SECOND place has never looked so good.

With the top-four almost set, Brisbane and Port Adelaide's race to finish behind Collingwood in second spot could be the final fortnight's most intriguing finals subplot. And with good reason.

Brisbane has won its last 11 matches at the Gabba and would be eyeing the tantalising prospect of home qualifying and preliminary finals to bolster its premiership hopes, while Port Adelaide's record at the Adelaide Oval is just as daunting for rival teams.

The Power have now won nine of their last 10 games against interstate sides at the Adelaide Oval, but must either leapfrog the Lions – or gain 12.2 percent in the campaign's final fortnight – to bridge the gap.

With this year's qualifying finalists all but mathematically locked in, AFL.com.au has crunched the numbers to determine why the order of the top-four could be so important in the last two weeks of the season.

1. Collingwood (17-4, 126.7 per cent)

R23: Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Essendon @ the MCG

Collingwood is assured of the minor premiership, but will still have a keen eye on its opponents. Part of Craig McRae might be hoping that, despite its superiority against almost every side across the year, the club doesn't meet Brisbane in September.

While the Pies are 7-2 against the Demons dating back to 2017, and have won their last three fixtures against the Power, it's the Lions who have long proved a bogey side for McRae and his men.

Collingwood has now lost its last five games against Brisbane, with four of them in Queensland, while the Pies are also 0-5 in their last five matches at the Gabba. One of them being a semi-final against the Cats in 2020.

The premiership favourites should have back-to-back finals at the MCG, all things being considered. That will be a bonus for Collingwood, who is 11-3 from its last 14 games at the ground.

But the Pies won't be fearing a trip to the Adelaide Oval, should they lose a qualifying final and be forced to travel there throughout September. They have now won eight straight games in South Australia, dating back to 2018.

2. Brisbane (15-6, 123.2 per cent)

R23: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium
R24: St Kilda @ the Gabba

Come to the Gabba, if you dare.

Brisbane's premiership hopes might hang on securing a top-two berth, such is the club's sensational record at its home ground. The Lions have now won 11 straight at the Gabba and hold a remarkable 49-8 record there, dating back to the start of 2019.

Conversely, should Brisbane be forced to travel throughout September, the tables could be drastically turned for Chris Fagan's outfit. This season alone, the Lions are 10-0 in Queensland and 4-6 on the road.

Those numbers stack up longer-term, as well. With the prospect of games against Collingwood and Melbourne, Brisbane is now 1-14 at the MCG dating back to 2015. The club is also 3-9 at the Adelaide Oval since that ground opened in 2014.

Brisbane has played Melbourne in its last two finals series, splitting those games 1-1, while it has a strong recent record against both Collingwood (5-0 dating back to 2020) and Port Adelaide (5-1 dating back to 2019).

3. Port Adelaide (15-6, 111 per cent)

R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R24: Richmond @ the Adelaide Oval

On paper, at least, the numbers don't look good.

Port Adelaide's record against its top-four rivals and the club's fellow premiership contenders could mean that Ken Hinkley and his side will have to overturn some bad omens throughout September.

The club has dropped its last three straight fixtures against Collingwood, has lost five of its last six games against Brisbane, and has suffered defeat in three of its last four matches against Melbourne.

The Power have won their last two games at the MCG, but had lost their last four matches at the ground before that. Meanwhile, they have an even 3-3 split at the Gabba going back to 2020.

Port Adelaide does hold a fear factor at the Adelaide Oval, though. The club has won nine of its last 10 home fixtures against interstate teams, with its only defeat coming via a narrow two-point loss to Collingwood earlier this season.

As is the case with Brisbane, a top-two finish might therefore be a must for Port's flag hopes.

4. Melbourne (14-7, 124 per cent)

R23: Hawthorn @ the MCG
R24: Sydney @ the SCG

Anywhere, any time.

Melbourne might be the only side not mathematically guaranteed of a top-four spot just yet, and subsequently the most likely to finish in fourth, but its record against premiership contenders is perhaps the most impressive.

The Demons are formidable at home and have won 10 of their 12 games at the MCG this season. But they are also 7-3 at the Adelaide Oval dating back to 2018, and have won three of their last four games at the Gabba.

Simon Goodwin's side will fancy its chances against Brisbane and Port Adelaide, whether that comes in a qualifying final or somewhere later down the line. Collingwood would be a different proposition, though.

The Demons hold strong recent records against the Lions (9-4, dating back to 2015) and the Power (3-1, dating back to 2021), but they have won just twice in their last nine outings against the Magpies since 2017.

Melbourne has played finals against Brisbane in successive seasons now, winning a qualifying final against the Lions on its way to premiership glory in 2021 before dropping last year's semi-final at the MCG.