BROWNLOW betting markets are in turmoil after Gold Coast champion Gary Ablett appeared to catch Western Bulldog opponent Liam Picken with a high elbow as they tussled on the ground on Sunday afternoon.
Ablett, who just turned 30, is an odds-on favourite to claim his third Brownlow Medal and join Haydn Bunton snr, Dick Reynolds, Bob Skilton and Ian Stewart in the game's most exclusive club as triple Brownlow medallists.
The Suns star has been the AFL's dominant player to date in 2014 and is currently rated a $1.90 chance to win this year's medal after averaging 32.1 disposals and two goals per game. However, betting on the Brownlow Medal has been suspended in the wake of Sunday's game as the football world awaits the Match Review Panel's verdict on Monday afternoon.
A scrupulously fair player, Ablett has never been suspended despite copping plenty of attention from opposition taggers throughout his career, and particularly over the past eight seasons since he became a midfield gun.
Should Ablett be ruled ineligible to win the Brownlow, the field opens up considerably. Sydney Swans' Josh Kennedy, Adelaide's Patrick Dangerfield, Collingwood Scott Pendlebury and Geelong skipper Joel Selwood would be jostling for favouritism in a market without the Gold Coast champ.
As we await the MRP's verdict, AFL.com.au's Queensland reporter Michael Whiting and Tribunal expert Adam McNicol run through the potential scenarios facing the men charged with assessing the incident:
Technically and morally, there's no way Gaz should go for that. While he throws an elbow towards Picken, the footage is inconclusive and there's no way of telling exactly where it landed. The Bulldogs' tagger bounced back to his feet and continued to niggle for the rest of the day, and you can be assured if Ablett hit him high, with medium to high impact, Picken would still be in a Gold Coast hospital. Crunch the numbers however you like, the outcome shouldn't be enough to put him over 100 and out of contention for a Brownlow. Aside from Crows coach Brenton Sanderson (who the Suns play next weekend), who really wants to see the champion robbed of a chance at a third 'Charlie' for something so insignificant? Throw it out and let's move on. - Michael Whiting
SORRY GAZ, YOU'VE GOT TO GO
If you make any contact to the head of an opponent, you're in trouble. And if it's forceful contact, you're in big trouble. If it's behind play, you're in even more strife. So the key area of concern for Little Gazza, as he awaits the verdict of the Match Review Panel, is how the incident is graded. It is quite likely that the grading will be decided by the contents of the injury report lodged by the Bulldogs. If the report shows that Picken suffered some kind of injury after being collected by Ablett's stray elbow, then Gazza is a goner. If the injury report is clear, he is a chance to be cleared or escape with a reprimand and remain in Brownlow Medal contention. And that could all be rendered moot if the MRP decides the incident was behind the play, which generally carries an 'intentional' grading. My tip is a one-match ban, which would rule him out of the Brownlow and throw the betting markets into chaos. Even if Ablett pleads guilty and gets a 25 per cent discount, he is still out of Brownlow contention if the original penalty was 100 points or more. - Adam McNicol
