HAWTHORN and Carlton will face off for the second time this year, but with opposite momentum.

HAWKS v BLUES Follow it LIVE

The Blues are up and about, confident in the fast, fun footy they've been playing, and ready to do it all again on their home deck despite technically being the away team, while the Hawks are being stretched from every possible angle.

Where and when: Ikon Park, Saturday November 15, 7.15pm AEDT

Head-to-head: Hawthorn – two wins, Carlton – zero wins

Last time they met: Hawthorn 3.12 (30) d Carlton 2.10 (22), round two, 2025

Aine McDonagh saved the day for Hawthorn with a goal from a free kick following a dour, high-pressure clash in Frankston. The game was the high water mark of conversations around the new holding the ball interpretation, and Hawks coach Daniel Webster commented post-match that some of the free kicks paid were "way too hot". Emily Bates was immense for the home side with 25 disposals, five clearances, and a goal, leading Hawthorn's midfield, while it was Harriet Cordner (13 intercepts) who stood tallest for Carlton. Despite the loss, it was a signal toward the Blues' game style which has served them well this year – moving the ball with speed into dangerous parts of the ground – but they just couldn't quite make the most of the chances they created.

KEY MATCH-UP

Tamara Smith v Sophie McKay

In just 13 games Sophie McKay has solidified herself as a crucial cog in Carlton's attacking game, so much so that it is likely Hawthorn will send its best small lockdown defender in Tamara Smith to her for this do-or-die final.

When they played back in round two, McKay was still finding her feet, and looked lively but lacked the final polish to do the damage on the scoreboard. That has all changed, with the young gun dobbing her first career goal the following week, and having kicked 14 for the season to date. And the awe of finals hasn't tempered her verve, with five score involvements and two goals in last week's dominant – and wet – elimination final performance.

Smith is tough, physical, and not afraid to do what she can to get under an opponent's skin, and this is exactly what the Hawks need to minimise, if not nullify, McKay's impact.

WHERE IT WILL BE WON

The Hawks have been uncomfortably stretched when it comes to player availability – particularly for tall options – and this looms as a dangerous area for Webster and co. to contend with. While last week the side did an impressive job of restricting North Melbourne's ball movement despite that lack of height, what lacked was its own capacity to get dangerous with ball in hand. Finding some thoughtful movement from stoppage will be essential, rather than the dump kicking for territory that creeped into last week's loss.

Carlton's backline has made big strides this year when it comes to using its interceptors as launchpads into attacking movement, so hopeful kicks forward are likely to be picked off by the likes of Harriet Cordner and Maddie Hendrie, and sent back into the Blues' hands. Given the form of Cordner in particular, could the Hawks opt to send someone to occupy her, or are they too thin on the ground to sacrifice a forward to a largely defensive role?

The ruck is another area where the Hawks have been challenged this season, due to injuries to Lucy Wales and first-year tall Elli Symonds. Because of this, there is a real freedom offered to Carlton coach Mathew Buck. Jess Good's form through the ruck has been strong – especially in the wet last week – leaving Breann Harrington to go forward and help stretch Hawthorn's backline alongside Tara Bohanna, Poppy Scholz, and Mia Austin.

And these sides experience opposing fortunes as games wear on. The Hawks generally do their damage in the middle two quarters, before dropping away significantly in final quarters – essentially, they are up for the fight but tire late – while the Blues seem to gather momentum throughout matches. The latter has not lost a third quarter since round eight, and last week recorded its highest ever individual quarter score (38 points) in the third term.

PREDICTION

The Blues are this finals series' good news story. Carlton by 10 points.

STRAIGHT sets. Again.

It was exactly what Hawthorn was hoping to avoid, but Carlton's spirited, attacking game style led by an exciting array of young talent was just too much to overcome, resulting in the Blues' 11.13 (79) to 4.9 (33) victory as the sun set over Ikon Park on Saturday evening.

HAWKS v BLUES Full match coverage and stats

The 46-point margin equals Carlton's biggest wins of this season – and makes it equal-third in the club's all-time wins.

Led by captain Abbie McKay (25 disposals, one goal) on her 25th birthday and vice-captain Mimi Hill (27 disposals, one goal), the Blues brought the energy and enthusiasm they've become known for, combined with quick ball movement and attacking spread.

The Hawks simply had no answers and it hands the club the unwanted record of back-to-back winless finals series' following top-four finishes.

It was exacerbated by a falcon suffered by vice-captain Eliza West, resulting in her being ruled out early in the second half with concussion.

Sophie McKay (seven marks, three goals), Mia Austin (nine disposals, two goals) and Poppy Scholz (16 disposals, one goal) led the forward line, enjoying the supply from teammates higher up the field.

It was fast and clean, highlighted by centre stoppage control and plenty of run from the midfield group.

Following a scoreless opening quarter, in which it conceded a club-high 31 points, Hawthorn coach Daniel Webster gave his players a stern talking to in the break before allowing them to split into their line groups.

And it worked, in a sense. The Hawks won both the inside 50 and contested possession counts by 14 in the following term.

But for all of Hawthorn's dominance in the second quarter as it fought its way back into the game, it only won the quarter by four points because of a misfiring radar in front of goal.

Carrying a knee injury from earlier in the season and a groin concern picked up last week, midfield dynamo Jasmine Fleming (10 disposals, one goal) started the game at full forward, and roamed the attacking arc for much of the game alongside another somewhat hobbled Hawk in Aine McDonagh (14 disposals, one goal).

Niggles aside, the pair offered a sense of danger once Hawthorn established some forward territory. This required patience, however, as the side failed to register an inside 50 until 12 minutes into the match – by then Carlton had already registered 11 of its own and kicked 3.5 (23).

It was simply too much reliance on too few in attack – a theme of Hawthorn's season – and unless the ball was in McDonagh or Fleming's hands, there wasn't a real sense of scoring potential.

Save for a 10-minute patch in the second term, Carlton's array of attacking options caused disorganisation among an under-strength Hawks defence.

Some sort of head knock
Early in the third term, as Hawthorn vice-captain Eliza West was putting everything on the line to try and get her team back into the game, there was some unfortunate friendly fire that – eventually – forced her from the field. In tight deep in defence, the Hawks were trying to get the ball out of a worrisome position. Tilly Lucas-Rodd slammed it on the boot and, unfortunately, hit West in the face from close range. It took a few minutes for the doctors to get West from the field to undergo a head injury assessment. She ultimately failed to return to the field.

Young Blues get dangerous
Plenty has been made of the young contingent at Carlton propelling the side back into finals form, and that was absolutely on show on Saturday evening. The first three goals of the game came from Mia Austin (21 years old), Sophie McKay (19) and Poppy Scholz (18). The trio in attack created endless headaches for Hawthorn's backline, and stood up to whatever was thrown their way to finish with a combined six goals in the win. It bodes well for the Blues' future, with budding stars of the game getting on the end of exciting ball movement.

Up next
Carlton will roll onto a preliminary final date with Brisbane at Brighton Homes Arena on Saturday night, with the hopes of progressing to a Grand Final. It is just the second time the Blues have reached a preliminary final in their 10 seasons in the AFLW, while it's unfortunately the end of the road for Hawthorn, with attention now turning to the upcoming trade period and draft.

HAWTHORN               0.0    2.4    2.6   4.9 (33)
CARLTON                     4.7    6.7    10.10   11.13 (79)

GOALS 
Hawthorn: Flockart, Fleming, McDonagh, Stone
Carlton: S.McKay 3, Austin 2, Finn 2, Scholz, Hill, A.McKay, Goss

BEST 
Hawthorn: Lucas-Rodd, Fleming, West, Elliott
Carlton: Hill, Scholz, A.McKay, Cordner, S.McKay, Goss

INJURIES 
Hawthorn: Eliza West (concussion)
Carlton: Nil

Crowd: 5,645 at Ikon Park