THE ONE-TIME favourite in the NAB AFL Rising Star race may need a dominant end to the season on Saturday night just to remain a contender.
Port Adelaide inside midfielder and round one nominee Sam Powell-Pepper has wobbled down the stretch while rivals Andy McGrath and Ryan Burton have surged.
Carlton forward Charlie Curnow, one of five Blues nominated, has also kicked at least one goal in 10 straight matches to, at worst, establish himself as the standout fourth option.
While he'll miss the final round of the season with a foot injury, Hawthorn's Burton is the $1.48 favourite with CrownBet from Bomber McGrath ($2.75), with Powell-Pepper ($5.50) and Curnow ($7) the only other players given any chance.
Carlton pair Caleb Marchbank and Sam Petrevski-Seton and hard-running Magpie Tom Phillips are on the next line of betting at $81.
An AFL.com.au story in July highlighted the importance of a big finish in where a player ultimately ranks in Rising Star judges' thoughts.
Power coaches gave Powell-Pepper his first break for the season in round 21 – excluding the bye – after the 19-year-old had 10 disposals against St Kilda in round 18 before a team-low six the following week against Adelaide.
The No.18 choice in last year's AFL Draft had 16 possessions, plus a season-best 12 tackles, in his return game against the Western Bulldogs last week.
But Powell-Pepper is averaging only 12 touches (6.2 contested) in his past four outings – well below his season mark of 17 (8.5) – and failed to kick a goal in that time, after managing 15 in his first 16 games.
Essendon rested McGrath in rounds seven and 20, and he responded from the latter with a combined 50 disposals across the past two rounds. The diligent small defender also kept Adelaide wizard Eddie Betts goalless in round 21.
Second-year backman Burton played in the VFL in the opening round before becoming a Hawks regular. He was a critical factor in Hawthorn's season-igniting victory over Adelaide in round 14 and has rarely wavered in form.
Burton is averaging 21.3 disposals (5.1 contested) for the season at 81 per cent efficiency, while McGrath's impressive fortnight bolstered him to 19.6 (5.3) at 82 per cent efficiency.
Burton wins most key statistical categories over McGrath: metres gained (343.1 to 198.1), intercept possessions (5.9 to 5), score involvements (3.5 to 3.2), tackles (2.9 to 2.8), rebound 50s (3.8 to 2.4) and inside 50s (2.4 to 1.1).
The Rising Star wildcard is Curnow, whose second-half surge could sway judges, particularly if the key forward has a banner round 23 performance against flag fancy Sydney on Saturday.
The 20-year-old booted five goals in his first 10 contests in 2017, but kicked 13 in the next 10.
He has also become a contested ball beast in the past eight rounds, averaging nine per match – including a career-high 14 last week – after compiling only 4.9 across his opening 12 games.
