FINALS are here, and there are some fascinating return fixtures set to take place across the weekend.
North Melbourne met Hawthorn last week, as did Carlton and West Coast, but tables have turned on the venues. Meanwhile Melbourne will be keen to have another crack at Brisbane without needing to factor in the travel.
St Kilda, however, will have to head to Norwood Oval to face Adelaide for its first AFLW final in its history, after percentage went against it last week.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7
North Melbourne v Hawthorn at Ikon Park, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: North Melbourne 10.7 (67) d Hawthorn 2.6 (18), round 12 2025
Head-to-head: North Melbourne – one win; Hawthorn – zero wins
Expect some tense energy heading into this one, given the physicality of last week's first-ever match between the two sides, and the kerfuffle post-match which led to the Hawks missing Jasmine Garner's guard of honour. Added to that, Hawthorn opted to give Emma Kearney some grief in an effort to minimise her impact, which led to plenty of chatter on the field. Although the sentiment was that 'poking the bear' is the wrong strategy when it comes to handling Kearney, it was her lowest possession and metres gained match of the year, so the Hawks shouldn't shy away from doubling down on the tactic.
Where the Hawks looked at their best last week was in the tight, defensive pressure, which hit its peak as the rain fell in Frankston. There is more rain on the forecast for Friday night, but things look a little different on the wider deck of Ikon Park. Its width is far harder to defend, and will create plenty of opportunities for North Melbourne to escape danger and send the ball into attack. The Roos starve opposition teams of contested footy, and win that themselves before propelling forward, which gives forwards like Tahlia Randall and Emma King plenty of looks.
Tip: The Roos will earn the week off. North Melbourne by 40 points.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8
Carlton v West Coast at Ikon Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Carlton 6.6 (42) d West Coast 3.4 (22), round 12 2025
Head-to-head: Carlton – two wins; West Coast – zero wins
Another matchup that happened last week, Carlton and West Coast are ready to square off once more. The Eagles, although smarting from a final quarter capitulation on Friday, will be pleased to regain tough second year player Jess Rentsch, while the Blues will enjoy returning to their home deck. Rentsch has the potential to play a significant role, typically sent to slow dangerous opposition players, and likely to be handed the task on someone like Mimi Hill or Dayna Finn in order to slow the Blues' ball movement. What will be most important for West Coast, however, is that intangible sense of belief. Although last week's game was lost in that last quarter, the Eagles have had some immense runs home that have won them matches, and it is that mindset – that things are never over – that they must take into its first final.
Carlton is quick, loves the outside ball, and wants it in the hands of Finn, Hill, and Erone Fitzpatrick. The trio is crucial to the club's damaging style, but it often begins in the hands of intercepting defenders like Harriet Cordner and Maddy Hendrie. For this reason, the Eagles need to be careful with the way they move forward, preventing the latter pair from gathering confidence throughout the game. The other major factor is the forecast – wet weather is on the radar, and that has been a bit of an Achilles heel for the Eagles. Although they are a highly contested team, it has been in wet conditions where they have come undone.
Tip: The Blues will snatch it. Carlton by three points.
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 9
Melbourne v Brisbane at Ikon Park, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Brisbane 6.9 (45) d Melbourne 5.6 (36), round 11 2025
Head-to-head: Melbourne – six wins; Brisbane – five wins
It was an incredibly physical, intense game of footy last time these sides met a mere fortnight ago, and now they're ready to do battle again. Brisbane's conversion is the elephant in the room, both during that match (it kicked 1.7 to half time), and in its last seven weeks. The club is working through that pain point, but only time will tell under the heat of a final against the quality that is Melbourne's defence. Notably, teams are converting inside 50s to goal just 11.9 per cent of the time against the Demons, making that the mental game Brisbane must play with itself.
The Lions work hard to get their uncontested game going – Sophie Conway and Jade Ellenger being key to that – and last week Collingwood did a good job of taking them on one-on-one across the ground. This is unlikely something Melbourne would commit to, but finding that balance between minimising space and time, and keeping the game on its own terms will be important. The Demons are keen to work the ball out of contest by hand before pulling the trigger, while Brisbane is more kick happy. Finding that disruption between contest and outside ball could be make-or-break for the Lions when it comes to slowing Melbourne's slick movement. Notably, Dakota Davidson has kicked nine goals against Melbourne – more than any other player against the Dees.
Tip: The Lions have found their groove. Brisbane by nine points.
Adelaide v St Kilda at Norwood Oval, 2.35pm ACDT
Last time they met: St Kilda 6.5 (41) d Adelaide 2.7 (19), round one 2025
Head-to-head: Adelaide – five wins; St Kilda – one win
When these sides faced off in round one, Adelaide looked slow and unfit, and although it got the ball into the attacking arc 50 times, it seemed impotent ahead of the ball. While the Crows haven't necessarily turned that blip into the dominant form we've known from them in the past, there has been a sense of strength and experience that they took into last week's win over Fremantle, and will no doubt do so into this final. St Kilda, meanwhile, gave up inside 50s en masse but stood strong behind the ball. That defensive style has been a theme of the Saints' season, allowing opposition teams a massive 38.8 per game, leading them to live dangerously in defence, and putting a mountain of pressure on their back five.
The narrow ground of Norwood Oval will work for St Kilda's high-pressure style, with its tackling game sure to worry the Crows with ball in hand. Bringing that pressure to relieve stress in dangerous positions close to goal will be crucial. For Adelaide, it simply becomes about making the most of those opportunities in attack. Caitlin Gould has worked back into form following a long-term injury, and Eloise Jones has been the star of Adelaide's forward line, but there will be a real need for midfielders like Anne Hatchard and Danielle Ponter to get dangerous too. A strong start to the game will be high on St Kilda's priority list as well, following very quiet first quarters over the last fortnight.
Tip: The Crows will use their finals experience to their advantage. Adelaide by 15 points.
