WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday September 27, 2.30pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for the broadcast guide
THIS YEAR
R8, 2014, Sydney Swans 15.17 (107) d Hawthorn 13.10 (88) at ANZ Stadium
In his first match against his former club, Lance Franklin played a decisive role in the Swans' 19-point win at ANZ Stadium. The former Hawk booted seven straight behinds in the first three quarters, but he kicked two crucial goals in the last term as the Swans fought back to win. Hawthorn had been cut down by injury, with Sam Mitchell, Brian Lake and Luke Hodge, who was a late withdrawal, missing. Cyril Rioli also suffered a hamstring injury in the third quarter. Midfielder Dan Hannebery (40 possessions) was brilliant for the victors, while tall forward Kurt Tippett booted four goals in his first game for the season.
R18 2014, Hawthorn 15.14 (104) d Sydney Swans 13.16 (94) at the MCG
The Hawks snapped the Swans' 12-game winning streak, coming back from a 23-point deficit in the third quarter to win by 10 points. It was a gritty performance, full of perseverance and resilience in front of more than 72,000 fans. Jarryd Roughead booted four goals in his 200th game, opposed to Ted Richards, and at the other end star Swan Lance Franklin kicked 3.5 on good mate Josh Gibson. Jordan Lewis (35 possessions) and Sam Mitchell (32) were influential in the midfield for the Hawks.
PREVIOUS FIVE ENCOUNTERS
R18 2014, Hawthorn 15.14 (104) d Sydney Swans 13.16 (94) at the MCG
R8, 2014, Sydney Swans 15.17 (107) d Hawthorn 13.10 (88) at ANZ Stadium
QF, 2013, Hawthorn 15.15 (105) d Sydney Swans 7.9 (51) at the MCG
R23, 2013, Sydney Swans 16.4 (100) lost to Hawthorn 17.10 (112) at ANZ Stadium
R7, 2013, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Sydney Swans 12.10 (82) at the MCG
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KEY MATCH-UPS
Lance Franklin v Josh Gibson
Franklin enters the Grand Final in imposing form after booting 5.2 against North Melbourne in the Swans' preliminary final win. He has pushed up the ground to devastating effect in recent weeks, and Gibson is the Hawk most capable of going with him. The Hawks will bank on Gibson knowing some tricks picked up on the training track to shut down Franklin. They'll also bank on a team defence that can help contain the dynamic Swan.
Josh Kennedy v Sam Mitchell
They might not run with each other, but these two midfielders are crucial to their team's chances. Both accomplished big-game performers, Mitchell and Kennedy will work at the coalface racking up contested ball and clearances. Whoever gets on top when the game is in the balance could prove the most valuable player on the ground.
MEDICAL ROOM
Cyril Rioli played in the VFL Grand Final on Sunday and was pulled out after three quarters, seemingly having proved his fitness after 12 weeks sidelined with a hamstring injury.
All Australian midfielder Jordan Lewis, meanwhile, suffered a corked calf in the Hawks' win over Port Adelaide and has been icing it round the clock to ensure he is fit for the decider.
Tall forward Sam Reid was substituted at three-quarter time of the Swans' preliminary final win over North Melbourne with knee soreness, but he will train on Thursday to prove his fitness. The Swans have no other injury concerns.
THE SIX POINTS
1. In two games against his former side, Swans star Lance Franklin has kicked a combined total of 5.12. He kicked seven consecutive behinds in the first three quarters of the sides' round eight clash before kicking his first goal. Buddy has kicked 75.49 this season.
2. Hawthorn is ranked No.1 this season for total goals kicked with 397 at 16.5 per game. The Swans are ranked No.3 with 340 at 14.2 a game. In two finals this September, the Hawks average score is 100 points compared to the Swans' 114.
3. The Swans and Hawthorn clash in a Grand Final for the second time in three seasons and their fourth final since 2011. The Swans won by 10 points in the 2012 decider, while in all finals the Hawks hold the advantage 4-2.
4. The Swans have taken the ball inside 50 this season an average of 56.8 times a game compared to Hawthorn’s 55 a game, but the Hawks average 12.6 marks inside 50 to the Swans' 12.2.
5. The Swans have played in 15 Grand Finals for five premierships. Since moving to Sydney in 1982, they have played in four Grand Finals for two flags. Their last three have been decided by four, one and 10 points. Hawthorn has played in 17 Grand Finals for 11 premierships and will be aiming for back-to-back flags for only the second time in the club's history (they won successive Grand Finals in 1988-89)
6. Swan Gary Rohan was the No.1 ranked player in the Official AFL Player Ratings across the two preliminary finals. The versatile speedster, who was used at both ends of the ground against the Kangaroos, has lifted his overall ranking from 599 overall to 412 ahead of the Grand Final.
PREDICTION: Sydney Swans by 11 points
