SUMMARY
It's still early in the season, but it's already desperation stakes in this battle of the big cats. Richmond has split its first two matches but is coming off a disappointing loss to the Western Bulldogs, while the Lions have been soundly outplayed in both of their contests, particularly the last-start hiding from North Melbourne. Brett Deledio is racing the clock to return from a calf injury for the Tigers and would be a huge boost, while the injury toll is starting to mount for the Lions following the season-ending ACL injury for young forward Michael Close. Richmond has owned this contest over the past decade and will start warm favourites again here.
WHERE AND WHEN: Gabba, Saturday, April 18, 7.20pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R16, 2014, Richmond 12.7 (79) d Brisbane Lions 7.12 (54) at the MCG
R5, 2014, Richmond 15.16 (106) d Brisbane Lions 9.9 (63) at the Gabba
R20, 2013, Richmond 14.13 (97) d Brisbane Lions 11.8 (74) at the MCG
R19, 2012, Richmond 20.12 (132) d Brisbane Lions 12.12 (84) at the Gabba
R13, 2011, Richmond 18.17 (125) d Brisbane Lions 14.10 (94) at the Gabba
THE SIX POINTS
1. Richmond easily accounted for the Lions in both 2014 contests. In round five they won every statistically category with ease on the way to a 43-point win, and despite having equal scoring shots in round 16, dominated the disposal count 438-376.
2. There was a statistical anomaly in the Tigers' round two loss to the Western Bulldogs. The won the disposals 403-326, marks 113-83, free kicks 30-13 and inside 50s 54-48, along with a heap of other stats, but still rarely looked like winning.
3. Richmond has dominated this match-up, winning 24 of 42 games, with one draw. It has won the past seven matches in succession over the Lions.
4. It wasn’t pretty for the Lions against North Melbourne last weekend, losing every major statistical category. They lost disposals 401-305, marks 91-78 and inside 50s 58-45 in the 82-point loss.
5. The Tigers have their time at the Gabba, holding a 9-8 head-to-head advantage, including the past six. The Lions have not beaten the Tigers there in more than a decade.
6. Alex Rance just gets better and better. After his 28 disposals and 13 marks against the Bulldogs, the Tigers' key defender jumped to a career-high 66th in the Official AFL Player Ratings. He is fourth amongst key defenders, and closing quickly on Josh Gibson, Harry Taylor and Michael Johnson.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Dayne Zorko. The Lions' vice-captain gave his teammates a real serve after last week's 82-point loss against North Melbourne, saying they couldn't follow instructions and weren't playing like a team. He is likely to captain against the Tigers in the absence of Tom Rockliff, and after his own poor display against the Kangaroos, will be desperate to lead by example.
PREDICTION: Richmond by 17 points
