DURING 2005-2006, when Hawthorn finished 14th and 11th, the club had five players nominated for the NAB AFL Rising Star Award. It won the flag in 2008.
Last week Hawthorn's Luke Breust became the Hawks 29th Rising Star nomination since the award's inauguration in 1993, and the club's second for the season. Could it be a sign of things to come?
Although the selection is subjective and eligibility rules throw up some anomalies - Collingwood's Steele Sidebottom and Gold Coast Suns' Gary Ablett, for instance, were not nominated in their formative seasons - most still regard a nomination as an indication that a club is unearthing talent that will play a key part in future campaigns.
However arguing that the number of Rising Star nominations makes a useful predictor of future premiership success is difficult.
During that same two-year period in which Hawthorn showed its new talent, the Brisbane Lions had seven players nominated for the Rising Star Award as the club's golden era came to an end.
The Lions finished 10th in 2008 and will be vying for the wooden spoon in 2011, and only two of the seven Lions nominated during that time remain at the club.
Four of the Hawks' five nominations were first-round picks, whereas the Lions' seven nominations had an average draft pick of 37 plus a rookie elevation.
While analysis of draft picks and list management can point to a team moving into contention, the Hawthorn-Lions comparison shows that the place of Rising Star nominations as an indicator of success is unclear.
Conventional wisdom suggests any premiership team needs about eight players who are first-round draft picks (or of equivalent standing but selected through father-son or a zone selection).
Since 2002, the average number of players fitting that category in each premiership team has been 10.22 (a number that includes players such as Darren Jolly, originally a rookie who made his way to both the Sydney Swans and Collingwood in exchange for a first-round draft pick).
For purposes of comparison, Richmond has six first-round draft picks on its list.
Collingwood - even with a premiership team that had many rookie elevations in the line-up - had nine first-round draft picks in its 2010 team (Luke Ball, Nathan Brown, Alan Didak, Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Ben Reid, Steele Sidebottom, Dale Thomas, Leigh Brown and two father-son picks - Heath Shaw and Travis Cloke).
History also suggests that clubs need two solid to spectacular drafts in near succession to win a flag, mirroring what Geelong did in 1999 and 2001 (Paul Chapman, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling, Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Steve Johnson, Gary Ablett) or Hawthorn in 2004 and 2005 (Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin, Jordan Lewis, Xavier Ellis, Grant Birchall) or Collingwood in 2005 and 2006, (Thomas, Pendlebury, Reid, Brown, Chris Dawes and Tyson Goldsack) with a couple of handy extras picked up along the way.
Since 2002, the average number of NAB AFL Rising Star nominations in a premiership team has been 9.44. Collingwood's flag-winning team of 2010 contained 10 Rising Star nominees (including Leigh Brown who received his nomination while an 18-year-old at Fremantle).
Of the past five premiership clubs, Collingwood had six players nominated between 2005-2008 who played in the flag and Geelong five players from 2001-2004, while Hawthorn had six players nominated from 2005-2006. West Coast had six players nominated between 2000 and 2004 before the 2006 flag. Even the Swans - traditionally a club that receives few nominations - managed five nominations from 2000 to 2004 who became premiership players in 2005.
Although many youngsters on a list might cause many nominations, the best number over a three-four year period is in the order of half a dozen. More or less than that number points to an unbalanced list.
Of current lists Melbourne has the most Rising Star nominees among the playing group, with 16. The top five teams, Geelong (12), Collingwood and Carlton (10), Hawthorn (13) and West Coast (12) all have 10 or more nominees on their list. Three other clubs - Fremantle (11), Port Adelaide (11) and the Bulldogs (12) - are in that range as well while the remaining clubs have fewer than 10 nominees on the list. The Eagles had three other players who earned nominations while playing with them, but are now at other clubs.
Of Essendon's nine nominees, eight have been earned since 2008, indicating a list that tilted one way but is on the way to righting itself. The biggest worry is Port Adelaide, which has only had three players nominated since appearing in the 2007 Grand Final but does not have the recent success and star senior players to explain the recent low numbers nominated at St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs.
Another reason to be careful about getting too excited about a crop of Rising Star nominations as a portent to future success is that premiership ruckmen rarely earn a nomination.
Since 1993, only seven ruckmen (and mostly second ruckmen) have been nominated and then played in a premiership: Leigh Brown (Collingwood), Steven King (Geelong), Mark Seaby (West Coast Eagles), Jamie Charman (Brisbane Lions), Beau McDonald (Brisbane Lions), Corey McKernan (North Melbourne) and Matthew Capuano (North Melbourne).
Of course big men take longer to come on - another quirk that needs to be considered when assessing Rising Stars. Clubs trade in ruckmen these days. The first ruckman of each of last year's top four teams was at his second club (Jolly is at his third). Six of the ruckmen nominated played at more than one club too.
Ruckmen are a bit like wicketkeepers - they tend to swap clubs to find security. That's a reality of life. To be a real contender clubs need to lure a quality tall down the track.
So supporters of clubs earning lots of nominations (or conversely those receiving few) need to understand they are not necessarily essential signposts on the way to a flag.
Any club can unearth young talent that shines for one game; it takes good coaching, conditioning and development processes to make such players professional and seasoned performers in sides that are in contention.
Fast facts
- Of the 413 nominations made, 106 have become premiership players.
- Since the award started in 1993, the Eagles have had the most nominations with 33.
- Sydney Swans and St Kilda have been successful clubs but have the fewest nominations (excluding Gold Coast and Fitzroy) of any club, with 19 each until round 15 this season.
