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Who wins this year's Brownlow Medal?

Ashley Browne  September 18, 2013 2:27 PM

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All Australian captain and Geelong star Joel Selwood is tipped to win this year's Brownlow Medal

Is Gary Ablett the walk-up start to win his second Brownlow Medal? Not so fast.
 
The AFL.com.au Brownlow Medal Predictor has it differently, with Geelong skipper Joel Selwood storming home to beat his Gold Coast counterpart and former teammate Ablett in a grandstand finish.
 
AFL.com.au writers cast their own votes after every match in 2013 and we have Selwood saluting on 25 votes, one ahead of Ablett.
 
We have Ablett on 18 votes after a dazzling mid-season patch where he scores 14 votes in five matches between rounds seven and 11.
 
But we then have Selwood registering four three-vote games between rounds 15 and 21 to take an unassailable lead into the final round and not even Ablett's blistering 33-possession, four-goal game in the final match of the year against Greater Western Sydney, could get him over the line.
 
Indications are it will be a tight count this year with our predictor having eight players – Ablett, Nat Fyfe (who is ineligible), Ryan Griffen, Dane Swan, Luke Hodge, Daniel Hannebery, Patrick Dangerfield and Jobe Watson all finishing within six votes of Selwood.
 
At the other end of the scale, we predict a bleak night for Melbourne, pretty much in keeping with the club's season from hell.
 

We have just seven Melbourne players figuring in the votes and polling just 12 votes in total, which is less than half we predict for Selwood. Of those, Jeremy Howe will be the leading vote getter with three.
 
Were we a bit harsh on the poor, old Demons? Have we undersold the great Gazza who has won just about everything of note this year?
 
Follow AFL.com.au's live coverage on Monday night to find out.

Below: The great Gary Ablett in 2009 with former partner Lauren Phillips. Picture AFL Media

Bombers skipper Jobe Watson (below) celebrates with the medal in 2012. Picture AFL Media


Former winner Dane Swan with partner Taylor Wilson on the red carpet in 2012. Picture AFL Media