WE have never seen anything like this so late in an AFL season. The twists are coming every quarter, and in an already wide-open series of matches, results and incidents in the past fortnight have turned 2023 on its head.
Collingwood was deemed the premier three weeks ago when it played badly against then-second placed Port Adelaide, yet still won. It has since lost to Carlton and Hawthorn. Nick Daicos had been effectively awarded the Brownlow Medal after round 19, and then signed a contract to the end of 2029. He wouldn't have polled votes in rounds 20 and 21, and now, because of a serious knee injury, won't be seen on an AFL ground again until preliminary final day, if the Pies get that far. And amid all that drama, Collingwood is as it was a fortnight ago – two matches clear on top of the ladder. For Collingwood, there are dangerous times ahead, but We Are The Champions (after round 21, at least).
Port Adelaide had won 13 consecutive matches. Losses in the past two weeks (Geelong on Saturday night and Adelaide the previous weekend) were added to defeats in rounds 18 and 19 (to Carlton and Collingwood). Four Ls in a row now and injuries everywhere. While still two-and-a-half matches clear in a double-chance finals spot, it will now likely be playing in white shorts in the first week in September. Livin' On A Prayer from here, the Power, but they're halfway there.
Melbourne has been without its best player Clayton Oliver since round 10. It abandoned the Brodie Grundy Project after round 17. It is now on a five-match winning romp, sits second on the ladder, and of all teams entrenched in the top four, is by far the outfit most in-form. And Oliver will surely return. As per New Kids On The Block, Hangin' Tough.
Brisbane lost in round 20, to Gold Coast. It was not at its best on Sunday against Fremantle in Perth, but it ground-out a win. It can still secure a qualifying final at the Gabba. In the past four seasons, Brisbane has either finished a home-and-away season in the top four, or won finals to finish the season in the top four. I'm Still Standing in 2023.
Then we get to Carlton. It couldn't win the whole thing, could it? Surely not. But why not? It defeated the Power in round 18, and in the past fortnight, overcame the Pies and the Saints, the latter in a very impressive slog-fest at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, when nothing went right in the first half. St Kilda entered round 21 in fifth place, and the Blues – who between rounds four and 14 lost eight of nine matches, including six in a row - finished the round in that position. Reason to keep talking about The Impossible Dream.
Then there's the Western Bulldogs. We have twice seen them reach a Grand Final from outside the top four in the past eight seasons. Their system in the win against Richmond last Friday was their best of the season. As Journey sings, Don't Stop Believing.
Geelong? No Hawkins or Blicavs for Saturday night's game against Port. And the Cats were unconvincing from a big-picture perspective, but they're the Cats. They always make finals. They've got the vulnerable Pies next Friday and there's not one team that would be comfortable playing in September. They're already in the Hall Of Fame.
And then there's the other team from last year's Grand Final, Sydney. It defeated the seven-wins-in-a-row GWS on Saturday night, for a fourth consecutive victory. Coach John Longmire is not wired to accept defeat, until it hits him. After round 17, the Swans were 15th on the ladder. With three matches remaining, they are 10th, just a half-game outside the eight. As Peter Gabriel and Kate Bush sang back in the late 1980s, Don't Give Up.
St Kilda and GWS finished round 21 in the eight. Both could still cause damage. So too Adelaide, which after a string of underwhelming performances, used the past fortnight to finish round 21 outside the top eight by just four premiership points (and with healthy percentage). Stayin' Alive, Stayin' Alive.
It's a lottery with three home-and-away season matches remaining. And as always, The Winner Takes It All.
