L-R: Jasmine Garner, Ellie Blackburn, Olivia Purcell, Aine McDonagh. Pictures: AFL Photos

A WHIRLWIND 2026 AFLW season will all come down to the final week of the home and away season.

While North Melbourne has all but sewn up the minor premiership, given its healthy percentage, teams from second to seventh can all move up and down, and four teams remain in the mix for the last finals position.

We've crunched the numbers – how is the top eight likely to shake out? 

Currently: First, 40 points, 239.7 per cent
Highest position: First
Lowest position: Third
Likely position: First

The Roos have Richmond in a Tigers home game at Windy Hill in their final match, and should overcome them fairly easily. It would take an absolute calamity and thumping victories from Melbourne (v Adelaide) and Geelong (v Western Bulldogs) in order to slide out of the top two.

Vikki Wall and Tahlia Randall celebrate a goal during the round 11 AFLW match between North Melbourne and Adelaide at North Hobart Oval, on October 25, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Currently: Second, 40 points, 168.8 per cent
Highest position: First
Lowest position: Third
Likely position: Second

The Cats will host the Western Bulldogs, and should be a class above the tenacious side, particularly given star Isabelle Pritchard is no certainty to play. If North Melbourne happens to lose, and Geelong wins, the Cats can pinch the minor premiership. A Melbourne win over Adelaide and a Geelong loss will likely see the Cats slide to third.

Nina Morrison, Mikayla Bowen, Georgie Prespakis and Chantal Mason celebrate during Geelong's clash against Fremantle in round 11, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

CATS v BULLDOGS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: Third, 36 points, 177.7 per cent
Highest position: First
Lowest position: Technically seventh, realistically fourth
Likely position: Third

The Dees are four points clear of sides sitting fourth to seventh, and their healthy percentage will likely save them from too much of a slide in the case of a loss against Adelaide (at Unley Oval). A win, coupled with losses by both Geelong and North Melbourne, could see them pinch first. 

Maggie Mahony, Aoife Horisk and Olivia Purcell celebrate during the AFLW Round 11 match between Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs at Mission Whitten Oval on October 24, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

CROWS v DEMONS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: Fourth, 32 points, 135.1 per cent
Highest position: Third
Lowest position: Seventh
Likely position: Fourth

The Suns face Greater Western Sydney at Henson Park on Sunday, and a win will go a long way to holding onto fourth spot and the double chance. Their percentage is only marginally ahead of Carlton and the Western Bulldogs, meaning they can't afford a significant loss to the Giants, otherwise a slide down to as low as seventh could be on the cards.

Sunny Lappin celebrates a goal during the round 11 AFLW match between Gold Coast and Richmond at People First Stadium, on October 24, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Currently: Fifth, 32 points, 131.9 per cent
Highest position: Third
Lowest position: Seventh
Likely position: Fifth or sixth

Carlton has had a few wobbles of late, and faces a resurgent Brisbane on its home deck. Technically, a monumental Melbourne loss and a Carlton win could see the Blues pinch third, but it's very unlikely. Gold Coast should be too good for GWS, and is likely to record a larger win in the process, meaning the Blues' chances of leapfrogging into fourth aren't high. 

Claudia Whitfort celebrates a goal with teammates during the AFLW Round 11 match between Carlton and GWS at Ikon Park on October 25, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

LIONS v BLUES Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: Sixth, 32 points, 131.9 per cent
Highest position: Third
Lowest position: Seventh
Likely position: Sixth or seventh

The Dogs will only be an outside chance of beating Geelong on the Cats' home ground, particularly if Isabelle Prichard (knee) doesn’t get up. A win would see them remain in the mix for top four, coming down to percentage, while a loss will likely result in an away elimination final.

Western Bulldogs sing the team song after the AFLW Round 10 match between Carlton and the Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park on October 17, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

CATS v BULLDOGS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: Seventh, 32 points, 115.9 per cent
Highest position: Fourth
Lowest position: Seventh
Likely position: Fifth to seventh

The Swans' lower percentage will count against them in the race for fourth spot, needing everyone to fall over in front of them in spectacular fashion to Steven Bradbury their way to the double chance. Sydney will face Fremantle at Cockburn ARC Oval in the last match of the round, and will know exactly what needs to be done in order to lock up a home elimination final – which is likely to come down to percentage. A double Carlton-Western Bulldogs loss is a live option, which would pave the way for fifth, and a percentage battle for fourth. Third is far too high of a percentage jump to be a viable option.

Sydney players sing the team song after the round 11 AFLW match between Sydney and West Coast at Henson Park, on October 25, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

DOCKERS v SWANS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: Eighth, 24 points, 102.5 per cent
Highest position: Eighth
Lowest position: 11th
Likely position: Eighth

The Hawks are on their own little island as the sole club with six wins, and destiny is firmly in their own hands. Facing West Coast at Sullivan Logistics Oval – which is certainly a banana peel game – a win would lock away eighth spot for Hawthorn, while a loss would open them up to slipping out of finals qualification, should one of Adelaide (v Melbourne), Fremantle (v Sydney) or even Port Adelaide (v St Kilda) secure a comfortable win.

Aine McDonagh (right) and Niamh Martin celebrate a goal during round five, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

EAGLES v HAWKS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: Ninth, 20 points, 100.4 per cent
Highest position: Eighth
Lowest position: 12th
Likely position: ninth to 10th

Unfortunately for Adelaide, after nearly knocking off North Melbourne last week, its final match is against Melbourne, albeit at Unley Oval. A win, coupled with a Hawthorn loss, would see eighth spot come down to percentage. But a Hawthorn win over West Coast in Perth would immediately rule the Crows out of the running.

Grace Kelly celebrates a goal with Sarah Goodwin and Ebony Marinoff during the AFLW Round 10 match between Adelaide and Gold Coast at Unley Oval on October 17, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

CROWS v DEMONS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: 10th, 20 points, 97.6 per cent
Highest position: Eighth
Lowest position: 12th
Likely position: ninth to 10th

In a very similar boat to Adelaide. If Hawthorn knocks off West Coast in Perth, the door to the top eight is shut, regardless of Fremantle's result against Sydney. A Hawthorn loss and a Dockers win would see Lisa Webb's team in a percentage tussle for the eight.

Mim Strom and Monique Bessen celebrate after the round 10 AFLW match between Fremantle and St Kilda at Cockburn ARC Oval, on October 18, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

DOCKERS v SWANS Get your AFLW tickets here

Currently: 11th, 20 points, 90.7 per cent
Highest position: Eighth
Lowest position: 14th
Likely position: ninth to 11th

The Power have the easiest match-up of the 11, facing the one-win St Kilda. Their percentage needs some remedial work, and they do like to put the foot down against weak opponents. A Hawthorn win v West Coast would immediately rule Port Adelaide out of the top eight. A Hawks loss would open the door, but the Power would have to win, make up percentage, and hope for Adelaide (v Melbourne) and Fremantle (v Sydney) to either lose or win by a tiny margin.

Port Adelaide players celebrate after the AFLW R9 match against West Coast at Alberton Oval on October 10, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Remaining ladder
Brisbane, 12th, 16 points and 101.5 per cent
West Coast, 13th, 16 points and 74.7 per cent
Richmond, 14th, 16 points and 71.0 per cent
GWS, 15th, eight points and 67.7 per cent
Essendon, 16th, four points and 56.6 per cent
Collingwood, 17th, four points and 52.5 per cent
St Kilda, 18th, four points and 43.5 per cent