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Brownlow Predictor: The votes are in, and this year's Brownlow goes to the wire

Ben Guthrie and Nathan Schmook  September 3, 2014 9:52 PM

AFL 2014 Rd 23 - Geelong v Brisbane

Joel Selwood's impressive performance in the final round victory over the Lions could help him win the Brownlow Medal

GEELONG captain Joel Selwood will pip Gold Coast superstar Gary Ablett for this year's Brownlow Medal, according to AFL.com.au's predictor.

Compiled using votes from AFL Media reporters at every match this season, the duo head into the last round of the season tied on 22 votes.

But Selwood edges in front of Ablett in a last-gasp performance, polling one vote in Geelong's big win over the Brisbane Lions – a game where the Cats star gathered 29 disposals and kicked two goals.

Ablett polled his 22 votes on the Brownlow Predictor in the first 15 rounds, while Selwood polled 11 of his 22 votes since round 15 to charge into contention.  


Selwood is now the $2.50 standout favourite with TAB Sportsbet, with Ablett a close second at $3.25.

The Suns captain retains that mantle despite being sidelined since round 17 after season-ending shoulder surgery.

Ablett won the 2013 Brownlow Medal by one vote, nudging out Selwood by polling three votes in the final round of the season.

AFL Coaches' Association medal winner Robbie Gray is expected to finish fourth in the count, marginally behind Sydney Swans spearhead Lance Franklin. 

Franklin, a $21 outsider, may be hurt by missing the final round of the season after being rested for the loss against Richmond.

The star Swan is expected to poll 20 votes, while Gray might find himself tied with Dayne Beams in equal fourth on 19 votes if the predictor is to be believed.

Beams has flown under the Brownlow radar despite producing an excellent year. He played 19 matches and averaged more than 27 disposals and five tackles a game. The 24-year-old also booted an eye-catching 23 goals.

Click here for the latest Brownlow Medal news

Ineligible Fremantle star Nat Fyfe became a realistic chance to poll the most votes in this year's count between rounds 13 and 19, polling a predicted 13 votes in those seven matches.

However, he has been ineligible to win since being charged with rough conduct in round two and missing two matches through suspension. 

Sydney Swans midfielder Josh Kennedy (18 votes) and West Coast ball-magnet Matt Priddis (18 votes) – fresh from their All Australian nominations – are also well placed.

Young Essendon star Dyson Heppell has been pushing into Brownlow calculations, but he sits further down the rankings on the Brownlow Predictor with 17 votes.