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The run home: round 16

staff reporters  July 14, 2013 8:42 PM

The 10: round 16 All the thrilling highlights from the weekend's footy
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Saturday night's win leaves the Blues eyeballing a spot in the eight

1. Hawthorn 
52 points (13 wins, two losses) 142 per cent

The Hawks face a tricky run home and will have to work hard to keep top spot from nemesis Geelong. Their clashes against Essendon (round 18), Collingwood (round 21) and the Sydney Swans (round 23) loom as season-defining games.
 
The run home:
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Aurora Stadium
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium

Click here to forecast your team's finals chances with the 2013 ladder predictor 

2. Geelong 
52 points (13 wins, two losses) 132.7 per cent

Sitting pretty in the top two, the Cats are a very good chance to still be there at the end of the home and away season, with four more games to come at Simonds Stadium. But to topple the Hawks from top spot, the Cats will have to make a good fist of tricky away games against Adelaide (round 17) and West Coast (round 21), plus a home clash against fellow premiership aspirants the Sydney Swans in round 22.

The run home:
Rd 17: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium

3. Essendon 
48 points (12 wins, three losses) 130.2 per cent

The Bombers are headed to the finals but will be setting their sights higher, with a top-two finish not out of the question. Essendon's draw is not easy and includes blockbuster games against traditional rivals Collingwood (round 19), Carlton (round 22) and Richmond (round 23) at the MCG. The Dons' round 18 clash against Hawthorn will give the most accurate indication of their premiership credentials.

The run home:
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 23: Richmond at the MCG

4. Sydney Swans 
46 points (11 wins, three losses, one draw) 142.2 per cent

The premiers remain right in the hunt for the top four after thrashing Greater Western Sydney for their third consecutive win. But the Swans face a tough run home that mirrors their run into the finals last year, with West Coast at Patersons Stadium their next assignment and three of their final four games coming against Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn.

The run home:
Rd 17: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the SCG
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at ANZ Stadium

5. Fremantle 
46 points (11 wins, three losses, one draw) 126.3 per cent

The Dockers remain on track to challenge for a top-two finish after their hard-earned Derby win over West Coast. The only contests that appear to present issues are those against Richmond at the MCG and Carlton at Etihad Stadium a fortnight later in round 19. They face St Kilda again and have easy-looking outings against Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne.

The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium

6. Richmond
40 points (10 wins, five losses) 116.7 per cent

After finally notching their maiden win against Gold Coast – and their first win at Cairns' Cazaly's Stadium – the Tigers will almost certainly play finals for the first time since 2001. A push for a top-four spot seems unlikely given Richmond faces Fremantle, the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn in the next three rounds and Essendon in the final round, but such a tough draw should prepare the Tigers for the intensity of finals football.

The run home:
Rd 17: Fremantle at the MCG
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG

7. Collingwood
40 points (10 wins, five losses) 109.4 per cent

Back on track after impressive wins against Carlton and Adelaide, the Magpies will all but book a finals berth if they beat Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney in the next two weeks. Their run home becomes drastically harder after that with return clashes against top sides Hawthorn, the Swans and Essendon, the trio having belted the Pies by an average of 49 points earlier this season.

The run home:
Rd 17: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 22: West Coast at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

8. Port Adelaide 
32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 108.9 per cent

With Carlton and West Coast breathing down their neck, the Power is probably the only team in the top eight that can realistically miss the finals. But Port's draw is relatively kind, with just two of their final seven games coming against fellow top-eight teams – Geelong (round 20) and Fremantle (round 22). Four of those remaining games are on their home turf.

The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at AAMI Stadium

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9. Carlton
28 points (seven wins, eight losses) 111.4 per cent

The Blues broke a four-game losing streak with their win over St Kilda to put themselves just one game outside the eight. They face an 'eight-point' game against North Melbourne next round when a win would effectively end the Roos' season. If the Power falter in the run home, the Blues' draw should give them an edge over West Coast, while they are effectively two games ahead of the Brisbane Lions given their far superior percentage.

The run home:
Rd 17: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium

10. West Coast
28 points (seven wins, eight losses) 107.1 per cent

The Eagles remain just one game outside the eight despite their Derby loss to Fremantle. West Coast has to bank three wins against the Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Adelaide, but the other four matches will be very tough. Four matches at home does not look as appealing as it would have in previous years given the Eagles have lost six of eight at Patersons this season.
 
The run home:
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Gold Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium

11. North Melbourne
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 116.1 per cent

North Melbourne's finals chances appear shot after yet another fadeout loss against the Brisbane Lions. With a draw that includes clashes with the current top three teams, Hawthorn, Geelong and Essendon, along with Collingwood in round 23, the Roos need a miracle.

The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG

12. Adelaide
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 102.5 per cent

The Crows' losses to West Coast and Collingwood all but snuffed out their slim finals hopes, with a tough run looming and at least six wins required from seven games. Preliminary finalists last year, they are still a way off the level they set last year and with games against two premiership contenders and two Western Australian road trips to come, finals football is practically out of reach.

The run home:
Rd 17: Geelong at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Patersons Stadium

13. Brisbane Lions
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 80.3 per cent

The Lions' comeback win over North Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive but they remain extreme long shots. The Lions have the easiest draw of the teams trying to force their way into the top eight, with winnable games against Melbourne at the MCG, and St Kilda, GWS and the Western Bulldogs at home. However, their poor percentage means the Lions probably can't afford to drop another game.

The run home:
Rd 17: Melbourne at TIO Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the Gabba
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Greater Western Sydney at the Gabba
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium

Click here to forecast your team's finals chances with the 2013 ladder predictor