ESSENDON has drifted in the betting ahead of week one of the 2009 Toyota AFL finals series in the wake of three suspensions.
Three of the four matches has two teams relatively even in betting, however TAB Sportsbet’s Gary Davies said the Bombers’ woes with the AFL match review panel had resulted in the eighth-placed Bombers drifting in the market.
Essendon will be without key trio Matthew Lloyd, Paddy Ryder and Sam Lonergan for Friday night’s elimination final with Adelaide after they opted to accept sanctions offered on Tuesday morning.
“We certainly knew Lloyd was [going to be] missing, so we went $1.12 [Adelaide] and $5.75 [Essendon], that was our initial market,” he said.
“Then when we found out that they weren’t going to contest and the other boys would be missing as well, we turned Adelaide into $1.10 and Essendon out to $6.25.”
Despite punters predominately wanting to back Adelaide, Davies said there had been some money for Matthew Knights’ team.
“We’ve got about $4000 invested on Essendon but I would have thought it would be mission impossible [for them to win], to be quite honest,” he said.
“And the amazing part is we’ve had a bit of money on Essendon at $101 for the flag. I think that’s supreme optimism.”
In Saturday night’s elimination final, the Brisbane Lions, with a host of stars under injury clouds, continue to ease.
“What we’re hearing out of Brisbane is they’re going to struggle a bit,” Davies said.
“They were originally $1.80 and Carlton was at $1.95, but in lieu of all those injuries we’ve made them equal favourites.
“But looking at the money today … I would say there’s no doubt in my mind that Carlton will run favourite.”
There has been money for both Geelong ($1.80) and the Western Bulldogs ($1.95) in their qualifying final clash while St Kilda ($1.68) is a clear favourite in its clash with Collingwood ($2.10).
In premiership betting, Davies believes the Cats have the most room for improvement and, as second pick, could be value at $3.75.
He said like any week, punters are apprehensive to back teams with losing form, which has seen Collingwood ($4.25) drift and the Bulldogs ($5) and Adelaide ($9) continue to shorten.
“You drop a game and you stink,” Davies said.
“We did have $3000 on the Bullies at $5, so that’s probably the biggest premiership bet.
“There’s just been a really good spread over the whole premiership market.”
Davies said betting on the Brownlow Medal was “just ticking”, with Gary Ablett back into a $3 clear favourite ahead of a host of players.
But some punters have taken a shining to a no-frills Western Bulldog.
“Probably the one who’s shortened up the most over the last four weeks has been Matthew Boyd," Davies said.
“He’s now into $17 … after round 18 he was $101, and that’s only four games ago. He’s certainly been the biggest mover of the ones in the top bracket.”
