thursday night. Joel Freijah and Bontempelli were matched up against Luke Davies-Uniacke, but that was largely around stoppages, giving the Roos star free rein to be one of the most damaging players in the match.
Making the task harder for the Dogs is English's knee injury, which will see him unlikely to play again this year unless the Dogs get through the early parts of the finals fixture.
For a year that promised so much at the early stages, the Bulldogs are about where they have been for five seasons – able to occasionally match it with the best, usually capable of beating the teams below them and landing somewhere in the middle zone.
ROWELL WOWS
WHAT a difference a Matt Rowell makes.
Rowell almost single-handedly snapped Gold Coast's 10-game losing streak on Sunday, with his performance against Greater Western Sydney one of the best individual showings of the season.
Last year's Brownlow medallist had 40 disposals, 17 clearances (eight out of the centre), 16 tackles, 22 contested possessions, 10 inside-50s and more than 880 metres gained in a superhuman effort in the Canberra slog. More like Matt Wow.
This was Rowell at his absolute best – something that hasn't been on show this season after a finger injury in the Origin game delayed his start to the season and then he played a number of weeks carrying a syndesmosis ankle injury.
It was a major relief for the Suns and coach Damien Hardwick after a horror stretch of losses that had seen them drop from premiership favourites to missing the top 10.
But their gritty win over the Giants was reward for a better month, which included strong performances against Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs, Carlton and Melbourne without landing a breakthrough win.
The debrief on the Suns' collapse at the end of this season will be thorough but Sunday's effort, albeit against a middling Giants side, was another reminder of Gold Coast's missed opportunity this season.
JUDGEMENT DAY COMING FOR CATS
IT SHAPES as a huge week on many fronts. Essendon is anticipated to name its new coach as soon as this week, Josh Fraser is expected to officially put his hand up for Carlton's full-time coaching role and Geelong will reply to the AFL's 'please explain' for its secret concussion contract waiver.
The Cats case is moving at speed.
On Thursday night, the AFL and AFL Players Association's joint statement said the League was "satisfied" the Cats' letter with Jake Kolodjashnij waiving his legal rights to play on despite concussion risks "was not used to allow a medically unfit player to return to play".
On Friday, the door the AFL had left ajar for further inquiry was opened wide with a please explain sent to the Cats hierarchy, as Geelong chief executive Steve Hocking took ownership and responsibility for the letter.
By Saturday, AFL Commission chairman – and former Cats president – Craig Drummond apologised and had stepped out of the League's dealings and findings on the Kolodjashnij case, with the Cats expected to return their answers to the AFL in the next few days.
AFL boss Andrew Dillon, over four separate radio interviews that followed Drummond's second statement, made clear the League's disappointment but stopped short of looking at what sort of penalties could be headed the Cats' way.
The AFL's investigation into Carlton's handling of the Elijah Hollands episode earlier this year took three weeks to finalise before the Blues were hit with a $75,000 fine. But the League will not want this Cats saga hanging over the finals series, particularly as the club at the centre of the controversy vies for another flag tilt.
BOMBERS' FOOTBALL BOSS CHANGE
ESSENDON list manager Matt Rosa has been mooted for an elevated role at the Bombers next year as the club looks to split its football manager vacancy.
AFL.com.au reported in May that the club was considering splitting its head of football role and that Dan McPherson's future was uncertain, with McPherson recently resigning from his position.
It is believed the Bombers are forging ahead with plans to break up their football manager position into two roles as they restructure their football program, with a new coach set to be appointed as soon as this coming week.
Richmond has Tim Livingstone and Blair Hartley split duties as the Tigers' heads of football. West Coast and Melbourne ran with similar models this year with executive heads of football and a football manager below them, although that will change at the Demons with Alan Richardson to depart the club at the end of this season.
Rosa, who has been Essendon's list manager for the past three years, has long been linked as a future football boss at the club, having managed the VFL program when he first arrived. He previously was the football manager at Peel Thunder following his playing career with West Coast and Gold Coast.
McPherson spent four years at the Bombers and will depart at the end of their season in a fortnight.
DON'T BE SHY ON KAI
EARLY in Brisbane's Friday night walloping of Hawthorn, you could tell Kai Lohmann was on his game. He was tackling, pressuring and in everything. Then the goals started to come.
Lohmann finished with an equal career-best five goals in the win over the Hawks, but it was clearly a career-best game for the Lions forward, gathering a new high 24 disposals. He was ranked the No.1 player on the ground by the AFL Player Ratings.
It has snuck under the radar, but Lohmann is having a very, very good year. He is now up to 46 goals, with only Hawthorn superstar Nick Watson booting more as a small forward (Watson didn't add to his tally of 52 on Friday).
He has kicked 25 goals over the past eight games for the Lions – a very healthy return for a half-forward – and been central to their run of form back into flag contention.
The 23-year-old is eighth in the Coleman Medal race, making for two Lions – alongside Logan Morris with 51 goals – to be in the top contenders as the game's best goalkickers.
Both Lohmann and Morris are among the many draft hits from Lions recruiting boss Steve Conole which continue to show Brisbane isn't going anywhere as a flag threat.