1. The fall of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda
One has been a preliminary finalist for three years and the other has played in the past three grand finals, including last year's double-header against Collingwood. With average ages of 23 (plus 259 days for the Dogs and 345 for the Saints), there was no real reason to suggest either would fall away dramatically, other than the feeling unsuccessful finals campaigns had taken a mental toll.
Although the Dogs lost veterans Brad Johnson, Jason Akermanis and Nathan Eagleton to retirement, and defender Jarrod Harbrow to Gold Coast, they topped up on pace with Justin Sherman, Patrick Veszpremi and Nathan Djerrkura. They also picked up blue-chip and ready-to-go draftees Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore through the NAB AFL Draft.
With 11 players turning 28 this year, it seemed the list was the perfect blend of experience and youth. But the pre-season injury problems of Brian Lake, Adam Cooney and Ryan Hargrave have lingered and Barry Hall can't get his body right. Throw in the form problems of Ben Hudson, Lindsay Gilbee, and earlier, Daniel Giansiracusa, and you gain more of an understanding of why things have gone awry.
The Saints, worn out by three falls at the final hurdle, had an off-season from hell. Their well-publicised issues started in December and have lingered throughout the season.
Losing inspirational talisman Lenny Hayes in round two to a season-ending knee injury was a major blow, while the subsequent form slumps of Nick Riewoldt and Brendon Goddard have hurt deeply. While things have improved in the past month, just four wins means they'll need at least six in the second half of the season to keep their dream of playing into September alive.
2. The form of Brian Lake and Sam Gilbert
Last year Lake took the most marks in the competition, was seventh in contested grabs and sixth in defensive rebounds. He earned All Australian selection for the second year running and played every game despite on-going troubles with his hip that would later require an operation.
At the end of the season he had further surgery on his knee and then his shoulder and endured a restricted summer program. He subsequently failed to build confidence in his battered body despite stringing together a good block of training. It was then revealed he was embroiled in an off-field dispute with former teammate Eagleton, related to a failed business venture last year.
Whether it is his body or mind letting him down, something has affected the 29-year-old to the point where he has managed five mediocre senior games and a few unconvincing VFL performances. He enters the second half of the season bereft of the form that, as recently as 2010, made him an integral part of the Dogs' line up.
After Gilbert's name, the 2011 AFL Record Season Guide reads, "Is certain to become the competition's new 'swing man' after proving his worth as a pinch-hitting forward in the grand finals." He was second to Lake in the competition for marks last year and placed third in St Kilda's best and fairest. He also travelled to Ireland in the off-season and was involved in Australia's 2-0 International Rules triumph.
Just when it all seemed to be going right for the 2007 NAB AFL Rising Star nominee, it all went wrong just as quickly. The Saints scandal that saw nude photos of Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo circulated worldwide via the internet started at Gilbert's laptop. Whether that had an emotional impact on the 24-year-old Queenslander or if he has just fallen victim to St Kilda's overall struggles, his output has dropped from an average of more than 22 possessions a game to just over 16.
3. Melbourne's lack of improvement
After finishing 14th, 16th and 16th between 2007 and 2009, Melbourne supporters would have been excited by eight wins and a rise to 12th last season. With another year's development in high draftees Jack Watts, Tom Scully and Jack Trengove, and the All Australian form of James Frawley, optimism was high.
As round 13 approaches, the Demons have won just four matches (plus a draw) and are 10th on the ladder. Their 88-point capitulation to Collingwood last Monday formed a bitter counterpoint to their heartening win over Essendon the week before. Coach Dean Bailey can't be entirely blamed - injuries have cruelled them with Jack Grimes (foot) and Jake Spencer (knee) gone for the year. Tom Scully (knee), Jack Trengove (suspension), Mark Jamar (knee), Rohan Bail (knee), Clint Bartram (hip), Luke Tapscott (hamstring), Michael Newton (foot), Aaron Davey (knee), Robbie Campbell (knee) and Col Garland (ankle) have also been missing for extended periods in the first half of the season.
But the fact the side continues to ride a rollercoaster with such a fluctuating form-line has to be frustrating - and, to a point, inexcusable with Brad Green, Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia, Jared Rivers and Davey all expected to stand up and fill the leadership void left by James McDonald (retired) and Cameron Bruce (Hawthorn).
4. The competitiveness of West Coast and domination of Geelong
Not many tipped the Eagles to have such a turnaround from their woeful 2010 season in which the club claimed its first-ever wooden spoon. At the mid-point they've won seven games and are sixth on the ladder, with Dean Cox revitalised and Daniel Kerr back to his best. They've found players in Andrew Gaff and Jack Darling, and Josh Kennedy is third with 34 goals in the race for the Coleman medal behind Lance Franklin (39) and Jack Riewoldt (38). But perhaps more importantly, coach John Worsfold has them all pulling in the same direction with a game plan involving a forward press that has proved effective against most opponents.
The Cats lost coach Mark Thompson and champion midfielder Gary Ablett at the end of last season and employed the untried Chris Scott to take over a side expected to go backwards slightly after four years of dominance. It's been the opposite. The Cats have been blessed with a small injury list, although Scott has taken to resting players at times, and experienced campaigners Matthew Scarlett and James Kelly are in terrific form. The new coach hasn't forgotten the future either and has put games into Nathan Vardy, Allen Christensen and Josh Cowan, and more into Mitch Duncan and Daniel Menzel. The fact the Cats are yet to lose a game despite struggling in attack with the form of Tom Hawkins and injury to Cameron Mooney is a testament to the evenness of the side.
5. Collingwood's mid-season venture
The Magpies say it's been in the pipeline for two years but it came as a surprise to most when they packed up four of their players ahead of round 12 and sent them to Arizona - the home of their valued pre-season altitude camp - for a fitness top up. Dane Swan, who was reported to have been battling quad soreness, Darren Jolly, who hadn't played since Anzac Day due to a knee complaint that required surgery, Nathan Brown (knee reconstruction) and Brent Macaffer (foot) headed to the camp, which extended over round 12 and saw Swan miss the big win over Melbourne. The players will return this weekend - the Pies' second bye - and the club has hopes Swan, Jolly and Macaffer will be available for selection the week after against the Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium.
The expedition initially raised eyebrows -especially when club football department spending is being compared and contrasted across the competition - and the confidence of the Pies, who are undefeated apart from a three-point loss to Geelong, was emphasised by their decision to take Swan away from a game in an effort to have him better placed later in the year. With clubs becoming more and more savvy when it comes to sports science, it's really only the start of further experimentation with ways to gain an all-important edge.
NOT SURPRISING
1. Gold Coast - the highs and lows
Before the season started opinions were divided on how the Suns would fare, but most thought their success would be limited. With an average age of just over 21 years and 12 players making their AFL debut in the club's first match, year one in the senior competition was always going to be tough for the club that started from scratch.
The gap between the best and worst has been big but not unexpected. The 139-point flogging by Essendon in round six - just a week after their first win against Port Adelaide by three points - saw the Suns at their lowest ebb. In the next round, they responded courageously to win the first QClash against state rivals the Brisbane Lions by eight points at the Gabba.
The revelation of former soccer player Zac Smith as an athletic ruckman and the unveiling of highly-touted draft picks David Swallow, Harley Bennell, Sam Day and Brandon Matera has been a high. Campbell Brown's four-match suspension for separate incidents against the Western Bulldogs in round two was a low, as was the persistent questioning of Gary Ablett's ability to captain. But with their home ground opening in round 10 against Geelong - and six more games to come at Metricon Stadium later this season - there is plenty of time for the Suns to enjoy more positives in their inaugural year.
2. Essendon's early season bubble was always going to burst
The excitement around the Bombers and their new coaching panel headed by club champion James Hird was palpable across summer, and it's no surprise his players embraced a tough training regime in a bid to reverse the club's fortunes after the Matthew Knights' era ended with a 14th-placed finish on the ladder with just seven wins. Their fitness and enthusiasm was clear in the NAB Cup competition, and they went all the way to the Grand Final only to lose to Collingwood.
The new game plan, which had more defensive steel than Knights' and included a forward press, was embraced and worked well with Essendon winning two of its first three matches before drawing with Carlton in round four. They then lost to the Magpies for the second time this year before embarking on a three-game winning streak that had them as high as third after round eight. Since, the Bombers have lost their past three games.
While the Hird effect is measured in the club's 50,000-plus members and the attraction of new sponsors, it was always going to be hard to maintain the pre-season edge when only Dyson Heppell and Michael Hibberd have been added to the senior group and former rookie Stuart Crameri has stepped up. Hird is concerned with long-term success, and while the year so far has been a step in the right direction, he's right in his weekend reminder that "sustained improvement takes two or three years to build".
3. The Magpies - picking up where they left off
With Simon Prestigiacomo, Tarkyn Lockyer, Shane O'Bree (retirement), Josh Fraser (Gold Coast) and Jack Anthony (Fremantle) the main departures at the end of 2010, the Pies were in good shape list-wise heading into the season. They topped up with Chris Tarrant returning from Fremantle and Andrew Krakouer joining after his stunning comeback in the WAFL, with Tarrant's worth emphasised even more when Nathan Brown went down with a knee injury in March.
The biggest concern for the rest of the competition is that the Pies are still winning even though they haven't had their best side on the park together yet. Nick Maxwell missed the first two games - and the NAB Cup grand final win over Essendon - with internal bruising, Jolly has played just four games for the season while Ben Johnson has had hamstring problems, Tyson Goldsack has been up and down after illness, Dayne Beams is gone for a long period with a foot problem and Dale Thomas (suspension) and Swan missed last week's win over Melbourne.
With Leon Davis benefitting from a move to the half-back line, Alan Didak's best surely in front of him and at least eight players to come back, the Pies have plenty to look forward to in the second half of the season, although they have a challenging draw with six games against top eight teams and trips to Sydney, the Gold Coast, Adelaide and Perth on the cards.
4. Top 10 draftees justify their ranking
From last year's NAB AFL Draft top 10, nine have debuted at AFL level. The Suns' crop - Swallow, Bennell, Day, Dion Prestia and Daniel Gorringe - have played multiple games and have shown positive signs while Gaff, Heppell, Jared Polec (Brisbane Lions) and Reece Conca (Richmond) have all made an impact at senior level although Polec has been recently sidelined with a knee. Only Gold Coast midfielder Josh Caddy (selection No.7 overall) has not played, and he has been battling a foot injury.
5. The players' dispute with the AFL over the collective bargaining agreement continues
With the new five-year broadcasting deal worth $1.25 billion announced at the end of April, the discussions between the AFLPA and the League on players' pay were sure to heat up in the weeks that followed. The AFL laid down a June 30 deadline for an agreement with the player union - and is still hopeful that will happen - but has reached a sticking point after rejecting the demand for 25 per cent of football revenue to go to the players.
It was always going to be messy, with many players including AFLPA president Luke Power, Sydney Swan Adam Goodes and Collingwood's Luke Ball publicly calling for the players to be rewarded for making the game worth the record $1.25 billion it generated from the broadcasting partners.
While AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou admitted the players deserved to be fairly compensated for their efforts, his said asking for a set percentage of the pie was a "lazy" way of doing business. The AFLPA is standing strong, although Power recently told The Age it was open to looking at different scenarios. Either way, this is one dispute that could carry on for a while yet, with Demetriou again noting on Wednesday that the AFL had a "philosophical difference" about the union's claim for a percentage-based pay rise.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs
