Franklin (52 goals) sits in third place on the leaderboard behind Roughead (55) and Port Adelaide's Jay Schulz (53), but an analysis of each player's final three match-ups suggest Franklin is in the box seat to win his third Coleman Medal.
The 27-year-old will play his 200th game on Saturday against St Kilda at the SCG and he could jump to the lead by the end of this round.
In 10 games against the Saints Franklin has kicked 27 goals, including five when he last played them in round six, 2012.
He has an even better record against round 22 opponent, the Western Bulldogs, with 33 goals from 11 games including five when he last played them in round 23, 2011.
Best of all, Franklin has kicked 37 goals in 12 games against Richmond, who the Swans face in the final round of the home and away season at ANZ Stadium.
In round 14 Franklin had an entertaining duel with Tigers defender Alex Rance, kicking four of the Swans' nine goals in an 11-point win.
Roughead's tripping ban could cost him the Coleman Medal, with the goalkicker sidelined for Hawthorn's clash against Fremantle at Patersons Stadium on Sunday.
Franklin, who won the Coleman Medal as a Hawk in 2008 and 2011, was installed as a $2.50 favourite by TAB Sportsbet after his former teammate decided not to challenge his ban at the Tribunal on Tuesday.
Geelong key forward Tom Hawkins, who is level with Franklin on 52 goals, is a $4 chance alongside Roughead and Schulz.
He has booted 26 goals in 18 games against the Cats and was held goalless by Harry Taylor the last time the sides met, in round four.
The 27-year-old has booted 29 goals in 14 games against round-23 opponent Collingwood, including three when the sides met in round 14.
Franklin joked on Tuesday that Roughead would be paying close attention to the leaderboard.
"I haven't given it too much though at all, but I think big 'Roughy' has at the Hawks," he said.
"He hasn't stopped talking about the Coleman – he wants back-to-back.
"I think he'll miss this week so hopefully I can catch him."
Hawkins booted just one goal against Fremantle in round 20 but he remains firmly in the mix for the Coleman Medal with matches to come against Carlton, Hawthorn and the Brisbane Lions.
The key Cat has booted 14 goals in nine game against the Blues, 22 goals in 11 games against the Hawks, and 24 goals in nine games against the Lions.
Schulz should not be discounted but his form has dried up in recent weeks - he has kicked five goals in his past four games.
In the next three rounds, Port Adelaide faces Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle, who have all kept Schulz reasonably quiet in past meetings.
Schulz was held goalless for the first time this season by Swans defender Ted Richards in round 20.
| Coleman Medal ladder after rd 20 | Avg goals v r21 opponent | Avg goals v r22 opponent | Avg goals v r23 opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarryd Roughead (Hawthorn): 55 | Fremantle: 2.45/game | Geelong: 1.44/game | Collingwood: 2.07/game |
| Jay Schulz (Port Adelaide): 53 | Gold Coast: 2.66 | Carlton: 1.64 | Fremantle: 1.25 |
| Lance Franklin (Sydney Swans) 52 | St Kilda: 2.70 | W. Bulldogs: 3.00 | Richmond: 3.08 |
| Tom Hawkins (Geelong): 52 | Carlton: 1.55 | Hawthorn: 2.00 | Brisbane Lions: 2.66 |
| Luke Breust (Hawthorn): 49 | Fremantle: 2.00 | Geelong: 1.25 | Collingwood: 2.43 |
| Jack Riewoldt (Richmond): 48 | Adelaide: 1.86 | St Kilda: 3.50 | Sydney Swans: 2.09 |
| Josh Kennedy (West Coast): 46 | Essendon: 1.60 | Melbourne: 2.30 | Gold Coast: 5.30 |
| Jack Gunston (Hawthorn): 44 | Fremantle: 2.33 | Geelong: 1.62 | Collingwood 1.43 |
| Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda): 44 | Sydney Swans: 1.41 | Richmond: 2.65 | Adelaide: 1.58 |
| Hayden Ballantyne (Frem): 42 | Hawthorn: 0.83 | Brisbane Lions: 1.60 | Port Adelaide: 1.17 |
| Eddie Betts (Adelaide): 42 | Richmond: 2.01 | North Melbourne: 1.55 | St Kilda: 1.21 |
