TWO YEARS ago Tom Mitchell made the move from the Swans and in his time at the Hawks has scored more Fantasy points than anyone else. This time last year, Devon Smith moved to the Bombers and finished his first year in the red-and-black as the top scoring Fantasy forward.
Who will benefit from a change in colours in 2019?
The NAB AFL Trade Period wrapped up on Wednesday night with 44 players finding new homes. The Eagles’ Grand Final win may have been less than three weeks ago, but Fantasy coaches are always on the lookout for potential picks for the upcoming season.
Here are the top dozen deals that have Fantasy relevance in 2019.
No.1 – DAYNE BEAMS (TRADED TO COLLINGWOOD)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 105.8 (21 games)
The final deal was the biggest of all, with the former Lions captain returning to the club where he started his AFL career. Beams has been a Fantasy star throughout his 10-year career, averaging more than 100 points in his 156 home and away games.
Beams’ best season was his fourth at the Pies in 2012, playing 21 matches and returning 116.4 points per game. What was incredible about that season is that he started with scores of 74, 93 and 85 to go on and score 110 or more points in all but three games for the remainder of the season.
Collingwood was the highest scoring Fantasy team in 2018. Adam Trelaor (108.5), Steele Sidebottom (103.4) and Scott Pendlebury (101.7) all had no trouble sharing the points around and Beams should slot right in without being the main man.
VERDICT: Hits the scoreboard as well as racks up high disposal counts. A first-round Draft selection.
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No.2 – LACHIE NEALE (TRADED TO BRISBANE)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 100.2 (22 games)
Neale is as consistent as they come. Highly durable, missing just two games in the last five seasons, you know what you’re going to get from the former Docker. In Neale’s last four seasons, he’s returned averages of 101.4, 111.1, 100.2 and 100.2.
Although he has consistency, Neale hasn’t shown the ceiling we look for in some premium midfielders. The 25-year-old has led the League for contested possessions since 2016 and ranks second for disposals to the No.1 Fantasy player of the last two seasons, Tom Mitchell.
Neale averaged 30 disposals this year with 11.4 kicks and 18.9 handballs. If his game can swing back in the favour of kicking over handballing, which could be an option at the Lions who rank second in the League for average marks and play a higher possession game than Fremantle, Neale could see a spike in his scoring.
VERDICT: Could improve output as a Lion. Does Zorko still attract the tag that he has shown he’s susceptible to?
No.3 – DYLAN SHIEL (TRADED TO ESSENDON)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 89.1 (21 games)
Shiel will offer some value to start the 2019 Fantasy season after averaging 89, going at more than 90 four times in his seven-year career with a personal-best return of 98. The 25-year-old has proven himself to be a durable player, playing all but two matches in the last three seasons.
The big Fantasy winner of the Shiel move to the Bombers appears to be Zach Merrett. Due to concussion and a slow start to the season, Merrett will be under-priced next year and Shiel’s arrival will mean less attention for the ball-magnet.
VERDICT: Bump Shiel up the Draft order for his increased output and lock in Merrett.
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No.4 – WILL SETTERFIELD (TRADED TO CARLTON)
POSITION: MID/FWD
2018 AVERAGE: DNP
Setterfield has played just two AFL games for the Giants, but will be among one of the first picked in Fantasy Classic next season. Prior to the JLT Community Series, he ruptured his ACL in a practice match against the Swans. It is reported that he will be in full training after Christmas and ready to go for round one.
If he retains MID/FWD status from this season, then Setterfield will be a bargain if he can take his NEAFL form – where he averaged 110 from seven matches in 2017 – into his first year as a Blue.
VERDICT: Should walk into Carlton’s 22 and be a profitable cash cow.
Setterfield could be a bargain Blue. Picture: AFL Photos
No.5 – DAN HANNEBERY (TRADED TO ST KILDA)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 59.8 (14 games)
Fantasy coaches are always on the lookout for under-priced premiums. Dan Hannebery fits that bill. This year at the Swans he posted his lowest average since his rookie year way back in 2009.
This off the back of averages of 97, 11, 108 and 94 in the preceding four seasons.
The Saints were a high possession team in 2018 and with injury issues of the past behind him, look to Hannebery as a bargain midfield selection that will not only make cash but should score well above his price point.
VERDICT: A full pre-season will make Hannebery a low-risk mid-priced pick.
INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER Your club's picks
No.6 – CHAD WINGARD (TRADED TO HAWTHORN)
POSITION: MID/FWD
2018 AVERAGE: 82.3 (21 games)
Wingard was a Fantasy favourite this year. He was priced well below his potential midway through the season due to a slow start, but a move to the midfield saw his scoring soar. The timing was perfect as the challenging multi-bye rounds commenced with Wingard posting 121 and four tons in the following five rounds.
Holding MID/FWD status, if the Hawks are keen to run him through the midfield, there is plenty of upside that could see at least 10 points added to his average to eclipse his personal best of 92 in 2017.
VERDICT: A strong chance to be among the top scoring available FWDs.
WHO'S LEAVING YOUR CLUB? All the latest retirements and delistings
No.7 – ANTHONY MILES (TRADED TO GOLD COAST)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 78 (one game)
Crying out for opportunity, Miles is a sure thing to add to his games tally at the Suns. He’ll receive a discount on his 2019 Fantasy Classic price based on playing the single game this season. Judging by Miles’ numbers in the VFL, he could be considered a steal if he can replicate those figures at his new club.
Miles averaged 123 for Richmond’s VFL team in 2017 and back in 2015, the last time he played a full season in the AFL, he averaged an impressive 87.7.
VERDICT: A regular midfield role should see him add to the 19 tons scored so far in his 69-game career.
Miles looms as a handy pick-up. Picture: AFL Photos
No.8 – TOM LYNCH (TRADED TO RICHMOND)
POSITION: FWD
2018 AVERAGE: 67.1 (10 games)
A knee injury affected Lynch’s output this year and restricted him to playing 10 games.
The former Gold Coast captain has twice returned a Fantasy average of 80 or more and has up to 20 points of upside based on his best season to date. Lynch will be under-priced in Classic and may be forgotten about in Draft.
VERDICT: Late round sleeper in Fantasy Draft.
No.9 – AARON HALL (TRADED TO NORTH MELBOURNE)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 71.6 (6 games)
In 2016, Aaron Hall averaged 105.2. In that season he was leading the Brownlow count after three straight three-vote games. Unfortunately he was dropped from the side six weeks later.
Clearly the match selection committee weren’t playing Fantasy.
With criticism of the defensive side of his game, a change of environment is needed for Hall. With a fresh start at the Roos, he may return to a high-90s average or even see himself once again be a triple-figure premium midfielder.
VERDICT: Set for an inside midfielder role at North Melbourne. One to watch.
No.10 – JESSE HOGAN (TRADED TO FREMANTLE)
POSITION: FWD
2018 AVERAGE: 82.3 (21 games)
Hogan enjoyed a fantastic season averaging 89 points from 20 games, thanks in part to kicking 49 goals. Hogan scored nine Fantasy tons this year, including six of 110 or more, all of which came from when he booted three or more goals. Will he have the opportunity to kick as many goals at Fremantle over the much more successful Melbourne?
We may see him spend some time further up the ground with Cam McCarthy and new recruit Rory Lobb likely to play inside the forward 50.
VERDICT: One to watch, but has the potential to be one of the better scoring key forwards.
How will Hogan fare as a Docker? Picture: AFL Photos
No.11 – NIC NEWMAN (TRADED TO CARLTON)
POSITION: MID
2018 AVERAGE: 76.1 (10 games)
Newman holds a special place in our hearts as the Fantasy Rookie of the Year in 2017. He added more than $300,000 off the back of his 87 average when he finally broke into the team. A highlight was being a late inclusion, after being omitted, for a score of 135.
The 25-year-old averaged 91, 112, 116 and 131 in his last four NEAFL seasons. If he regains DEF status, Newman will be highly relevant as he is the king of the mark/kick plus six.
VERDICT: Plenty of upside if he has the opportunity to play his natural ball-winning game at the Blues.
No.12 – BRAYDON PREUSS (TRADED TO MELBOURNE)
POSITION: RUC
2018 AVERAGE: DNP
Wait… what?!
While Preuss had some solid Fantasy games last year rucking solo for the Roos, the relevance here isn’t about the 23-year-old ruckman, it’s about Max Gawn.
The Dees must have sold a move to the club that he would be looking at game time. This can only mean Gawn’s Fantasy stocks are dropping. Gawn played all 22 games, predominantly as the No.1 ruckman, to average 111.3. If he is sharing this role with Preuss, we may see a decline in his numbers.
VERDICT: You’re not picking Preuss regardless, but we may have to rethink Gawn’s selection.
THE OTHERS
- Tom Scully (traded to Hawthorn) will be at a very tasty price, but don’t get your hopes up that he’ll be playing in round one. After a horrific ankle injury in round two, Scully is yet to start running after a setback in his recovery.
- Like many players making a move during the NAB AFL Trade Period seeking opportunity, George Horlin-Smith (traded to Gold Coast) may have a chance to play more senior football at the Suns. He posted his highest AFL score (123) when he was a late inclusion in round five, but it’s his VFL averages of 91, 98, 91, 98 and 80 that suggest he’ll be priced cheaper than his potential output. Former Tiger Corey Ellis may be one to watch for similar reasons. VFL averages of 89 and 85 are a positive sign for a player likely to be priced at the bottom end.
- Of the Power-turned-Kangaroos, Jasper Pittard and Jared Polec (traded to North Melbourne), Pittard offers the most value as a defender. Polec’s average of 92 looks solid, however he’d need a lot of things to go right to match that in 2019.
- Jack Scrimshaw (traded to Hawthorn) won’t set the Fantasy world on fire but is likely to be close to basement priced and worth a shot on your bench if in the Hawks’ 22.
There’s plenty to digest from Trade Period. The first player prices and positions are expected to be revealed during December and it will be worth looking at players with new homes as potential bargains for 2019.
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